Ensemble-based data assimilation for operational flood forecasting – On the merits of state estimation for 1D hydrodynamic forecasting through the example of the “Adour Maritime” river

This study presents the implementation and the merits of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm with an inflation procedure on the 1D shallow water model MASCARET in the framework of operational flood forecasting on the “Adour Maritime” river (South West France). In situ water level observations are sequentially assimilated to correct both water level and discharge. The stochastic estimation of the background error statistics is achieved over an ensemble of MASCARET integrations with perturbed hydrological boundary conditions. It is shown that the geometric characteristics of the network as well as the hydrological forcings and their temporal variability have a significant impact on the shape of the univariate (water level) and multivariate (water level and discharge) background error covariance functions and thus on the EnKF analysis. The performance of the EnKF algorithm is examined for observing system simulation experiments as well as for a set of eight real flood events (2009–2014). The quality of the ensemble is deemed satisfactory as long as the forecast lead time remains under the transfer time of the network, when perfect hydrological forcings are considered. Results demonstrate that the simulated hydraulic state variables can be improved over the entire network, even where no data are available, with a limited ensemble size and thus a computational cost compatible with operational constraints. The improvement in the water level Root-Mean-Square Error obtained with the EnKF reaches up to 88% at the analysis time and 40% at a 4-h forecast lead time compared to the standalone model

Phase-space structure of two-dimensional excitable localized structures

In this work we characterize in detail the bifurcation leading to an excitable regime mediated by localized structures in a dissipative nonlinear Kerr cavity with a homogeneous pump. Here we show how the route can be understood through a planar dynamical system in which a limit cycle becomes the homoclinic orbit of a saddle point (saddle-loop bifurcation). The whole picture is unveiled, and the mechanism by which this reduction occurs from the full infinite-dimensional dynamical system is studied. Finally, it is shown that the bifurcation leads to an excitability regime, under the application of suitable perturbations. Excitability is an emergent property for this system, as it emerges from the spatial dependence since the system does not exhibit any excitable behavior locally.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

Characterization of Few Mode Fibers by OLCI Technique

International audienceAll LP modes of a few mode fiber are simultaneously characterized using phase-sensitive optical low-coherence interferometry. The differential modal group delay and absolute chromatic dispersion values of each mode are retrieved from a single measurement without spatial mode transformers

Worm Structure in Modified Swift-Hohenberg Equation for Electroconvection

A theoretical model for studying pattern formation in electroconvection is proposed in the form of a modified Swift-Hohenberg equation. A localized state is found in two dimension, in agreement with the experimentally observed ``worm" state. The corresponding one dimensional model is also studied, and a novel stationary localized state due to nonadiabatic effect is found. The existence of the 1D localized state is shown to be responsible for the formation of the two dimensional ``worm" state in our model

A note on the extension of the polar decomposition for the multidimensional Burgers equation

It is shown that the generalizations to more than one space dimension of the pole decomposition for the Burgers equation with finite viscosity and no force are of the form u = -2 viscosity grad log P, where the P's are explicitly known algebraic (or trigonometric) polynomials in the space variables with polynomial (or exponential) dependence on time. Such solutions have polar singularities on complex algebraic varieties.Comment: 3 pages; minor formatting and typos corrected. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E (Rapid Comm.

Flame front propagation V: Stability Analysis of Flame Fronts: Dynamical Systems Approach in the Complex Plane

We consider flame front propagation in channel geometries. The steady state solution in this problem is space dependent, and therefore the linear stability analysis is described by a partial integro-differential equation with a space dependent coefficient. Accordingly it involves complicated eigenfunctions. We show that the analysis can be performed to required detail using a finite order dynamical system in terms of the dynamics of singularities in the complex plane, yielding detailed understanding of the physics of the eigenfunctions and eigenvalues.Comment: 17 pages 7 figure

Domain Walls in Non-Equilibrium Systems and the Emergence of Persistent Patterns

Domain walls in equilibrium phase transitions propagate in a preferred direction so as to minimize the free energy of the system. As a result, initial spatio-temporal patterns ultimately decay toward uniform states. The absence of a variational principle far from equilibrium allows the coexistence of domain walls propagating in any direction. As a consequence, *persistent* patterns may emerge. We study this mechanism of pattern formation using a non-variational extension of Landau's model for second order phase transitions. PACS numbers: 05.70.Fh, 42.65.Pc, 47.20.Ky, 82.20MjComment: 12 pages LaTeX, 5 postscript figures To appear in Phys. Rev.

Flame front propagation IV: Random Noise and Pole-Dynamics in Unstable Front Propagation II

The current paper is a corrected version of our previous paper arXiv:adap-org/9608001. Similarly to previous version we investigate the problem of flame propagation. This problem is studied as an example of unstable fronts that wrinkle on many scales. The analytic tool of pole expansion in the complex plane is employed to address the interaction of the unstable growth process with random initial conditions and perturbations. We argue that the effect of random noise is immense and that it can never be neglected in sufficiently large systems. We present simulations that lead to scaling laws for the velocity and acceleration of the front as a function of the system size and the level of noise, and analytic arguments that explain these results in terms of the noisy pole dynamics.This version corrects some very critical errors made in arXiv:adap-org/9608001 and makes more detailed description of excess number of poles in system, number of poles that appear in the system in unit of time, life time of pole. It allows us to understand more correctly dependence of the system parameters on noise than in arXiv:adap-org/9608001Comment: 23 pages, 4 figures,revised, version accepted for publication in journal "Combustion, Explosion and Shock Waves". arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:nlin/0302021, arXiv:adap-org/9608001, arXiv:nlin/030201

Quasiperiodic waves at the onset of zero Prandtl number convection with rotation

We show the possibility of quasiperiodic waves at the onset of thermal convection in a thin horizontal layer of slowly rotating zero-Prandtl number Boussinesq fluid confined between stress-free conducting boundaries. Two independent frequencies emerge due to an interaction between a stationary instability and a self-tuned wavy instability in presence of coriolis force, if Taylor number is raised above a critical value. Constructing a dynamical system for the hydrodynamical problem, the competition between the interacting instabilities is analyzed. The forward bifurcation from the conductive state is self-tuned.Comment: 9 pages of text (LaTex), 5 figures (Jpeg format

Multistable Pulse-like Solutions in a Parametrically Driven Ginzburg-Landau Equation

It is well known that pulse-like solutions of the cubic complex Ginzburg-Landau equation are unstable but can be stabilised by the addition of quintic terms. In this paper we explore an alternative mechanism where the role of the stabilising agent is played by the parametric driver. Our analysis is based on the numerical continuation of solutions in one of the parameters of the Ginzburg-Landau equation (the diffusion coefficient $c$), starting from the nonlinear Schr\"odinger limit (for which $c=0$). The continuation generates, recursively, a sequence of coexisting stable solutions with increasing number of humps. The sequence "converges" to a long pulse which can be interpreted as a bound state of two fronts with opposite polarities.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures; to appear in PR