The Use of Top-Down Approach in Teaching Listening Through Short Stories

Listening comprehension is the first skill that students should master, because before someone understands and starts to speak, lie or she has to hear sounds, words, or speech pattern. Listening is considered as a difficult language skill since it involves some aspects of the language, for example, vocabulary, understanding the sound, grammar, getting, the mainL_ understandingidea, specific information and reference. The teaching of listening in formal schools is still considered unsuccessful for that it tends to make students boring. Therefore, English teachers should provide more challenging and interesting listening activities. Teaching listening withZ7short stories is said to be one of the way to reduce students boredom and to increase students listening comprehension.For the above reasons, this research was intended to find out whether there was significant improvement of students listening comprehension in short stories after being taught through top - down approach. This research was done in a group pretest posttest design. The population of this research was the eleventh grade in SMA YP UN ILA Bandar Lampung. The sample of this research was XI IPA I and was selected by using random sampling technique. In collecting the data, the researcher administered the pretest, the treatments and posttest. The data was analyzed by using repeated measure t-test. In which the significance was determined by p<0.05. The result of t-test computation showed that (-ratio was higher than t-table (t,>t,.J, that is, (29.330>2.021), it can be concluded that there was a significant improvement of students listening comprehension after being taught short stories through top - down approach. This means that teaching listening through short stories in a top-down approach was applicable to improve sttideiitslistening omprehension ability

The Use Of Top-Down Approach In Teaching Listening Through Short Stories

Listening comprehension is the first skill that students should master, because before someone understands and starts to speak, lie or she has to hear sounds, words, or speech pattern. Listening is considered as a difficult language skill since it involves some aspects of the language, for example, vocabulary, understanding the sound, grammar, getting, the mainL_ understandingidea, specific information and reference. The teaching of listening in formal schools is still considered unsuccessful for that it tends to make students boring. Therefore, English teachers should provide more challenging and interesting listening activities. Teaching listening withZ7short stories is said to be one of the way to reduce students boredom and to increase students listening comprehension.For the above reasons, this research was intended to find out whether there was significant improvement of students listening comprehension in short stories after being taught through top - down approach. This research was done in a group pretest posttest design. The population of this research was the eleventh grade in SMA YP UN ILA Bandar Lampung. The sample of this research was XI IPA I and was selected by using random sampling technique. In collecting the data, the researcher administered the pretest, the treatments and posttest. The data was analyzed by using repeated measure t-test. In which the significance was determined by p<0.05. The result of t-test computation showed that (-ratio was higher than t-table (t,>t,.J, that is, (29.330>2.021), it can be concluded that there was a significant improvement of students listening comprehension after being taught short stories through top - down approach. This means that teaching listening through short stories in a top-down approach was applicable to improve sttideiitslistening omprehension ability

Random Planar Lattices and Integrated SuperBrownian Excursion

In this paper, a surprising connection is described between a specific brand of random lattices, namely planar quadrangulations, and Aldous' Integrated SuperBrownian Excursion (ISE). As a consequence, the radius r_n of a random quadrangulation with n faces is shown to converge, up to scaling, to the width r=R-L of the support of the one-dimensional ISE. More generally the distribution of distances to a random vertex in a random quadrangulation is described in its scaled limit by the random measure ISE shifted to set the minimum of its support in zero. The first combinatorial ingredient is an encoding of quadrangulations by trees embedded in the positive half-line, reminiscent of Cori and Vauquelin's well labelled trees. The second step relates these trees to embedded (discrete) trees in the sense of Aldous, via the conjugation of tree principle, an analogue for trees of Vervaat's construction of the Brownian excursion from the bridge. From probability theory, we need a new result of independent interest: the weak convergence of the encoding of a random embedded plane tree by two contour walks to the Brownian snake description of ISE. Our results suggest the existence of a Continuum Random Map describing in term of ISE the scaled limit of the dynamical triangulations considered in two-dimensional pure quantum gravity.Comment: 44 pages, 22 figures. Slides and extended abstract version are available at http://www.loria.fr/~schaeffe/Pub/Diameter/ and http://www.iecn.u-nancy.fr/~chassain

Effects of bark beetle outbreaks on forest landscape pattern in the southern rocky mountains, U.S.A.

Since the late 1990s, extensive outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) have affected coniferous forests throughout Europe and North America, driving changes in carbon storage, wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, and water resource provisioning. Remote sensing is a cru-cial tool for quantifying the effects of these disturbances across broad landscapes. In particular, Landsat time series (LTS) are increasingly used to characterize outbreak dynamics, including the presence and severity of bark beetle-caused tree mortality, though broad-scale LTS-based maps are rarely informed by detailed field validation. Here we used spatial and temporal information from LTS products, in combination with extensive field data and Random Forest (RF) models, to develop 30-m maps of the presence (i.e., any occurrence) and severity (i.e., cumulative percent basal area mortality) of beetle-caused tree mortality 1997–2019 in subalpine forests throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Using resultant maps, we also quantified spatial patterns of cumulative tree mortality throughout the region, an important yet poorly understood concept in beetle-affected forests. RF models using LTS products to predict presence and severity performed well, with 80.3% correctly classified (Kappa = 0.61) and R2 = 0.68 (RMSE = 17.3), respectively. We found that ≥10,256 km2 of subalpine forest area (39.5% of the study area) was affected by bark beetles and 19.3% of the study area experienced ≥70% tree mortality over the twenty-three year period. Variograms indi-cated that severity was autocorrelated at scales \u3c 250 km. Interestingly, cumulative patch-size dis-tributions showed that areas with a near-total loss of the overstory canopy (i.e., ≥90% mortality) were relatively small (\u3c0.24 km2) and isolated throughout the study area. Our findings help to in-form an understanding of the variable effects of bark beetle outbreaks across complex forested regions and provide insight into patterns of disturbance legacies, landscape connectivity, and susceptibility to future disturbance

