Multi-stakeholder development of a serious game to explore the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus: The SIM4NEXUS approach

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Water, energy, food, land and climate form a tightly-connected nexus in which actions on one sector impact other sectors, creating feedbacks and unanticipated consequences. This is especially because at present, much scientific research and many policies are constrained to single discipline/sector silos that are often not interacting (e.g., water-related research/policy). However, experimenting with the interaction and determining how a change in one sector could impact another may require unreasonable time frames, be very difficult in practice and may be potentially dangerous, triggering any one of a number of unanticipated side-effects. Current modelling often neglects knowledge from practice. Therefore, a safe environment is required to test the potential cross-sectoral implications of policy decisions in one sector on other sectors. Serious games offer such an environment by creating realistic 'simulations', where long-term impacts of policies may be tested and rated. This paper describes how the ongoing (2016-2020) Horizon2020 project SIM4NEXUS will develop serious games investigating potential plausible cross-nexus implications and synergies due to policy interventions for 12 multi-scale case studies ranging from regional to global. What sets these games apart is that stakeholders and partners are involved in all aspects of the modelling definition and process, from case study conceptualisation, quantitative model development including the implementation and validation of each serious game. Learning from playing a serious game is justified by adopting a proof-of-concept for a specific regional case study in Sardinia (Italy). The value of multi-stakeholder involvement is demonstrated, and critical lessons learned for serious game development in general are presented.The work described in this paper has been conducted within the project SIM4NEXUS. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 689150 SIM4NEXUS

Effects of the 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption on groundwater resources (part I): Hydraulic impacts

The 2021 volcanic eruption in the Cumbre Vieja mountain range on La Palma Island (Canary Islands, Spain) raised concerns regarding the potential impact on groundwater resources. This study is the first part of a series of papers investigating those impacts, and focuses on the hydraulic impacts of the eruption, while subsequent papers will explore the geochemical consequences. Three boreholes equipped with sensors to measure hydraulic head, temperature, and electrical conductivity of groundwater were installed near the volcano. Monitoring started during the eruption and continued a year after it. Statistical analysis were performed to assess the relationship between the measured variables and real-time seismic-amplitude measurements (RSAM). In addition, the possibility of groundwater vaporization due to magma emergence was assessed with a groundwater flow numerical modelling of the island. Correlation coefficients were computed to assess the linear relationship between groundwater parameters and seismic signals, observing a statistically significant association, and suggesting near-instantaneous variations in parameters such as groundwater levels and EC. Different response patterns of groundwater levels were observed in recharging areas in highlands compared to discharge areas, showing an opposite correlation direction. Deduction of natural trends from the linear regression models of head and RSAM two months after the eruption revealed a more predictable impact on the groundwater system, as the hydrogeological system adjusts to the volcanic activity and its effects on the aquifer. The hydrogeological simulation of the "magma pumping effect" suggested that groundwater extraction was possible, but the absence of an appropriate groundwater monitoring network made it impossible to determine the amount of water extracted from the aquifer. The uncertainty analysis showed values up to 2000 m3·day−1. These findings have important implications for understanding the negative impacts of volcanic eruptions on groundwater resources, highlighting the need for regular monitoring and assessment by hydrogeologists and water management professionals

Effects of the 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption on groundwater resources (part II): Hydrochemical impacts

