Power Laws, Precursors and Predictability During Failure

We investigate the dynamics of a modified Burridge-Knopoff model by introducing a dissipative term to mimic the bursts of acoustic emission (AE) from rock samples. The model explains many features of the statistics of AE signals observed in experiments such as the crossover in the exponent value from relatively small amplitude AE signals to larger regime, and their dependence on the pulling speed. Significantly, we find that the cumulative energy dissipated identified with acoustic emission can be used to predict a major slip event. We also find a data collapse of the acoustic activity for several major slip events describable by a universal stretched exponential with corrections in terms of time-to-failure.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, Final version with minor change

Properties of Foreshocks and Aftershocks of the Non-Conservative SOC Olami-Feder-Christensen Model: Triggered or Critical Earthquakes?

Following Hergarten and Neugebauer [2002] who discovered aftershock and foreshock sequences in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this model is sufficient to account for the properties of earthquake clustering in time and space. Our main finding is that synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model share practically all properties of real seismicity at a qualitative level, with however significant quantitative differences. We find that OFC catalogs can be in large part described by the concept of triggered seismicity but the properties of foreshocks depend on the mainshock magnitude, in qualitative agreement with the critical earthquake model and in disagreement with simple models of triggered seismicity such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. Many other features of OFC catalogs can be reproduced with the ETAS model with a weaker clustering than real seismicity, i.e. for a very small average number of triggered earthquakes of first generation per mother-earthquake.Comment: revtex, 19 pages, 8 eps figure

On the Occurrence of Finite-Time-Singularities in Epidemic Models of Rupture, Earthquakes and Starquakes

We present a new kind of critical stochastic finite-time-singularity, relying on the interplay between long-memory and extreme fluctuations. We illustrate it on the well-established epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model for aftershocks, based solely on the most solidly documented stylized facts of seismicity (clustering in space and in time and power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake energies). This theory accounts for the main observations (power law acceleration and discrete scale invariant structure) of critical rupture of heterogeneous materials, of the largest sequence of starquakes ever attributed to a neutron star as well as of earthquake sequences.Comment: Revtex document of 4 pages including 1 eps figur

The critical earthquake concept applied to mine rockbursts with time-to-failure analysis

We report new tests of the critical earthquake concepts performed on rockbursts in deep South African mines. We extend the concept of an optimal time and space correlation region and test it on the eight main shocks of our catalog provided by ISSI. In a first test, we use the simplest signature of criticality in terms of a power law time-to-failure formula. Notwithstanding the fact that the search for the optimal correlation size is performed with this simple power law, we find evidence both for accelerated seismicity and for the presence of logperiodic behavior with a prefered scaling factor close to 2. We then propose a new algorithm based on a space and time smoothing procedure, which is also intended to account for the finite range and time mechanical interactions between events. This new algorithm provides a much more robust and efficient construction of the optimal correlation region, which allows us the use of the logperiodic formula directly in the search process. In this preliminary work, we have only tested the new algorithm on the largest event on the catalog. The result is of remarkable good quality with a dramatic improvement in accuracy and robustness. This confirms the potential importance of logperiodic signals. Our study opens the road for an efficient implemention of a systematic testing procedure of real-time predictions.Comment: 22 pages, 32 figure

Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

Subtropical grass pollen allergens are important for allergic respiratory diseases in subtropical regions

Background: Grass pollen allergens are a major cause of allergic respiratory disease but traditionally prescribing practice for grass pollen allergen-specific immunotherapy has favoured pollen extracts of temperate grasses. Here we aim to compare allergy to subtropical and temperate grass pollens in patients with allergic rhinitis from a subtropical region of Australia. Methods. Sensitization to pollen extracts of the subtropical Bahia grass (Paspalum notatum), Johnson grass (Sorghum halepense) and Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) as well as the temperate Ryegrass (Lolium perenne) were measured by skin prick in 233 subjects from Brisbane. Grass pollen-specific IgE reactivity was tested by ELISA and cross-inhibition ELISA. Results: Patients with grass pollen allergy from a subtropical region showed higher skin prick diameters with subtropical Bahia grass and Bermuda grass pollens than with Johnson grass and Ryegrass pollens. IgE reactivity was higher with pollen of Bahia grass than Bermuda grass, Johnson grass and Ryegrass. Patients showed asymmetric cross-inhibition of IgE reactivity with subtropical grass pollens that was not blocked by temperate grass pollen allergens indicating the presence of species-specific IgE binding sites of subtropical grass pollen allergens that are not represented in temperate grass pollens. Conclusions: Subtropical grass pollens are more important allergen sources than temperate grass pollens for patients from a subtropical region. Targeting allergen-specific immunotherapy to subtropical grass pollen allergens in patients with allergic rhinitis in subtropical regions could improve treatment efficacy thereby reducing the burden of allergic rhinitis and asthma

Genetic variants regulating ORMDL3 expression contribute to the risk of childhood asthma