Severe Aortic Stenosis and Myocardial Function: Diagnostic and Prognostic Usefulness of Ultrasonic Integrated Backscatter Analysis

Background— The aim of this study was to assess the myocardial reflectivity pattern in severe aortic valve stenosis through the use of integrated backscatter (IBS) analysis. Patients with aortic stenosis (AS) were carefully selected in the Department of Cardiology. Methods and Results— Thirty-five subjects (AS: valve orifice ≤1 cm2; 12 female; mean age, 71.8±6.2 years) and 25 healthy subjects were studied. All subjects of the study had conventional 2D-Doppler echocardiography and IBS. Backscatter signal was sampled at the septum and posterior wall levels. Patients with AS were divided into 2 groups: 16 patients with initial signs of congestive heart failure and a depressed left ventricular systolic function (DSF) (ejection fraction [EF] range, 35% to 50%) and 19 asymptomatic patients with normal left ventricular systolic function (NSF) (EF >50%). Myocardial echo intensity (pericardium related) was significantly higher at the septum and posterior wall levels in DSF than in NSF and in control subjects. IBS variation, as an expression of variation of the signal, appeared to be significantly lower in AS with DSF than in NSF and in control subjects, at both the septum and posterior wall levels. Patients with DSF underwent aortic valve replacement, and, during surgical intervention, a septal myocardial biopsy was made for evaluation of myocardium/fibrosis ratio. Abnormally increased echo intensity was detected in left ventricular pressure overload by severe aortic stenosis and correlated with increase of myocardial collagen content (operating biopsy). Conclusions— One year after aortic valve replacement, we observed a significant reduction of left ventricular mass, and, only if pericardial indexed IBS value (reduction of interstitial fibrosis) decreased, it was possible to observe an improvement of EF and of IBS variation

Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals

BACKGROUND: The serial interval is a key epidemiological measure that quantifies the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector-infectee pair. It indicates how quickly new generations of cases appear, thus informing on the speed of an epidemic. Estimating the serial interval requires to identify pairs of infectors and infectees. Yet, most studies fail to assess the direction of transmission between cases and assume that the order of infections - and thus transmissions - strictly follows the order of symptom onsets, thereby imposing serial intervals to be positive. Because of the long and highly variable incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, this may not always be true (i.e an infectee may show symptoms before their infector) and negative serial intervals may occur. This study aims to estimate the serial interval of different SARS-CoV-2 variants whilst accounting for negative serial intervals. METHODS: This analysis included 5 842 symptomatic individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst 2 579 households from September 2020 to August 2022 across England & Wales. We used a Bayesian framework to infer who infected whom by exploring all transmission trees compatible with the observed dates of symptoms, based on a wide range of incubation period and generation time distributions compatible with estimates reported in the literature. Serial intervals were derived from the reconstructed transmission pairs, stratified by variants. RESULTS: We estimated that 22% (95% credible interval (CrI) 8-32%) of serial interval values are negative across all VOC. The mean serial interval was shortest for Omicron BA5 (2.02 days, 1.26-2.84) and longest for Alpha (3.37 days, 2.52-4.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the large proportion of negative serial intervals across SARS-CoV-2 variants. Because the serial interval is widely used to estimate transmissibility and forecast cases, these results may have critical implications for epidemic control

A guided tour of asynchronous cellular automata

Research on asynchronous cellular automata has received a great amount of attention these last years and has turned to a thriving field. We survey the recent research that has been carried out on this topic and present a wide state of the art where computing and modelling issues are both represented.Comment: To appear in the Journal of Cellular Automat

Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Background Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the eff ects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15–49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. Findings All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models’ central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5–20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (diff erence 1·9, 95% CI –0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI –0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15–24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54–2·12 million. However, the diff erential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73–2·71). Interpretation Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections

Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals

BACKGROUND: The serial interval is a key epidemiological measure that quantifies the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector-infectee pair. It indicates how quickly new generations of cases appear, thus informing on the speed of an epidemic. Estimating the serial interval requires to identify pairs of infectors and infectees. Yet, most studies fail to assess the direction of transmission between cases and assume that the order of infections - and thus transmissions - strictly follows the order of symptom onsets, thereby imposing serial intervals to be positive. Because of the long and highly variable incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, this may not always be true (i.e an infectee may show symptoms before their infector) and negative serial intervals may occur. This study aims to estimate the serial interval of different SARS-CoV-2 variants whilst accounting for negative serial intervals. METHODS: This analysis included 5 842 symptomatic individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst 2 579 households from September 2020 to August 2022 across England & Wales. We used a Bayesian framework to infer who infected whom by exploring all transmission trees compatible with the observed dates of symptoms, based on a wide range of incubation period and generation time distributions compatible with estimates reported in the literature. Serial intervals were derived from the reconstructed transmission pairs, stratified by variants. RESULTS: We estimated that 22% (95% credible interval (CrI) 8-32%) of serial interval values are negative across all VOC. The mean serial interval was shortest for Omicron BA5 (2.02 days, 1.26-2.84) and longest for Alpha (3.37 days, 2.52-4.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the large proportion of negative serial intervals across SARS-CoV-2 variants. Because the serial interval is widely used to estimate transmissibility and forecast cases, these results may have critical implications for epidemic control