A service oriented virtual environment for complex system analysis: Preliminary report

Distributed virtual simulation is a capability that is increasing in demand within the automotive manufacturing industry. The distributed and networked approach to system level design and simulation stands to benefit from a unifying relational oriented modeling and simulation framework due to the large number of simulation technologies that must be integrated. This will also permit innovative use of existing independent simulations for increased concurrency in design and verification and validation. Through relational orientation, high level syntax and semantics for representing models and simulations have been developed for proof of concept analysis. This paper presents an approach to drive a process of analysis of the vehicle as a complex system through the combination of a relational trade-off analysis framework and a distributed simulation execution delivered through a service-oriented integration architecture. This promises to provide a rigorous, traceable and agile approach to early stage conceptual vehicle design and analysis

Moist convection and its upscale effects in simulations of the Indian monsoon with explicit and parametrised convection

In common with many global models, the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulations show large errors in Indian summer monsoon rainfall, with a wet bias over the equatorial Indian Ocean, a dry bias over India, and with too weak low-level flow into India. The representation of moist convection is a dominant source of error in global models, where convection must be parametrised, with the errors growing quickly enough to affect both weather and climate simulations. Here we use the first multi- week continental-scale MetUM simulations over India, with grid-spacings that allow explicit convection, to examine how convective parametrisation contributes to model biases in the region. Some biases are improved in the convection-permitting simulations with more intense rainfall over India, a later peak in the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over land, and a reduced positive rainfall bias over the Indian Ocean. The simulations suggest that the reduced rainfall over the Indian Ocean leads to an enhanced monsoon circulation and transport of moisture into India. Increases in latent heating associated with increased convection over land deepen the monsoon trough and enhance water vapour transport into the continent. In addition, delayed continental convection allows greater surface insolation and, along with the same rain falling in more intense bursts, generates a drier land surface. This increases land-sea temperature contrasts, and further enhances onshore flow. Changes in the low-level water vapour advection into India are dominated by these changes to the flow, rather than to the moisture content in the flow. The results demonstrate the need to improve the representations of convection over both land and oceans to improve simulations of the monsoon

Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly understood and forecast skill is limited. Key processes for the lifecycle of two storms are investigated using Met Office Unified Model convection-permitting simulations with 1.5 km horizontal gridspacing. The two cases are analysed alongside a simulation of a period with no storms to assess the roles of the lake–land breeze, downslope mountain winds, prevailing large-scale winds and moisture availability. Whilst seasonal changes in large-scale moisture availability play a key role in storm development, the lake–land breeze circulation is a major control on the initiation location, timing and propagation of convection. In the dry season, opposing offshore winds form a bulge of moist air above the lake surface overnight that extends from the surface to ~1.5 km and may trigger storms in high CAPE/low CIN environments. Such a feature has not been explicitly observed or modelled in previous literature. Storms over land on the preceding day are shown to alter the local atmospheric moisture and circulation to promote storm formation over the lake. The variety of initiation processes and differing characteristics of just two storms analysed here show that the mean diurnal cycle over Lake Victoria alone is inadequate to fully understand storm formation. Knowledge of daily changes in local-scale moisture variability and circulations are key for skilful forecasts over the lake

Spatial analysis of bladder, kidney, and pancreatic cancer on upper Cape Cod: an application of generalized additive models to case-control data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 1988, elevated cancer incidence in upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts prompted a large epidemiological study of nine cancers to investigate possible environmental risk factors. Positive associations were observed, but explained only a portion of the excess cancer incidence. This case-control study provided detailed information on individual-level covariates and residential history that can be spatially analyzed using generalized additive models (GAMs) and geographical information systems (GIS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated the association between residence and bladder, kidney, and pancreatic cancer on upper Cape Cod. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using GAMs, smoothing on location. A 40-year residential history allowed for latency restrictions. We mapped spatially continuous odds ratios using GIS and identified statistically significant clusters using permutation tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Maps of bladder cancer are essentially flat ignoring latency, but show a statistically significant hot spot near known Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR) groundwater plumes when 15 years latency is assumed. The kidney cancer map shows significantly increased ORs in the south of the study area and decreased ORs in the north.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Spatial epidemiology using individual level data from population-based studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of bladder cancer near MMR plumes that suggest further investigation using detailed exposure modeling.</p