Asthma is caused by a combination of poorly understood genetic and environmental factors(1,2). We have systematically mapped the effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs) on the presence of childhood onset asthma by genome-wide association. We characterized more than 317,000 SNPs in DNA from 994 patients with childhood onset asthma and 1,243 non-asthmatics, using family and case-referent panels. Here we show multiple markers on chromosome 17q21 to be strongly and reproducibly associated with childhood onset asthma in family and case-referent panels with a combined P value of P < 10(-12). In independent replication studies the 17q21 locus showed strong association with diagnosis of childhood asthma in 2,320 subjects from a cohort of German children (P=0.0003) and in 3,301 subjects from the British 1958 Birth Cohort (P=0.0005). We systematically evaluated the relationships between markers of the 17q21 locus and transcript levels of genes in Epstein - Barr virus (EBV)-transformed lymphoblastoid cell lines from children in the asthma family panel used in our association study. The SNPs associated with childhood asthma were consistently and strongly associated (P < 10(-22)) in cis with transcript levels of ORMDL3, a member of a gene family that encodes transmembrane proteins anchored in the endoplasmic reticulum(3). The results indicate that genetic variants regulating ORMDL3 expression are determinants of susceptibility to childhood asthma.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62682/1/nature06014.pd

Insights into the Binding of Phenyltiocarbamide (PTC) Agonist to Its Target Human TAS2R38 Bitter Receptor

Humans' bitter taste perception is mediated by the hTAS2R subfamily of the G protein-coupled membrane receptors (GPCRs). Structural information on these receptors is currently limited. Here we identify residues involved in the binding of phenylthiocarbamide (PTC) and in receptor activation in one of the most widely studied hTAS2Rs (hTAS2R38) by means of structural bioinformatics and molecular docking. The predictions are validated by site-directed mutagenesis experiments that involve specific residues located in the putative binding site and trans-membrane (TM) helices 6 and 7 putatively involved in receptor activation. Based on our measurements, we suggest that (i) residue N103 participates actively in PTC binding, in line with previous computational studies. (ii) W99, M100 and S259 contribute to define the size and shape of the binding cavity. (iii) W99 and M100, along with F255 and V296, play a key role for receptor activation, providing insights on bitter taste receptor activation not emerging from the previously reported computational models

The neural processing of taste

Although there have been many recent advances in the field of gustatory neurobiology, our knowledge of how the nervous system is organized to process information about taste is still far from complete. Many studies on this topic have focused on understanding how gustatory neural circuits are spatially organized to represent information about taste quality (e.g., "sweet", "salty", "bitter", etc.). Arguments pertaining to this issue have largely centered on whether taste is carried by dedicated neural channels or a pattern of activity across a neural population. But there is now mounting evidence that the timing of neural events may also importantly contribute to the representation of taste. In this review, we attempt to summarize recent findings in the field that pertain to these issues. Both space and time are variables likely related to the mechanism of the gustatory neural code: information about taste appears to reside in spatial and temporal patterns of activation in gustatory neurons. What is more, the organization of the taste network in the brain would suggest that the parameters of space and time extend to the neural processing of gustatory information on a much grander scale

Analysis of the Effects of Polymorphism on Pollen Profilin Structural Functionality and the Generation of Conformational, T- and B-Cell Epitopes

An extensive polymorphism analysis of pollen profilin, a fundamental regulator of the actin cytoskeleton dynamics, has been performed with a major focus in 3D-folding maintenance, changes in the 2-D structural elements, surface residues involved in ligands-profilin interactions and functionality, and the generation of conformational and lineal B- and T-cell epitopes variability. Our results revealed that while the general fold is conserved among profilins, substantial structural differences were found, particularly affecting the special distribution and length of different 2-D structural elements (i.e. cysteine residues), characteristic loops and coils, and numerous micro-heterogeneities present in fundamental residues directly involved in the interacting motifs, and to some extension these residues nearby to the ligand-interacting areas. Differential changes as result of polymorphism might contribute to generate functional variability among the plethora of profilin isoforms present in the olive pollen from different genetic background (olive cultivars), and between plant species, since biochemical interacting properties and binding affinities to natural ligands may be affected, particularly the interactions with different actin isoforms and phosphoinositides lipids species. Furthermore, conspicuous variability in lineal and conformational epitopes was found between profilins belonging to the same olive cultivar, and among different cultivars as direct implication of sequences polymorphism. The variability of the residues taking part of IgE-binding epitopes might be the final responsible of the differences in cross-reactivity among olive pollen cultivars, among pollen and plant-derived food allergens, as well as between distantly related pollen species, leading to a variable range of allergy reactions among atopic patients. Identification and analysis of commonly shared and specific epitopes in profilin isoforms is essential to gain knowledge about the interacting surface of these epitopes, and for a better understanding of immune responses, helping design and development of rational and effective immunotherapy strategies for the treatment of allergy diseases. [EN]This study was supported by the following European Regional Development Fund co-financed grants: MCINN BFU 2004-00601/BFI, BFU 2008-00629, BFU2011-22779, CICE (Junta de Andalucía) P2010-CVI15767, P2010-AGR6274 and P2011-CVI-7487, and by the coordinated project Spain/Germany MEC HA2004-0094. JCJ-L thanks Spanish CSIC and the European Marie Curie research program for his I3P-BPD-CSIC, and PIOF-GA-2011-301550 grants, respectively.Peer reviewe