Modelling the effects of standard prognostic factors in node-positive breast cancer

Prognostic models that predict the clinical course of a breast cancer patient are important in oncology. We propose an approach to constructing such models based on fractional polynomials in which useful transformations of the continuous factors are determined. The idea may be applied with all types of regression model, including Cox regression, the method of choice for survival-time data. We analyse a prospective study of node-positive breast cancer. Seven standard prognostic factors – age, menopausal status, tumour size, tumour grade, number of positive lymph nodes, progesterone and oestrogen receptor concentrations – were investigated in 686 patients, of whom 299 had an event for recurrence-free survival and 171 died. We determine a final model with transformations of prognostic factors and compare it with the more traditional approaches using categorized variables or assuming a straight line relationship. We conclude that analysis using fractional polynomials can extract important prognostic information which the traditional approaches may miss. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Characteristics and outcomes of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer who declined to participate in randomised clinical chemotherapy trials

There are inadequate data on the outcomes of patients who declined to participate in randomised clinical trials as compared with those of participants. We retrospectively reviewed the patient characteristics and treatment outcomes of both participants and non-participants in the two randomised trials for chemotherapy-naive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Trial 1 compared four platinum-based combination regimens. Trial 2 compared two sequences of carboplatin plus paclitaxel and gefitinib therapies. Nineteen of 119 (16%) and 153 (37%) patients declined to participate in Trials 1 and 2, respectively. Among the background patient characteristics, the only variable associated with trial participation or declining was the patients' attending physicians (P<0.001). Important differences were not observed in the clinical outcomes between participants and non-participants, for whom the response rates were 30.6 vs 34.2% and the median survival times were 489 vs 461 days, respectively. The hazard ratio for overall survival, adjusted for other confounding variables, was 0.965 (95% confidence interval: 0.73–1.28). In conclusion, there was no evidence to suggest any difference in the characteristics and clinical outcomes between participants and non-participants. Trial designs and the doctor–patient relationship may have an impact on the patient accrual to randomised trials

A comparison of methods to adjust for continuous covariates in the analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Although covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomised trials can be beneficial, adjustment for continuous covariates is complicated by the fact that the association between covariate and outcome must be specified. Misspecification of this association can lead to reduced power, and potentially incorrect conclusions regarding treatment efficacy. METHODS: We compared several methods of adjustment to determine which is best when the association between covariate and outcome is unknown. We assessed (a) dichotomisation or categorisation; (b) assuming a linear association with outcome; (c) using fractional polynomials with one (FP1) or two (FP2) polynomial terms; and (d) using restricted cubic splines with 3 or 5 knots. We evaluated each method using simulation and through a re-analysis of trial datasets. RESULTS: Methods which kept covariates as continuous typically had higher power than methods which used categorisation. Dichotomisation, categorisation, and assuming a linear association all led to large reductions in power when the true association was non-linear. FP2 models and restricted cubic splines with 3 or 5 knots performed best overall. CONCLUSIONS: For the analysis of randomised trials we recommend (1) adjusting for continuous covariates even if their association with outcome is unknown; (2) keeping covariates as continuous; and (3) using fractional polynomials with two polynomial terms or restricted cubic splines with 3 to 5 knots when a linear association is in doubt

Analysis of incidence and prognostic factors for ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence and its impact on disease-specific survival of women with node-negative breast cancer: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: This study had three aims: to establish the incidence of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) in a community treatment setting, to evaluate known factors – in particular younger age (< 40 years) – predictive for local recurrence, and to assess the impact of local recurrence on disease-specific survival (DSS). METHODS: A consecutive series of 1,540 women with node-negative breast cancer, diagnosed between the ages of 18–75 years, were prospectively accrued between September 1987 and September 1999. All had undergone a resection of the primary breast cancer with clear margins, an axillary lymph node dissection with a minimum of four sampled nodes, and breast-conserving surgery (of any type). RESULTS: During the study follow-up period, 98 (6.4%) IBTRs and 117 (7.6%) deaths from or with breast cancer were observed. The median time to IBTR was 3.1 years and to death from or with disease was 4.3 years. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression model for IBTR with adjuvant therapy factors, independent risk factors included age < 40 years (relative risk (RR) = 1.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.00 – 3.58), presence of intraductal disease (RR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.15–2.85) and histological grade ('G2' or G3 versus G1: RR = 1.59, 95% CI = 0.87–2.94). In the multivariate Cox PH regression model for DSS with adjuvant therapy factors, independent risk factors included previous IBTR (RR = 2.58, 95% CI = 1.41–4.72), tumor size (1–2 cm versus < 1 cm: RR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.05–3.64, > 2 cm versus < 1 cm: RR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.56–5.56), progesterone receptor status (negative or equivocal versus positive or unknown: RR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.36–3.39), lymphatic invasion (RR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.17–2.72), and histological grade ('G2' or G3 versus G1: RR = 8.59, 95% CI = 2.09–35.36). The effects of competing risks could be ignored. CONCLUSION: The Cox PH analyses confirmed the importance of known risk factors for IBTR and DSS in a community treatment setting. This study also revealed that the early occurrence of an IBTR is associated with a relatively poor five-year survival rate