Nutrition Strategies for Triathlon

Contemporary sports nutrition guidelines recommend that each athlete develop a personalised, periodised and practical approach to eating that allows him or her to train hard, recover and adapt optimally, stay free of illness and injury and compete at their best at peak races. Competitive triathletes undertake a heavy training programme to prepare for three different sports while undertaking races varying in duration from 20 min to 10 h. The everyday diet should be adequate in energy availability, provide CHO in varying amounts and timing around workouts according to the benefits of training with low or high CHO availability and spread high-quality protein over the day to maximise the adaptive response to each session. Race nutrition requires a targeted and well-practised plan that maintains fuel and hydration goals over the duration of the specific event, according to the opportunities provided by the race and other challenges, such as a hot environment. Supplements and sports foods can make a small contribution to a sports nutrition plan, when medical supplements are used under supervision to prevent/treat nutrient deficiencies (e.g. iron or vitamin D) or when sports foods provide a convenient source of nutrients when it is impractical to eat whole foods. Finally, a few evidence-based performance supplements may contribute to optimal race performance when used according to best practice protocols to suit the triathlete’s goals and individual responsiveness

Evaluating Health Workers' Potential Resistance to New Interventions: A Role for Discrete Choice Experiments

BACKGROUND: The currently recommended approach for preventing malaria in pregnancy (MiP), intermittent preventive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP-IPT), has been questioned due to the spread of resistance to SP. Whilst trials are underway to test the efficacy of future alternative approaches, it is important to start exploring the feasibility of their implementation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to assess the potential resistance of health workers to changing strategies for control of MiP. In Ashanti region in Ghana, 133 antenatal clinic health workers were presented with 16 choice sets of two alternative policy options, each consisting of a bundle of six attributes representing certain clinical guidelines for controlling MiP (type of approach and drug used), possible associated maternal and neo-natal outcomes, workload and financial incentives. The data were analysed using a random effects logit model. Overall, staff showed a preference for a curative approach with pregnant women tested for malaria parasites and treated only if positive, compared to a preventive approach (OR 1.6; p = 0.001). Increasing the incidence of low birth weight or severe anaemia by 1% would reduce the odds of preferring an approach by 18% and 10% respectively. Midwives were more resistant to potential changes to current guidelines than lower-level cadres. CONCLUSIONS: In Ashanti Region, resistance to change by antenatal clinic workers from a policy of SP-IPT to IST would generally be low, and it would disappear amongst midwives if health outcomes for the mother and baby were improved by the new strategy. DCEs are a promising approach to identifying factors that will increase the likelihood of effective implementation of new interventions immediately after their efficacy has been proven

Patterns of Pacific decadal variability recorded by Indian Ocean corals

We investigate Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals recorded by two bimonthly resolved coral δ18O series from La Réunion and Ifaty (West Madagascar), Indian Ocean from 1882 to 1993. To isolate the main PDO frequencies, we apply a band pass filter to the time series passing only periodicities from 16 to 28 years. We investigate the covariance patterns of the coral time series with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In addition, the empirical orthogonal functions of the filtered SST and SLP fields (single and coupled) are related to the filtered coral times series. The covariance maps show the typical PDO pattern for SST and SLP, confirming the coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Both corals show the strongest signal in boreal summer. The La Réunion (Ifaty) coral better records SST (SLP) than SLP (SST) pattern variability. We suggest that the filtered La Réunion coral δ18O represents δ18O of seawater that varies with the South Equatorial Current, which, in turn, is linked with the SST PDO. The filtered Ifaty coral δ18O represents SST and is remotely linked with the SLP PDO variability. A combined coral record of the Ifaty and La Réunion boreal summer δ18O series explains about 64% of the variance of the coupled SST/SLP PDO time series

