Clustered K nearest neighbor algorithm for daily inflow forecasting

Instance based learning (IBL) algorithms are a common choice among data driven algorithms for inflow forecasting. They are based on the similarity principle and prediction is made by the finite number of similar neighbors. In this sense, the similarity of a query instance is estimated according to the closeness of its feature vector with those of data available in calibration data. As the selected attributes in the feature vector are determined overall on calibration data, there may be some data points whose outputs do not follow the considered attributes. In fact, output values of these inconsistent data points may be a function of some other attributes which were not considered. Therefore, for some query instances, the inconsistent points may be appeared as the neighbors while they may not really be neighbor to the query instance. They can deteriorate forecasting results especially if they are very close to the query instance with the current similarity definition. In this study a clustered K nearest neighbor (CKNN) algorithm is introduced which can capture these inconsistent data points. Similar to the inconsistent data points, CKNN can be also robust against noisy data. The proposed algorithm was shown to be effective for a synthetic linear data set corrupted by noise. In addition, the utility of the algorithm was demonstrated for daily inflow forecasting of the Karoon1 reservoir located in Iran.WatermanagementCivil Engineering and Geoscience

The relationship between tumor inflammatory cell infiltrate and outcome in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

<p>Background: The tumor-associated inflammatory cell infiltrate is recognized to have prognostic value in various common solid tumors. However, the prognostic value of the tumor inflammatory cell infiltrate has not been established in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) nor has its relationship with the systemic inflammatory response.</p> <p>Methods: Retrospective study was made of 173 patients who underwent surgery between 1997 and 2009. Routine pathology specimens were scored according to density of the tumor inflammatory cell infiltrate, and biochemical data were collected preoperatively.</p> <p>Results: Low-grade tumor inflammatory cell infiltrate was associated with earlier tumor recurrence (P < 0.001) and particularly in the liver (P = 0.027). It was also associated with T3 tumors (P < 0.05), lymph node involvement (P < 0.05), and resection margin involvement (P < 0.05). On univariate survival analysis, age <65 years (P < 0.05), mGPS (P < 0.001), increased tumor stage (P < 0.01), nodal involvement (P < 0.01), size (P < 0.05), grade (P < 0.05), perineural invasion (P < 0.05), venous invasion (P < 0.01), resection margin involvement (P ≤ 0.001), vascular reconstruction (P < 0.05), and no adjuvant chemotherapy (P < 0.05) were associated with poor survival. In contrast, high-grade tumor inflammatory cell infiltrate was associated with better survival (P < 0.001). On multivariate survival analysis, mGPS [hazard ratio (HR): 1.77, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI): 1.19–2.62, P = 0.005], tumor stage (HR: 2.21, 95 % CI: 1.16–4.23, P = 0.016), resection margin involvement (HR: 2.19, 95 % CI: 1.41–3.44, P = 0.001), venous invasion (HR: 1.79, 95 % CI: 1.22–2.63, P = 0.003), tumor inflammatory cell infiltrate (HR: 0.37, 95 % CI: 0.25–0.55, P = 0.0001), and adjuvant chemotherapy (P = 0.04) were independently prognostic.</p> <p>Conclusions: The results of the study show, for the first time, that the presence of a high-grade tumor inflammatory cell infiltrate is an independent predictor of prolonged overall survival following resection for PDAC. Furthermore, measures of the local and the systemic inflammatory response were inversely associated.</p&gt

Electroweak parameters of the z0 resonance and the standard model

Contains fulltext : 124399.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Using GRADE methodology for the development of public health guidelines for the prevention and treatment of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men and transgender people

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The World Health Organization (WHO) Department of HIV/AIDS led the development of public health guidelines for delivering an evidence-based, essential package of interventions for the prevention and treatment of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender people in the health sector in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this paper is to review the methodological challenges faced and solutions applied during the development of the guidelines.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The development of the guidelines followed the WHO guideline development process, which utilizes the GRADE approach. We identified, categorized and labeled the challenges identified in the guidelines development process and described the solutions through an interactive process of in-person and electronic communication.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We describe how we dealt with the following challenges: (1) heterogeneous and complex interventions; (2) paucity of trial data; (3) selecting outcomes of interest; (4) using indirect evidence; (5) integrating values and preferences; (6) considering resource use; (7) addressing social and legal barriers; (8) wording of recommendations; and (9) developing global guidelines.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We were able to successfully apply the GRADE approach for developing recommendations for public health interventions. Applying the general principles of the approach while carefully considering specific challenges can enhance both the process and the outcome of guideline development.</p

GWAS in autoimmune thyroid disease: redefining our understanding of pathogenesis

The ability of the immune system to protect the body from attack by foreign antigens is essential for human survival. The immune system can, however, start to attack the body's own organs. An autoimmune response against components of the thyroid gland affects 2-5 of the general population. Considerable familial clustering is also observed in autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD). Teasing out the genetic contribution to AITD over the past 40 years has helped unravel how immune disruption leads to disease onset. Breakthroughs in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the past decade have facilitated screening of a greater proportion of the genome, leading to the identification of a before unimaginable number of AITD susceptibility loci. This Review will focus on the new susceptibility loci identified by GWAS, what insights these loci provide about the pathogenesis of AITD and how genetic susceptibility loci shared between different autoimmune diseases could help explain disease co-clustering within individuals and families. This Review also discusses where future efforts should be focused to translate this step forward in our understanding of the genetic contribution to AITD into a better understanding of disease presentation and progression, and improved therapeutic options.© 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved