Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold w_c separating a phase (w<w_c) where the disease reaches a large fraction of the population, from a phase (w >= w_c) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that w_c increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that w_c is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Coevolution of Glauber-like Ising dynamics on typical networks

We consider coevolution of site status and link structures from two different initial networks: a one dimensional Ising chain and a scale free network. The dynamics is governed by a preassigned stability parameter $S$, and a rewiring factor $\phi$, that determines whether the Ising spin at the chosen site flips or whether the node gets rewired to another node in the system. This dynamics has also been studied with Ising spins distributed randomly among nodes which lie on a network with preferential attachment. We have observed the steady state average stability and magnetisation for both kinds of systems to have an idea about the effect of initial network topology. Although the average stability shows almost similar behaviour, the magnetisation depends on the initial condition we start from. Apart from the local dynamics, the global effect on the dynamics has also been studied. These parameters show interesting variations for different values of $S$ and $\phi$, which helps in determining the steady-state condition for a given substrate.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figure

Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks

Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction $q$ of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted $T$. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction $q > 0$ of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of $q \to 0$ the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

We study the statistical properties of the SIR epidemics in heterogeneous networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size s_c. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster $P_{\infty}$ is an upper bound to . For small values of s_c, $P_{\infty}$ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. The value of s_c for which $P_{\infty}$ is a good approximation is found to depend on the transmissibility T of the SIR. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass s_c, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice s_c on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figure

A cost-effective algae-based biosensor for water quality analysis: Development and testing in collaboration with peasant communities

New anthropic potentially harmful compounds are released into the environment everyday. In this context, broad range bioassays have emerged providing economically viable and widely applicable alternatives due to their ability to detect the cumulative toxicity of mixtures of both known and unknown chemicals in a sample, thus allowing direct information about water quality. Here we present a low-cost, wide-range algae-based biosensor that is easy to assemble and operate by untrained users and provides direct readings. It was developed as a request of a peasant social movement organization to assess the toxicity of drinking water in rural communities affected by pesticide spraying. Two fresh water algae strains, Scenedesmus acutus and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, were immobilized in alginate beads and tested as bioindicators. After incubation with different pollutants for five days, naked eye analysis by several observers proved to be a successful method to survey algae’s growth and establish the detection limits. Best detection limits were 10 ppm for technical-grade acid glyphosate, 15 ppm for glyphosate-based formulation, 50 ppb for atrazine formulation, 7.5 ppm for copper and 250 ppb for chromium. Absorbance measurements upon algae resuspension validated these results. The developed device was successfully tested in participatory workshops conducted at rural communities. Children, adults and elders with no scientific training were able to build the sensor and interpret the results, thus evaluating the quality of rain and well water used in their communities.Universidad Nacional de Santiago del EsteroConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnica

Health effects of ambient air pollution – recent research development and contemporary methodological challenges

Exposure to high levels of air pollution can cause a variety of adverse health outcomes. Air quality in developed countries has been generally improved over the last three decades. However, many recent epidemiological studies have consistently shown positive associations between low-level exposure to air pollution and health outcomes. Thus, adverse health effects of air pollution, even at relatively low levels, remain a public concern. This paper aims to provide an overview of recent research development and contemporary methodological challenges in this field and to identify future research directions for air pollution epidemiological studies

Feasibility of a cohort study on health risks caused by occupational exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields

Breckenkamp J, Berg-Beckhoff G, Muenster E, et al. Feasibility of a cohort study on health risks caused by occupational exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields. Environmental Health. 2009;8(1):23.Background: The aim of this study was to examine the feasibility of performing a cohort study on health risks from occupational exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in Germany. Methods: A set of criteria was developed to evaluate the feasibility of such a cohort study. The criteria aimed at conditions of exposure and exposure assessment (level, duration, preferably on an individual basis), the possibility to assemble a cohort and the feasibility of ascertaining various disease endpoints. Results: Twenty occupational settings with workers potentially exposed to RF-EMF and, in addition, a cohort of amateur radio operators were considered. Based on expert ratings, literature reviews and our set of predefined criteria, three of the cohorts were identified as promising for further evaluation: the personnel (technicians) of medium/short wave broadcasting stations, amateur radio operators, and workers on dielectric heat sealers. After further analyses, the cohort of workers on dielectric heat sealers seems not to be feasible due to the small number of exposed workers available and to the difficulty of assessing exposure (exposure depends heavily on the respective working process and mixture of exposures, e.g. plastic vapours), although exposure was highest in this occupational setting. The advantage of the cohort of amateur radio operators was the large number of persons it includes, while the advantage of the cohort of personnel working at broadcasting stations was the quality of retrospective exposure assessment. However, in the cohort of amateur radio operators the exposure assessment was limited, and the cohort of technicians was hampered by the small number of persons working in this profession. Conclusion: The majority of occupational groups exposed to RF-EMF are not practicable for setting up an occupational cohort study due to the small numbers of exposed subjects or due to exposure levels being only marginally higher than those of the general public

Atlas of lesion locations and postsurgical seizure freedom in focal cortical dysplasia: A MELD study

Objective: Drug-resistant focal epilepsy is often caused by focal cortical dysplasias (FCDs). The distribution of these lesions across the cerebral cortex and the impact of lesion location on clinical presentation and surgical outcome are largely unknown. We created a neuroimaging cohort of patients with individually mapped FCDs to determine factors associated with lesion location and predictors of postsurgical outcome. Methods: The MELD (Multi-centre Epilepsy Lesion Detection) project collated a retrospective cohort of 580 patients with epilepsy attributed to FCD from 20 epilepsy centers worldwide. Magnetic resonance imaging-based maps of individual FCDs with accompanying demographic, clinical, and surgical information were collected. We mapped the distribution of FCDs, examined for associations between clinical factors and lesion location, and developed a predictive model of postsurgical seizure freedom. Results: FCDs were nonuniformly distributed, concentrating in the superior frontal sulcus, frontal pole, and temporal pole. Epilepsy onset was typically before the age of 10 years. Earlier epilepsy onset was associated with lesions in primary sensory areas, whereas later epilepsy onset was associated with lesions in association cortices. Lesions in temporal and occipital lobes tended to be larger than frontal lobe lesions. Seizure freedom rates varied with FCD location, from around 30% in visual, motor, and premotor areas to 75% in superior temporal and frontal gyri. The predictive model of postsurgical seizure freedom had a positive predictive value of 70% and negative predictive value of 61%. Significance: FCD location is an important determinant of its size, the age at epilepsy onset, and the likelihood of seizure freedom postsurgery. Our atlas of lesion locations can be used to guide the radiological search for subtle lesions in individual patients. Our atlas of regional seizure freedom rates and associated predictive model can be used to estimate individual likelihoods of postsurgical seizure freedom. Data-driven atlases and predictive models are essential for evidence-based, precision medicine and risk counseling in epilepsy