Turkey as a Regional Natural Gas Hub: Myth or Reality? An Analysis of the Regional Gas Market Outlook, Beyond the Mainstream Rhetoric

Over the last years Turkey has been increasingly associated in the international political and economic debate with concepts such as gas corridor and gas hub. This characterization of Turkey is clearly mainly due to its unique geographical position at the crossroads the Caspian region, the Middle East and Europe. In particular, this argument is often advanced in the political discussion on the rise of Turkey as a leading regional power and in the debate on the future prospects for the EU-Turkey relations. However, by going beyond the political slogans and by focusing on the concrete gas realities around Turkey this picture could be seriously put into question. The aim of this paper is to explore the real potential role of Turkey in the regional gas markets, firstly focusing on the current situation of gas producing countries around Turkey and then moving to the future prospects of gas cooperation in the region. To this end, the paper will provide an assessment of both the current situation and outlook of gas markets in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, Iran, Israel and Cyprus, subsequently providing a discussion of the future prospects of the Southern Gas Corridor and of the potential Eastern Mediterranean Gas Corridor. This analysis will indicate that Turkey will hardly have the potential to become a regional gas hub in the medium term (up to 2020-2025). However, Turkey could have the potential to play an important role in the regional gas markets in the longer term (after 2025-2030) if a number of infrastructural, commercial and political barriers described in the paper are overcome and -last but not the least- if the EU gas demand recovers and the EU market actually needs more natural gas supplies

Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?

The increase in liquefied natural gas trade has accelerated the integration of previously segmented markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. This paper provides evidence on the integration of the transatlantic natural gas market. We test the theoretical proposition that in integrating markets commodity prices should move closer than before. Using 2,059 pairs of daily spot prices for natural gas in North America and Europe we investigate price dynamics covering the period from 1999 until 2008. We apply the Kalman Filter technique to gain detailed information on trends inherent over time. Results suggest an increasing convergence of spot prices on either side of the Atlantic Basin

Data assimilation of surface displacements to improve geomechanical parameters of gas storage reservoirs

none6siAlthough the beginning of reservoir geomechanics dates back to the late 1960s, only recently stochastical geomechanical modelling has been introduced into the general framework of reservoir operational planning. In this study, the ensemble smoother (ES) algorithm, i.e., an ensemble-based data assimilation method, is employed to reduce the uncertainty of the constitutive parameters characterizing the geomechanical model of an underground gas storage (UGS) field situated in the upper Adriatic sedimentary basin (Italy), the Lombardia UGS. The model is based on a nonlinear transversely isotropic stress-strain constitutive law and is solved by 3-D finite elements. The Lombardia UGS experiences seasonal pore pressure change caused by fluid extraction/injection leading to land settlement/upheaval. The available observations consist of vertical and horizontal time-lapse displacements accurately measured by persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) on RADARSAT scenes acquired between 2003 and 2008. The positive outcome of preliminary tests on simplified cases has supported the use of the ES to jointly assimilate vertical and horizontal displacements. The ES approach is shown to effectively reduce the spread of the uncertain parameters, i.e., the Poisson’s ratio, the ratio between the horizontal and vertical Young and shear moduli, and the ratio between the virgin loading (I cycle) and unloading/reloading (II cycle) compressibility. The outcomes of the numerical simulations point out that the updated parameters depend on the assimilated measurement locations as well as the error associated to the PSI measurements. The parameter estimation may be improved by taking into account possible model and/or observation biases along with the use of an assimilation approach, e.g., the Iterative ensemble smoother, more appropriate for nonlinear problems.noneZoccarato, C; Baù, D.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Alzraiee, A.; Teatini, P.Zoccarato, Claudia; Bau', Domenico; Ferronato, Massimiliano; Gambolati, Giuseppe; Alzraiee, A.; Teatini, Pietr