Duration of adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer: a joint analysis of two randomised trials investigating three versus six courses of CMF

Cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil adjuvant combination chemotherapy for breast cancer is currently used for the duration of six monthly courses. We performed a joint analysis of two studies on the duration of adjuvant cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil in patients with node-positive breast cancer to investigate whether three courses of cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil might suffice. The International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI randomly assigned 735 pre- and perimenopausal patients to receive ‘classical’ cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil for three consecutive cycles, or the same chemotherapy for six consecutive cycles. The German Breast Cancer Study Group randomised 289 patients to receive either three or six cycles of i.v. cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil day 1, 8. Treatment effects were estimated using Cox regression analysis stratified by clinical trial without further adjustment for covariates. The 5-year disease-free survival per cents (±s.e.) were 54±2% for three cycles and 55±2% for six cycles (n=1024; risk ratio (risk ratio: CMF×3/CMF×6), 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 1.18; P=0.99). Use of three rather than six cycles was demonstrated to be adequate in both studies for patients at least 40-years-old with oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours (n=594; risk ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 1.08; P=0.19). In fact, results slightly favoured three cycles over six for this subgroup, and the 95% confidence interval excluded an adverse effect of more than 2% with respect to absolute 5-year survival. In contrast, three cycles appeared to be possibly inferior to six cycles for women less than 40-years-old (n=190; risk ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 1.80; P=0.22) and for women with oestrogen-receptor-negative tumours (n=302; risk ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 1.57; P=0.37). Thus, three initial cycles of adjuvant cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil chemotherapy were as effective as six cycles for older patients (40-years-old) with oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours, while six cycles of adjuvant cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil might still be required for other cohorts. Because endocrine therapy with tamoxifen and GnRH analogues is now available for younger women with oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours, the need for six cycles of cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil is unclear and requires further investigation

Does Random Treatment Assignment Cause Harm to Research Participants?

BACKGROUND: Some argue that by precluding individualized treatment, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) provide substandard medical care, while others claim that participation in clinical research is associated with improved patient outcomes. However, there are few data to assess the impact of random treatment assignment on RCT participants. We therefore performed a systematic review to quantify the differences in health outcomes between randomized trial participants and eligible non-participants. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Studies were identified by searching Medline, the Web of Science citation database, and manuscript references. Studies were eligible if they documented baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of RCT participants and eligible non-participants, and allowed non-participants access to the same interventions available to trial participants. Primary study outcomes according to patient group (randomized trial participants versus eligible non-participants) were extracted from all eligible manuscripts. For 22 of the 25 studies (88%) meeting eligibility criteria, there were no significant differences in clinical outcomes between patients who received random assignment of treatment (RCT participants) and those who received individualized treatment assignment (eligible non-participants). In addition, there was no relation between random treatment assignment and clinical outcome in 15 of the 17 studies (88%) in which randomized and nonrandomized patients had similar health status at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that randomized treatment assignment as part of a clinical trial does not harm research participants

Oblique decision trees for spatial pattern detection: optimal algorithm and application to malaria risk