Optimal Conservation of Migratory Species

Background. Migratory animals comprise a significant portion of biodiversity worldwide with annual investment for their conservation exceeding several billion dollars. Designing effective conservation plans presents enormous challenges. Migratory species are influenced by multiple events across land and sea-regions that are often separated by thousands of kilometres and span international borders. To date, conservation strategies for migratory species fail to take into account how migratory animals are spatially connected between different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. migratory connectivity) bringing into question the utility and efficiency of current conservation efforts. Methodology/Principal Findings. Here, we report the first framework for determining an optimal conservation strategy for a migratory species. Employing a decision theoretic approach using dynamic optimization, we address the problem of how to allocate resources for habitat conservation for a Neotropical-Nearctic migratory bird, the American redstart Setophaga ruticilla, whose winter habitat is under threat. Our first conservation strategy used the acquisition of winter habitat based on land cost, relative bird density, and the rate of habitat loss to maximize the abundance of birds on the wintering grounds. Our second strategy maximized bird abundance across the entire range of the species by adding the constraint of maintaining a minimum percentage of birds within each breeding region in North America using information on migratory connectivity as estimated from stable-hydrogen isotopes in feathers. We show that failure to take into account migratory connectivity may doom some regional populations to extinction, whereas including information on migratory connectivity results in the protection of the species across its entire range. Conclusions/Significance. We demonstrate that conservation strategies for migratory animals depend critically upon two factors: knowledge of migratory connectivity and the correct statement of the conservation problem. Our framework can be used to identify efficient conservation strategies for migratory taxa worldwide, including insects, birds, mammals, and marine organisms

Effect of Mycophenolate Mofetil on Plasma Bioelements in Renal Transplant Recipients

The proper concentrations of plasma bioelements may favorably reduce the incidence of metabolic disorders, which often occur during immunosuppressive therapy. Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) is currently one of the most frequently administered immunosuppressive agents; however, MMF treatment is often related to gastrointestinal side effects. The aim of this study was thus to verify whether the MMF treatment itself, or its metabolite pharmacokinetics, has an effect on the concentrations of plasma bioelements. To determine this, the effect of MMF on the levels of both major (sodium [Na], potassium [K], calcium [Ca], magnesium [Mg]), and trace (iron [Fe], zinc [Zn], copper [Cu]) plasma bioelements in 61 renal transplant recipients was assessed in comparison to a control group (n = 45). The pharmacokinetic parameters of mycophenolic acid were determined by the high-performance liquid chromatography method. All patients filled out a 24-h diet history questionnaire. The results showed high plasma concentrations of Fe and low plasma concentrations of Mg and Zn as compared with diagnostic norms. The patients treated with MMF had significantly lower plasma Na (P < 0.001) and significantly higher plasma Zn (P = 0.030) and Cu concentrations (P < 0.001). In conclusion, MMF treatment was found to affect plasma Fe, Zn, and Cu levels by increasing their concentrations while decreasing the plasma Na concentration. Mg and Zn deficiencies, as well as excessive Fe levels, are frequently observed irrespective of the immunosuppressive regimen applied, which suggests that monitoring of these bioelements may be favorable

Spatial analysis of lung, colorectal, and breast cancer on Cape Cod: An application of generalized additive models to case-control data

BACKGROUND: The availability of geographic information from cancer and birth defect registries has increased public demands for investigation of perceived disease clusters. Many neighborhood-level cluster investigations are methodologically problematic, while maps made from registry data often ignore latency and many known risk factors. Population-based case-control and cohort studies provide a stronger foundation for spatial epidemiology because potential confounders and disease latency can be addressed. METHODS: We investigated the association between residence and colorectal, lung, and breast cancer on upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts (USA) using extensive data on covariates and residential history from two case-control studies for 1983–1993. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. The resulting continuous surface estimates disease rates relative to the whole study area. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. RESULTS: Maps of colorectal cancer were relatively flat. Assuming 15 years of latency, lung cancer was significantly elevated just northeast of the Massachusetts Military Reservation, although the result did not hold when we restricted to residences of longest duration. Earlier non-spatial epidemiology had found a weak association between lung cancer and proximity to gun and mortar positions on the reservation. Breast cancer hot spots tended to increase in magnitude as we increased latency and adjusted for covariates, indicating that confounders were partly hiding these areas. Significant breast cancer hot spots were located near known groundwater plumes and the Massachusetts Military Reservation. DISCUSSION: Spatial epidemiology of population-based case-control studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of breast cancer on upper Cape Cod. The analysis suggests further investigation of the potential association between breast cancer and pollution plumes based on detailed exposure modeling