On the predictability of ice avalanches

The velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the non-linearity of the power-law function makes the prediction difficult. The effects of the non-linearity on the predictability of a failure are analyzed using a non-linear regression method. Predictability strongly depends on the time window when the measurements are performed. Log-periodic oscillations have been observed to be superimposed on the motion of large unstable ice masses. The value of their amplitude, frequency and phase are observed to be spatially homogeneous over the whole unstable ice mass. Inclusion of a respective term in the function describing the acceleration of unstable ice masses greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction

The Hubble Constant determined through an inverse distance ladder including quasar time delays and Type Ia supernovae

Context. The precise determination of the present-day expansion rate of the Universe, expressed through the Hubble constant $H_0$, is one of the most pressing challenges in modern cosmology. Assuming flat $\Lambda$CDM, $H_0$ inference at high redshift using cosmic-microwave-background data from Planck disagrees at the 4.4$\sigma$ level with measurements based on the local distance ladder made up of parallaxes, Cepheids and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), often referred to as "Hubble tension". Independent, cosmological-model-insensitive ways to infer $H_0$ are of critical importance. Aims. We apply an inverse-distance-ladder approach, combining strong-lensing time-delay-distance measurements with SN Ia data. By themselves, SNe Ia are merely good relative distance indicators, but by anchoring them to strong gravitational lenses one can obtain an $H_0$ measurement that is relatively insensitive to other cosmological parameters. Methods. A cosmological parameter estimate is performed for different cosmological background models, both for strong-lensing data alone and for the combined lensing + SNe Ia data sets. Results. The cosmological-model dependence of strong-lensing $H_0$ measurements is significantly mitigated through the inverse distance ladder. In combination with SN Ia data, the inferred $H_0$ consistently lies around 73-74 km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, regardless of the assumed cosmological background model. Our results agree nicely with those from the local distance ladder, but there is a >2$\sigma$ tension with Planck results, and a ~1.5$\sigma$ discrepancy with results from an inverse distance ladder including Planck, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and SNe Ia. Future strong-lensing distance measurements will reduce the uncertainties in $H_0$ from our inverse distance ladder.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, A&A letters accepted versio

Testing the Evolution of the Correlations between Supermassive Black Holes and their Host Galaxies using Eight Strongly Lensed Quasars

One of the main challenges in using high redshift active galactic nuclei to study the correlations between the mass of the supermassive Black Hole (MBH) and the properties of their active host galaxies is instrumental resolution. Strong lensing magnification effectively increases instrumental resolution and thus helps to address this challenge. In this work, we study eight strongly lensed active galactic nuclei (AGN) with deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging, using the lens modelling code Lenstronomy to reconstruct the image of the source. Using the reconstructed brightness of the host galaxy, we infer the host galaxy stellar mass based on stellar population models. MBH are estimated from broad emission lines using standard methods. Our results are in good agreement with recent work based on non-lensed AGN, demonstrating the potential of using strongly lensed AGNs to extend the study of the correlations to higher redshifts. At the moment, the sample size of lensed AGN is small and thus they provide mostly a consistency check on systematic errors related to resolution for the non-lensed AGN. However, the number of known lensed AGN is expected to increase dramatically in the next few years, through dedicated searches in ground and space based wide field surveys, and they may become a key diagnostic of black hole and galaxy co-evolution.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. MNRAS in press. Comments welcom

Identification of a Potential Ovarian Cancer Stem Cell Gene Expression Profile from Advanced Stage Papillary Serous Ovarian Cancer

Identification of gene expression profiles of cancer stem cells may have significant implications in the understanding of tumor biology and for the design of novel treatments targeted toward these cells. Here we report a potential ovarian cancer stem cell gene expression profile from isolated side population of fresh ascites obtained from women with high-grade advanced stage papillary serous ovarian adenocarcinoma. Affymetrix U133 Plus 2.0 microarrays were used to interrogate the differentially expressed genes between side population (SP) and main population (MP), and the results were analyzed by paired T-test using BRB-ArrayTools. We identified 138 up-regulated and 302 down-regulated genes that were differentially expressed between all 10 SP/MP pairs. Microarray data was validated using qRT-PCR and17/19 (89.5%) genes showed robust correlations between microarray and qRT-PCR expression data. The Pathway Studio analysis identified several genes involved in cell survival, differentiation, proliferation, and apoptosis which are unique to SP cells and a mechanism for the activation of Notch signaling is identified. To validate these findings, we have identified and isolated SP cells enriched for cancer stem cells from human ovarian cancer cell lines. The SP populations were having a higher colony forming efficiency in comparison to its MP counterpart and also capable of sustained expansion and differentiation in to SP and MP phenotypes. 50,000 SP cells produced tumor in nude mice whereas the same number of MP cells failed to give any tumor at 8 weeks after injection. The SP cells demonstrated a dose dependent sensitivity to specific γ-secretase inhibitors implicating the role of Notch signaling pathway in SP cell survival. Further the generated SP gene list was found to be enriched in recurrent ovarian cancer tumors