BACKGROUND: In order to detect potential disease clusters where a putative source cannot be specified, classical procedures scan the geographical area with circular windows through a specified grid imposed to the map. However, the choice of the windows' shapes, sizes and centers is critical and different choices may not provide exactly the same results. The aim of our work was to use an Oblique Decision Tree model (ODT) which provides potential clusters without pre-specifying shapes, sizes or centers. For this purpose, we have developed an ODT-algorithm to find an oblique partition of the space defined by the geographic coordinates. METHODS: ODT is based on the classification and regression tree (CART). As CART finds out rectangular partitions of the covariate space, ODT provides oblique partitions maximizing the interclass variance of the independent variable. Since it is a NP-Hard problem in R(N), classical ODT-algorithms use evolutionary procedures or heuristics. We have developed an optimal ODT-algorithm in R(2), based on the directions defined by each couple of point locations. This partition provided potential clusters which can be tested with Monte-Carlo inference. We applied the ODT-model to a dataset in order to identify potential high risk clusters of malaria in a village in Western Africa during the dry season. The ODT results were compared with those of the Kulldorff' s SaTScan™. RESULTS: The ODT procedure provided four classes of risk of infection. In the first high risk class 60%, 95% confidence interval (CI95%) [52.22–67.55], of the children was infected. Monte-Carlo inference showed that the spatial pattern issued from the ODT-model was significant (p < 0.0001). Satscan results yielded one significant cluster where the risk of disease was high with an infectious rate of 54.21%, CI95% [47.51–60.75]. Obviously, his center was located within the first high risk ODT class. Both procedures provided similar results identifying a high risk cluster in the western part of the village where a mosquito breeding point was located. CONCLUSION: ODT-models improve the classical scanning procedures by detecting potential disease clusters independently of any specification of the shapes, sizes or centers of the clusters

Ratios of involved nodes in early breast cancer

INTRODUCTION: The number of lymph nodes found to be involved in an axillary dissection is among the most powerful prognostic factors in breast cancer, but it is confounded by the number of lymph nodes that have been examined. We investigate an idea that has surfaced recently in the literature (since 1999), namely that the proportion of node-positive lymph nodes (or a function thereof) is a much better predictor of survival than the number of excised and node-positive lymph nodes, alone or together. METHODS: The data were abstracted from 83,686 cases registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of women diagnosed with nonmetastatic T1–T2 primary breast carcinoma between 1988 and 1997, in whom axillary node dissection was performed. The end-point was death from breast cancer. Cox models based on different expressions of nodal involvement were compared using the Nagelkerke R(2 )index (R(2)(N)). Ratios were modeled as percentage and as log odds of involved nodes. Log odds were estimated in a way that avoids singularities (zero values) by using the empirical logistic transform. RESULTS: In node-negative cases both the number of nodes excised and the log odds were significant, with hazard ratios of 0.991 (95% confidence interval 0.986–0.997) and 1.150 (1.058–1.249), respectively, but without improving R(2)(N). In node-positive cases the hazard ratios were 1.003–1.088 for the number of involved nodes, 0.966–1.005 for the number of excised nodes, 1.015–1.017 for the percentage, and 1.344–1.381 for the log odds. R(2)(N )improved from 0.067 (no nodal covariate) to 0.102 (models based on counts only) and to 0.108 (models based on ratios). DISCUSSION: Ratios are simple optimal predictors, in that they provide at least the same prognostic value as the more traditional staging based on counting of involved nodes, without replacing them with a needlessly complicated alternative. They can be viewed as a per patient standardization in which the number of involved nodes is standardized to the number of nodes excised. In an extension to the study, ratios were validated in a comparison with categorized staging measures using blinded data from the San Jose–Monterey cancer registry. A ratio based prognostic index was also derived. It improved the Nottingham Prognostic Index without compromising on simplicity

A prospective, randomised, controlled, double-blind phase I-II clinical trial on the safety of A-Part® Gel as adhesion prophylaxis after major abdominal surgery versus non-treated group

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Postoperative adhesions occur when fibrous strands of internal scar tissue bind anatomical structures to one another. The most common cause of intra-abdominal adhesions is previous intra-abdominal surgical intervention. Up to 74% of intestinal obstructions are caused by post surgical adhesions. Although a variety of methods and agents have been investigated to prevent post surgical adhesions, the problem of peritoneal adhesions remains largely unsolved. Materials serving as an adhesion barrier are much needed.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This is a prospective, randomised, controlled, patient blinded and observer blinded, single centre phase I-II trial, which evaluates the safety of A-Part^®Gel as an adhesion prophylaxis after major abdominal wall surgery, in comparison to an untreated control group. 60 patients undergoing an elective median laparotomy without prior abdominal surgery are randomly allocated into two groups of a 1:1- ratio. Safety parameter and primary endpoint of the study is the occurrence of wound healing impairment or peritonitis within 28 (+10) days after surgery. The frequency of anastomotic leakage within 28 days after operation, occurrence of adverse and serious adverse events during hospital stay up to 3 months and the rate of adhesions along the scar within 3 months are defined as secondary endpoints. After hospital discharge the investigator will examine the enrolled patients at 28 (+10) days and 3 months (±14 days) after surgery.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This trial aims to assess, whether the intra-peritoneal application of A-Part^®Gel is safe and efficacious in the prevention of post-surgical adhesions after median laparotomy, in comparison to untreated controls.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00646412</p