Light interception principally drives the understory response to boxelder invasion in riparian forests

Since several decades, American boxelder (Acer negundo) is replacing white willow (Salix alba) riparian forests along southern European rivers. This study aims to evaluate the consequences of boxelder invasion on understory community in riparian areas. We determined the understory species richness, composition and biomass in boxelder and white willow stands located in three riparian forests, representative of three rivers with distinct hydrological regimes. We investigated correlation of these variables to soil moisture and particle size, main soil nutrient stocks, potential nitrification and denitrification, tree canopy cover and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) at the ground level. A greenhouse experiment was then conducted to identify the causal factors responsible for changes in the understory. The effect of soil type, PAR level and water level on the growth and the biomass production of Urtica dioica were examined. A lower plant species richness and biomass, and a modification of community composition were observed for boxelder understory in all sites, regardless of their environmental characteristics. The strongest modification that follows boxelder invasion was the decline in U. dioica, the dominant species of the white willow forest understory. These differences were mainly correlated with a lower incident PAR under boxelder canopy. The greenhouse experiment identified PAR level as the main factor responsible for the changes in U. dioica stem number and biomass. Our results indicate that adult boxelder acts as an ecosystem engineer that decreases light availability. The opportunistic invasion by boxelder leads to important understory changes, which could alter riparian ecosystem functioning

Model selection in historical research using approximate Bayesian computation

Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to reevaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester's laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence.Funding for this work was provided by the SimulPast Consolider Ingenio project (CSD2010-00034) of the former Ministry for Science and Innovation of the Spanish Government and the European Research Council Advanced Grant EPNet (340828).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Vampires in the village Žrnovo on the island of Korčula: following an archival document from the 18th century

Središnja tema rada usmjerena je na raščlambu spisa pohranjenog u Državnom arhivu u Mlecima (fond: Capi del Consiglio de’ Dieci: Lettere di Rettori e di altre cariche) koji se odnosi na događaj iz 1748. godine u korčulanskom selu Žrnovo, kada su mještani – vjerujući da su se pojavili vampiri – oskvrnuli nekoliko mjesnih grobova. U radu se podrobno iznose osnovni podaci iz spisa te rečeni događaj analizira u širem društvenom kontekstu i prate se lokalna vjerovanja.The main interest of this essay is the analysis of the document from the State Archive in Venice (file: Capi del Consiglio de’ Dieci: Lettere di Rettori e di altre cariche) which is connected with the episode from 1748 when the inhabitants of the village Žrnove on the island of Korčula in Croatia opened tombs on the local cemetery in the fear of the vampires treating. This essay try to show some social circumstances connected with this event as well as a local vernacular tradition concerning superstitions