H0LiCOW XII. Lens mass model of WFI2033-4723 and blind measurement of its time-delay distance and H0H_0

We present the lens mass model of the quadruply-imaged gravitationally lensed quasar WFI2033-4723, and perform a blind cosmographical analysis based on this system. Our analysis combines (1) time-delay measurements from 14 years of data obtained by the COSmological MOnitoring of GRAvItational Lenses (COSMOGRAIL) collaboration, (2) high-resolution $\textit{Hubble Space Telescope}$ imaging, (3) a measurement of the velocity dispersion of the lens galaxy based on ESO-MUSE data, and (4) multi-band, wide-field imaging and spectroscopy characterizing the lens environment. We account for all known sources of systematics, including the influence of nearby perturbers and complex line-of-sight structure, as well as the parametrization of the light and mass profiles of the lensing galaxy. After unblinding, we determine the effective time-delay distance to be $4784_{-248}^{+399}~\mathrm{Mpc}$, an average precision of $6.6\%$. This translates to a Hubble constant $H_{0} = 71.6_{-4.9}^{+3.8}~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, assuming a flat $\Lambda$CDM cosmology with a uniform prior on $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$ in the range [0.05, 0.5]. This work is part of the $H_0$ Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration, and the full time-delay cosmography results from a total of six strongly lensed systems are presented in a companion paper (H0LiCOW XIII).Comment: Version accepted by MNRAS. 29 pages including appendix, 17 figures, 6 tables. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1607.0140

Assessing the efficacy and impact of a personalised smoking cessation intervention among type 2 diabetic smokers: study protocol for an open-label randomised controlled trial (DISCGO-RCT).

Few studies have assessed the efficacy of smoking cessation interventions in individuals with type 2 diabetes, but interventions adapted to the specific needs of this population are warranted. The aim of this study is to assess the efficacy of a smoking cessation intervention in a population of smokers with type 2 diabetes and to measure the metabolic impact of smoking cessation. The study is an open-label, randomised control trial. Participants recruited from a sanitary region of Switzerland will be randomly allocated to either the intervention or the control arm. The intervention group will have four individual counselling sessions over 12 weeks. Trained research nurses will conduct the behavioural intervention, using motivational interviews and addressing diabetes and gender specificities. The control group will have one short counselling session at baseline and will be given written information on smoking cessation. Both groups will have a follow-up visit at 26 and 52 weeks. Demographic and medical data will be collected at baseline and follow-up, along with blood and urine samples. The primary study outcome is continuous smoking abstinence validated by expired-air carbon monoxide from week 12 to week 52. Secondary study outcomes are continuous and 7-day point prevalence smoking abstinence at 12 and 26 weeks; change in motivation to quit and cigarette consumption; and change in glycosylated haemoglobin levels, body weight, waist circumference and renal function after smoking cessation. In a subsample of 80 participants, change in stool microbiota from baseline will be measured at 3, 8 and 26 weeks after smoking cessation. Ethical approval has been obtained by the competent ethics committee (Commission cantonale d'éthique de la recherche sur l'être humain, CER-VD 2017-00812). The results of the study will be disseminated through publications in peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03426423 and SNCTP000002762; Pre-results

Salinity change impairs pipefish immune defence

a b s t r a c t Global change is associated with fast and severe alterations of environmental conditions. Superimposed onto existing salinity variations in a semi-enclosed brackish water body such as the Baltic Sea, a decrease in salinity is predicted due to increased precipitation and freshwater inflow. Moreover, we predict that heavy precipitation events will accentuate salinity fluctuations near shore. Here, we investigated how the immune function of the broad-nosed pipefish (Syngnathus typhle), an ecologically important teleost with sex-role reversal, is influenced by experimentally altered salinities (control: 18 PSU, lowered: 6 PSU, increased: 30 PSU) upon infection with bacteria of the genus Vibrio. Salinity changes resulted in increased activity and proliferation of immune cells. However, upon Vibrio infection, individuals at low salinity were unable to mount specific immune response components, both in terms of monocyte and lymphocyte cell proliferation and immune gene expression compared to pipefish kept at ambient salinities. We interpret this as resource allocation trade-off, implying that resources needed for osmoregulation under salinity stress are lacking for subsequent activation of the immune defence upon infection. Our data suggest that composition of small coastal fish communities may change due to elevated environmental stress levels and the incorporated consequences thereof

Etiology and Pathogenesis of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Ovarian cancer is complex disease composed of different histological grades and types. However, the underlying molecular mechanisms involved in the development of different phenotypes remain largely unknown. Epidemiological studies identified multiple exogenous and endogenous risk factors for ovarian cancer development. Among them, an inflammatory stromal microenvironment seems to play a critical role in the initiation of the disease. The interaction between such a microenvironment, genetic polymorphisms, and different epithelial components such as endosalpingiosis, endometriosis, and ovarian inclusion cyst in the ovarian cortex may induce different genetic changes identified in the epithelial component of different histological types of ovarian tumors. Genetic studies on different histological grades and types provide insight into the pathogenetic pathways for the development of different disease phenotypes. However, the link between all these genetic changes and the etiological factors remains to be established