Bayesian inference on earthquake size distribu- tion: a case study in Italy

This paper is focused on the study of earthquake size statistical distribution by using Bayesian inference. The strategy consists in the definition of an a priori distribution based on instrumental seismicity, and modeled as a power law distribution. By using the observed historical data, the power law is then modified in order to obtain the posterior distribution. The aim of this paper is to define the earthquake size distribution using all the seismic database available (i.e., instrumental and historical catalogs) and a robust statistical technique. We apply this methodology to the Italian seismicity, dividing the territory in source zones as done for the seismic hazard assessment, taken here as a reference model. The results suggest that each area has its own peculiar trend: while the power law is able to capture the mean aspect of the earthquake size distribution, the posterior emphasizes different slopes in different areas. Our results are in general agreement with the ones used in the seismic hazard assessment in Italy. However, there are areas in which a flattening in the curve is shown, meaning a significant departure from the power law behavior and implying that there are some local aspects that a power law distribution is not able to capture

Games on Cellular Spaces: How Mobility Affects Equilibrium

In this work we propose a new model for spatial games. We present a definition of mobility in terms of the satisfaction an agent has with its spatial location. Agents compete for space through a non-cooperative game by using mixed strategies. We are particularly interested in studyig the relation between Nash equilibrium and the winner strategy of a given model with mobility, and how the mobility can affect the results. The experiments show that mobility is an important variable concerning spatial games. When we change parameters that affect mobility, it may lead to the success of strategies away from Nash equilibrium.Spatial Games, Agent-Based Modelling, Mobility, Satisfaction, Chicken Game, Nash Equilibrium

Planck LFI flight model feed horns

this paper is part of the Prelaunch status LFI papers published on JINST: http://www.iop.org/EJ/journal/-page=extra.proc5/jinst The Low Frequency Instrument is optically interfaced with the ESA Planck telescope through 11 corrugated feed horns each connected to the Radiometer Chain Assembly (RCA). This paper describes the design, the manufacturing and the testing of the flight model feed horns. They have been designed to optimize the LFI optical interfaces taking into account the tight mechanical requirements imposed by the Planck focal plane layout. All the eleven units have been successfully tested and integrated with the Ortho Mode transducers.Comment: This is an author-created, un-copyedited version of an article accepted for publication in JINST. IOP Publishing Ltd is not responsible for any errors or omissions in this version of the manuscript or any version derived from it. The definitive publisher authenticated version is available online at 10.1088/1748-0221/4/12/T1200

A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment

Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees of freedom that are often linked by nonlinear relationships (e.g. Bak et al. 1988). Except in sporadic cases, the result of this complexity is an intrinsic, and perhaps unavoidable, unpredictability of the time evolution of the volcanic system from a deterministic point of view

Linear Ramps of Interaction in the Fermionic Hubbard Model

We study the out of equilibrium dynamics of the Fermionic Hubbard Model induced by a linear ramp of the repulsive interaction $U$ from the metallic state through the Mott transition. To this extent we use a time dependent Gutzwiller variational method and complement this analysis with the inclusion of quantum fluctuations at the leading order, in the framework of a $Z_2$ slave spin theory. We discuss the dynamics during the ramp and the issue of adiabaticity through the scaling of the excitation energy with the ramp duration $\tau$. In addition, we study the dynamics for times scales longer than the ramp time, when the system is again isolated and the total energy conserved. We establish the existence of a dynamical phase transition analogous to the one present in the sudden quench case and discuss its properties as a function of final interaction and ramp duration. Finally we discuss the role of quantum fluctuations on the mean field dynamics for both long ramps, where spin wave theory is sufficient, and for very short ramps, where a self consistent treatment of quantum fluctuations is required in order to obtain relaxation.Comment: v2: 19 pages, 14 figures, published versio

Trade-off between angular resolution and straylight contamination in CMB anisotropy experiments. II. Straylight evaluation

Satellite CMB anisotropy missions and new generation of balloon-borne and ground experiments, make use of complex multi-frequency instruments at the focus of a meter class telescope. Between 70 GHz and 300 GHz, where foreground contamination is minimum, it is extremely important to reach the best trade-off between the improvement of the angular resolution and the minimization of the straylight contamination mainly due to the Galactic emission. We focus here, as a working case, on the 30 and 100 GHz channels of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI). We evaluate the GSC introduced by the most relevant Galactic foreground components for a reference set of optical configurations. We show that it is possible to improve the angular resolution of 5-7% by keeping the overall GSC below the level of few microKelvin. A comparison between the level of straylight introduced by the different Galactic components for different beam regions is presented. Simple approximate relations giving the rms and peak-to-peak levels of the GSC are provided. We compare the results obtained at 100 GHz with those at 30 GHz, where GSC is more critical. Finally, we compare the results based on Galactic foreground templates derived from radio and IR surveys with those based on WMAP maps including CMB and extragalactic source fluctuations.Comment: Submitted to A&A. Quality of the figures was degraded for size-related reason

The GRAAL high resolution BGO calorimeter and its energy calibration and monitoring system

We describe the electromagnetic calorimeter built for the GRAAL apparatus at the ESRF. Its monitoring system is presented in detail. Results from tests and the performance obtained during the first GRAAL experiments are given. The energy calibration accuracy and stability reached is a small fraction of the intrinsic detector resolution.Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures, submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Method

Development of groundwater radon continuous monitors: Comparison between α scintillation and γ spectrometry systems

Two temporised continuous monitoring systems, designed to measure the radon concentration in natural environments, mainly groundwater, were assembled, tested and cross-check compared, evaluating the background noise, sensitivity, calibration values and soundest application in the Earth Science framework. The two systems have been customised by DINCE Laboratory, based on best-fitting criteria selected according to the ING laboratory, partially in the frame of two EC funded, Geochemical Seismic Zonation (GSZ) and Automatic Geochemical Monitoring of Volcanoes, addressed to earthquake prediction research and prototype developing, aimed to seismic and volcanic risks surveillance. Following best-fitting criteria of the radon monitoring aimed to natural risk research, both systems are operative by discrete temporised sampling of an aliquot of groundwater, with a minimal interval of six hours. During their functioning at the ENEA Centre of Frascati (Rome), the test-site chosen, both systems provided a continuous and reliable response