Volcanic eruptions can have significant implications for the management and sustainability of water resources in volcanic islands. The recent 2021 eruption of the Tajogaite volcano in La Palma Island (Canary Islands, Spain) raised concerns regarding its potential impact on groundwater resources. This study is the second part of a series investigating the hydrogeochemical impacts of the eruption. The study involved conducting three groundwater sampling campaigns during the eruption and two after the eruption, six months and one year after the eruption ceased. A total of 15 monitored points, including piezometers, wells, water galleries, and main gully collector of the island, all relatively close (2–15 km) to the erupted volcano, were sampled for the analysis of major, minor, and trace elements, physiochemical parameters, which were measured on-site. Statistical analyses were performed to assess the differences in groundwater composition before, during, and after the eruption. To evaluate the differences in water quality compared to pre-eruption events, 33 additional historical groundwater samples provided by the local Water Authority were assessed, and 103 groundwater analysis results from the groundwater data base of the Spanish National Geological Survey (IGME) were considered. The results of the study showed low but statistically significant changes in pH, T, conductivity and groundwater composition, mainly related to the high increases in several trace element concentrations, such as Al, Cr, Fe, Mo, Ni, Sr, Th, Tl, V, Zn, Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Pb and U, with increments in various orders of magnitude for several elements. This increase was found to be highly influenced by the sample distance to the volcano during the eruption stage. The significance of these findings lies in their usefulness to enhance our understanding of the effects of volcanic eruptions on groundwater quality resources and demonstrate their resilience to this hazardous phenomenon, which ultimately underscores their reliability

Non-lethal control of the cariogenic potential of an agent-based model for dental plaque

Dental caries or tooth decay is a prevalent global disease whose causative agent is the oral biofilm known as plaque. According to the ecological plaque hypothesis, this biofilm becomes pathogenic when external challenges drive it towards a state with a high proportion of acid-producing bacteria. Determining which factors control biofilm composition is therefore desirable when developing novel clinical treatments to combat caries, but is also challenging due to the system complexity and the existence of multiple bacterial species performing similar functions. Here we employ agent-based mathematical modelling to simulate a biofilm consisting of two competing, distinct types of bacterial populations, each parameterised by their nutrient uptake and aciduricity, periodically subjected to an acid challenge resulting from the metabolism of dietary carbohydrates. It was found that one population was progressively eliminated from the system to give either a benign or a pathogenic biofilm, with a tipping point between these two fates depending on a multiplicity of factors relating to microbial physiology and biofilm geometry. Parameter sensitivity was quantified by individually varying the model parameters against putative experimental measures, suggesting non-lethal interventions that can favourably modulate biofilm composition. We discuss how the same parameter sensitivity data can be used to guide the design of validation experiments, and argue for the benefits of in silico modelling in providing an additional predictive capability upstream from in vitro experiments

A mathematical model of quorum sensing regulated EPS production in biofilm communities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Biofilms are microbial communities encased in a layer of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). The EPS matrix provides several functional purposes for the biofilm, such as protecting bacteria from environmental stresses, and providing mechanical stability. Quorum sensing is a cell-cell communication mechanism used by several bacterial taxa to coordinate gene expression and behaviour in groups, based on population densities.</p> <p>Model</p> <p>We mathematically model quorum sensing and EPS production in a growing biofilm under various environmental conditions, to study how a developing biofilm impacts quorum sensing, and conversely, how a biofilm is affected by quorum sensing-regulated EPS production. We investigate circumstances when using quorum-sensing regulated EPS production is a beneficial strategy for biofilm cells.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that biofilms that use quorum sensing to induce increased EPS production do not obtain the high cell populations of low-EPS producers, but can rapidly increase their volume to parallel high-EPS producers. Quorum sensing-induced EPS production allows a biofilm to switch behaviours, from a colonization mode (with an optimized growth rate), to a protection mode.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A biofilm will benefit from using quorum sensing-induced EPS production if bacteria cells have the objective of acquiring a thick, protective layer of EPS, or if they wish to clog their environment with biomass as a means of securing nutrient supply and outcompeting other colonies in the channel, of their own or a different species.</p

Incorporating Ecosystems in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Current Perspective and Future Directions

