Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe

This is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this recordCode and data availability: The code used to apply the ClimWIP method is publicly available via the ESMValTool (https://docs.esmvaltool.org/en/latest/recipes/recipe_climwip.html, ESMValTool, 2022). The data used in this study are available through the ESGF data portal at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ (CMIP, 2022). Further assessment plots for the models used in this paper are available on GitHub at https://github.com/tepmo42/cmip6_european_assessment (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.782884, Palmer et al., 2023), as is a spreadsheet of all available assessments (for Europe) carried out for CMIP6 models to date. The RAPID-MOC monitoring project is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and data (Frajka-Williams et al., 2021). E-OBS data (v.14.0, Cornes et al., 2018) can be found at https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php, in Cornes et al. (2018). The HadISST dataset (Rayner et al., 2003) is publicly available for download at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. The ERA5 data (Hersbach et al., 2020) are available for download through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (2017) at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home.We have created a performance-based assessment of CMIP6 models for Europe that can be used to inform the sub-selection of models for this region. Our assessment covers criteria indicative of the ability of individual models to capture a range of large-scale processes that are important for the representation of present-day European climate. We use this study to provide examples of how this performance-based assessment may be applied to a multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 models to (a) filter the ensemble for performance against these climatological and processed-based criteria and (b) create a smaller subset of models based on performance that also maintains model diversity and the filtered projection range as far as possible. Filtering by excluding the least-realistic models leads to higher-sensitivity models remaining in the ensemble as an emergent consequence of the assessment. This results in both the 25th percentile and the median of the projected temperature range being shifted towards greater warming for the filtered set of models. We also weight the unfiltered ensemble against global trends. In contrast, this shifts the distribution towards less warming. This highlights a tension for regional model selection in terms of selection based on regional climate processes versus the global mean warming trend.European Union Horizon 2020Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)European Research Council (ERC

Selecting CMIP5 GCMs for downscaling over multiple regions

The unprecedented availability of 6-hourly data from a multi-model GCM ensemble in the CMIP5 data archive presents the new opportunity to dynamically downscale multiple GCMs to develop high-resolution climate projections relevant to detailed assessment of climate vulnerability and climate change impacts. This enables the development of high resolution projections derived from the same set of models that are used to characterise the range of future climate changes at the global and large-scale, and as assessed in the IPCC AR5. However, the technical and human resource required to dynamically-downscale the full CMIP5 ensemble are significant and not necessary if the aim is to develop scenarios covering a representative range of future climate conditions relevant to a climate change risk assessment. This paper illustrates a methodology for selecting from the available CMIP5 models in order to identify a set of 8–10 GCMs for use in regional climate change assessments. The selection focuses on their suitability across multiple regions—Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa. The selection (a) avoids the inclusion of the least realistic models for each region and (b) simultaneously captures the maximum possible range of changes in surface temperature and precipitation for three continental-scale regions. We find that, of the CMIP5 GCMs with 6-hourly fields available, three simulate the key regional aspects of climate sufficiently poorly that we consider the projections from those models ‘implausible’ (MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and IPSL-CM5B-LR). From the remaining models, we demonstrate a selection methodology which avoids the poorest models by including them in the set only if their exclusion would significantly reduce the range of projections sampled. The result of this process is a set of models suitable for using to generate downscaled climate change information for a consistent multi-regional assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation

Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change

Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspotinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dynamical differences between short and long blocks in the Northern Hemisphere

Blocking events are persistent weather systems that strongly impact daily weather and more importantly our societies. One reason behind their strong impact is their potential long duration, as blocking events can last from 5 days up to four-five weeks. However, the mechanisms explaining this difference of duration have not been properly studied yet. Here, we investigate the differences between short blocks, which last 5 days, and long blocks, which last at least 10 days. We take a broad hemispheric and annual approach to this question, while recognizing that other specific factors may play a role in particular region and seasons. We show that long blocks often involve cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, while short blocks are equally associated with cyclonic and anticyclonic wave breaking. This main result is reproduced in a coupled climate model ensemble. The lower number of long anticyclonic blocks might be due to three main reasons: One/the anticyclone is reinforced on the downstream side during anticyclonic blocks which is less conducive to persistence; two/positive synoptic eddy feedback tends to force the mean zonal wind toward a more northward position during anticyclonic blocks, whereas it forces the mean zonal wind to the south of the block during cyclonic blocks, which has been previously shown to be associated with more persistent weather patterns; three/particularly sustained eddy feedback is needed to maintain long anticyclonic blocks

Habituation revisited: an updated and revised description of the behavioural characteristics of habituation

The most commonly cited descriptions of the behavioral characteristics of habituation come from two papers published almost 40 years ago [Groves, P. M., & Thompson, R. F. (1970). Habituation: A dual-process theory. Psychological Review, 77, 419-450; Thompson, R. F., & Spencer, W. A. (1966). Habituation: A model phenomenon for the study of neuronal substrates of behavior. Psychological Review, 73,16-43]. in August 2007, the authors of this review. who study habituation in a wide range of species and paradigms, met to discuss their work on habituation and to revisit and refine the characteristics of habituation. This review offers a re-evaluation of the characteristics of habituation in light of these discussions. We made substantial changes to only a few of the characteristics, usually to add new information and expand upon the description rather than to substantially alter the original point. One additional characteristic, relating to long-term habituation, was added. This article thus provides a modern summary of the characteristics defining habituation, and can serve as a convenient primer for those whose research involves stimulus repetition