The Secular and Cyclic Behavior of "True" Construction Costs

Current construction cost indices typically are derived by applying national weights to local costs for materials and labor. In this study, construction cost indices are developed that are based on actual contractor tenders for projects. As such, they incorporate full variation in factor proportions, as well as factor costs, contractor overhead, and profit. Cost indices are produced for two product types, office and multi-family residential, in six different MSAs using F.W. Dodge project cost data from 1967 through the first half of 2004. Standard ‘‘hedonic’’ analysis is applied to control for variation in project scale and features to extract the true time trends in costs for each market. The findings indicated that real construction costs generally have fallen slightly over the last 35 years. In addition, no correlation is found between costs and building activity. Causal (IV) analysis implies that the construction industry is elastically supplied to local real estate markets, with any ‘‘excess’’ profits going to land and developer entrepreneurship. This is consistent with the traditional ‘‘urban land economics’’ literature.

Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

Developmental contexts and features of elite academy football players: Coach and player perspectives

Player profiling can reap many benefits; through reflective coach-athlete dialogue that produces a profile the athlete has a raised awareness of their own development, while the coach has an opportunity to understand the athlete's viewpoint. In this study, we explored how coaches and players perceived the development features of an elite academy footballer and the contexts in which these features are revealed, in order to develop a player profile to be used for mentoring players. Using a Delphi polling technique, coaches and players experienced a number of 'rounds' of expressing their opinions regarding player development contexts and features, ultimately reduced into a consensus. Players and coaches had differing priorities on the key contexts of player development. These contexts, when they reflect the consensus between players and coaches were heavily dominated by ability within the game and training. Personal, social, school, and lifestyle contexts featured less prominently. Although 'discipline' was frequently mentioned as an important player development feature, coaches and players disagreed on the importance of 'training'

The Human Nose Not in the Centre of the Face. Its Importance in the Adjustment of Spectacles.

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Psychologie der Kreativität

Ein kleiner Streifzug durch die psychologische Kreativitätsforschung befasst sich mit den Möglichkeiten der Erfassung kreativer Prozesse, ihrer Manifestation, den Determinanten, der Frage nach der Notwendigkeit zu kreativem Denken und schließlich Erkenntnissen darüber, wie kreatives Denken gefördert werden kann

A dual process account of creative thinking

This article explicates the potential role played by type 1 thinking (automatic, fast) and type 2 thinking (effortful, logical) in creative thinking. The relevance of Evans's (2007) models of conflict of dual processes in thinking is discussed with regards to creative thinking. The role played by type 1 thinking and type 2 thinking during the different stages of creativity (problem finding and conceptualization, incubation, illumination, verification and dissemination) is discussed. It is proposed that although both types of thinking are active in creativity, the extent to which they are active and the nature of their contribution to creativity will vary between stages of the creative process. Directions for future research to test this proposal are outlined; differing methodologies and the investigation of different stages of creative thinking are discussed. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

The landscape of gifted and talented education in England and Wales: How are teachers implementing policy?

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Research Papers in Education, 27(2), 167-186, 2012, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02671522.2010.509514.This paper explores the evidence relating to how primary schools are responding to the ‘gifted and talented’ initiative in England and Wales. A questionnaire survey which invited both closed and open-ended responses was carried out with a national sample of primary schools. The survey indicated an increasing proportion of coordinators, compared with a survey carried out in 1996, were identifying their gifted and talented children as well as having associated school policies. However, the survey also highlighted a number of issues which need addressing if the initiative is to achieve its objective of providing the best possible educational opportunities for children. For example, it was found that a significant number of practitioners were not aware of the existence of the National Quality Standards for gifted and talented education, provided by the UK government in 2007, and the subject-specific criteria provided by the UK’s Curriculum Authority for identification and provision have been largely ignored. The process of identifying children to be placed on the ‘gifted and talented’ register seems haphazard and based on pragmatic reasons. Analysis of teachers’ responses also revealed a range of views and theoretical positioning held by them, which have implications for classroom practice. As the ‘gifted and talented’ initiative in the UK is entering a second decade, and yet more significant changes in policy are introduced, pertinent questions need to be raised and given consideration

Comparative Analysis Between Physical Activity Affect and Discrete Emotions in College Students

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate empirical distinctness and overlap between physical activity (PA) affect and emotions as well as potential unique relationships with PA beliefs and behaviors. Specifically, researchers wanted to explore the level of shared variance amongst discrete emotions and affect, which in effect tested the jingle-jangle fallacy that can be present in psychometric evaluation of related constructs. Participants: College students (N=519; Mage= 20.47) enrolled in PA courses at two universities in the Southeastern United States completed questionnaires concerning their PA related emotions, affect, self-efficacy, and self-reported PA. Methods: Confirmatory factor analysis and structural modeling were used to evaluate factor structure and hypothesized relationships. Results: Sound factor analysis was identified with affect related to several emotions, including strong correlations between enjoyment and positive affect, suggesting some construct and measurement intersection. Regression results showed emotions produced stronger relationships with self-efficacy and PA compared to affect. Conclusions: While conceptual overlap did exist, measuring several discrete emotions over the dichotomous affective measure may be more insightful and provide specificity in explaining PA decisions. More research is needed on the use of PA emotions