Integrated approaches for managing natural resources are needed to meet the increasing demand for freshwater, energy and food, while, in parallel, mitigating and adapting to climate change, maintaining the integrity of ecosystems, and ensuring equitable access to resources. The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus has been proposed as a cross-sectoral approach to understand, analyse, and manage the complex trade-offs and exploit synergies that arise among these resource sectors. Although not initially included as a component of the Nexus, the importance of ecosystems in supporting water, energy and food security is increasingly recognised by the Nexus community of researchers and practitioners. However, attempts to conceptually integrate Ecosystems into the Nexus have yet to converge into a common framework. A group of natural resources management researchers, system thinkers and ecosystem services experts from the European network COST Action CA20138 NEXUSNET have compiled and investigated the various approaches for integrating ecosystems in the WEF Nexus. By combining literature analysis with interdisciplinary workshops – one of which was held in a hybrid format (in person and online) at the University of Oulu, Finland, in September 2022 – we reveal a multiplicity of concepts utilised to represent, partially or fully, ecosystems in the Nexus, namely “natural environment”, “ecosystem services” and “biodiversity”. Disparity was also found in the role attributed to ecosystems in the Nexus framework, being it an underlying layer from which resources for Nexus sectors are extracted or the pillar of an expanded Nexus system – i.e., the WEF-Ecosystems Nexus. Through this collaborative effort, we present possible advantages and disadvantages of adopting differential WEF-Ecosystems Nexus approaches, highlighting their potential complementarity and integration to support future advancement of Nexus research. In the oral presentation, we will show our preliminary findings and encourage the exchange of ideas and feedback from the different scientific disciplines present at the CEMEPE Conference.Tenth International Conference on Environmental Management, Engineering, Planning and Economics (CEMEPE) & SECOTOX Conference organized by: Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and Society of Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety (SECOTOX), Skiathos island, Greece, 2023

GREY WATER FOOTPRINT OF CROPS AND CROP-DERIVED PRODUCTS: ANALYSIS OF CALCULATION METHOD

The explosive increase in world population, along with the fast socio-economic development, have led to an increased water demand; the impact of global water resource consumption is mapped with the "water footprint", which is the total volume of freshwater used to produce the goods and services consumed. "Virtual water" is the volume of water used to produce a commodity, and is classified as green, blue and grey. "Blue water" refers to the volume of fresh water consumed along the supply chain of a product; "green" quantifies the volume of precipitation stored as soil moisture, and "grey" measures the volume of water required to dilute pollutants associated with a product's production chain to meet ambient water quality standards. When applied to agricultural crops, the calculation of grey water requires the following quantities: fertilizer application rate, crop yield, fertilizer leaching fraction, maximum allowed pollutant concentration in natural waters, and in the water where pollution is rejected. Much of this data is unavailable and researchers seem to proceed with a series of assumptions to calculate grey water figures. In this article, the common assumptions are reviewed, and prominence is given to weaknesses and the sensitivity of the calculation method

Biosensors for aquaculture and food safety

Harmful Algal Blooms create serious problems in coastal waters and estuaries, affecting both water quality and aesthetics, but also threatening human health associated with the transfer of toxins in the human food chain through toxin-affected shellfish and fish. The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive defines the contaminants that should be monitored, as they threaten the Good Environmental Status of waters and biosensors are a highly promising technology that can produce online real-time measurements that could be used by early warning systems safeguarding human and marine ecosystem health. The state of the art in ocean in situ biosensors for aquaculture and food safety is presented herein. A series of challenges are described and areas where innovations should be focused are identified. © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Using System Dynamics Modelling to visualize the effects of resource management and policy interventions on biodiversity at a regional scale

A methodology and a System Dynamics Model is constructed, using published data from the IUCN Red List Index database, that can be used to quantify the biodiversity status. The methodology is implemented for the Nestos River catchment in Greece. It is intended to help the authorities run scenarios of different interventions, addressing the specific problems and threats to the local ecosystem that each community might be facing. The methodology enables them to see and quantify biodiversity improvements as a result of these interventions. It compares and contrasts four specific threats to the ecosystem, identified from stakeholder consultation workshops, namely solid waste, agriculture, domestic wastewater and dams and water management/use. The effects of each one of the interventions to the species in the region and to the modified Red List Index overall are presented and compared, showcasing the dams as the most deleterious threat to the local ecosystem. Finally, an easy to use interface is developed and introduced to better connect the stakeholders with the scientific analysis and facilitate informed decision-making that could lead to smarter policy implementation. This would result insetting priorities for interventions and investments concerning improvement of the ecological status and biodiversity. © 2022 The Author(s