Are PPP tests erratically behaved? Some panel evidence

This paper examines whether, in addition to standard unit root and cointegration tests, panel approaches also produce test statistics behaving erratically when applied to PPP. We show that if appropriate tests (which are robust to cross-sectional dependence and more powerful) are used, any evidence of erratic behaviour disappears, and strong empirical support is found for PPP. It appears therefore that recent advances in panel data econometrics might enable us to settle the PPP debate

Cointegration tests of PPP: Do they also exhibit erratic behaviour?

We analyse whether tests of PPP exhibit erratic behaviour (as previously reported by Caporale et al., 2003) even when (possibly unwarranted) homogeneity and proportionality restrictions are not imposed, and trivariate cointegration (stage-three) tests between the nominal exchange rate, domestic and foreign price levels are carried out (instead of stationarity tests on the real exchange rate, as in stage-two tests). We examine the US dollar real exchange rate vis-à-vis 21 other currencies over a period of more than a century, and find that stage-three tests produce similar results to those for stage-two tests, namely the former also behave erratically. This confirms that neither of these traditional approaches to testing for PPP can solve the issue of PPP

International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004, and carries out “second-generation” tests for non-stationary panels. Several factors, including international financial integration, are shown to drive the long-run RER in emerging countries. It is found that the new financial environment characterised by international financial integration leads to a depreciation of the RER in the long run. Further, RER misalignments take the form of an under-valuation in most MENA countries and an over-valuation in most Latin American and Asian countries

Rating assignments: Lessons from international banks

This paper estimates ordered logit and probit regression models for bank ratings which also include a country index to capture country-specific variation. The empirical findings provide support to the hypothesis that the individual international bank ratings assigned by Fitch Ratings are underpinned by fundamental quantitative financial analyses. Also, there is strong evidence of a country effect. Our model is shown to provide accurate predictions of bank ratings for the period prior to the 2007 – 2008 banking crisis based upon publicly available information. However, our results also suggest that quantitative models are not likely to be able to predict ratings with complete accuracy. Furthermore, we find that both quantitative models and rating agencies are likely to produce highly inaccurate predictions of ratings during periods of financial instability

Sources of real exchange rate volatility and international financial integration: A dynamic GMM panel data approach

The aim of this paper is to provide some new empirical evidence on the determinants of volatility of real exchange rates in emerging countries, focusing on the role of international financial integration in particular. A reduced-form model is estimated using the GMM method for dynamic panels over the period 1979-2004 for a sample of 39 developing countries grouped into three regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). Our findings suggest that different types of shocks (external, real and monetary) can account for volatility of real exchange rates in emerging economies, with international financial integration being a major driving force. Therefore, financial liberalisation and integration should be pursued only gradually in emerging countries

The impact of association agreements on trade flows and the trade balance: Evidence from the CEEC-4

In this paper we focus on the trade balance effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries using a dynamic panel data approach. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to analyse the effect of the agreement variable is the system generalized method of moments (GMM). Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. However, exports and imports are affected in different ways, leading to some disparity in trade flow performance between countries. Therefore, there is an asymmetric impact on the trade balance, the agreement variable resulting in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC-4

Determinants of pollution abatement and control expenditure: Evidence from Romania

The aim of the present study is to shed some light on the factors affecting Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditure (PACE) in the context of a transition economy such as Romania, in contrast to the existing literature which mostly focuses on developed economies. Specifically, we use survey data of the Romanian National Institute of Statistics and estimate Multilevel Regression Model (MRM) to investigate the determinants of environmental behaviour at plant level. Our results reveal some important differences vis-à-vis the developed countries, such as a less significant role for collective action and environmental taxes, which suggests some possible policy changes to achieve better environmental outcomes

On the trade balance effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. However, exports and imports are affected differently, leading to some disparity in trade flow performance between countries. Therefore, there is an asymmetric impact on the trade balance, the agreement variable resulting in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC

Trade specialisation, and economic convergence: Evidence from two eastern european countries

This paper analyses trade specialisation dynamics in two Eastern European countries (Romania and Bulgaria – EEC-2) vis-à-vis the core EU member states (EU-15) over the period 1990-2006. Specifically, we focus on whether there is a shift towards intra-industry trade leading to economic convergence and technological catch-up. We use recently developed static (FEM, REM and FEVD) and dynamic (GMM) panel data methods which take into account possible heterogeneity. Our empirical results indicate that intra-industry trade has indeed increased, but it is of the vertical rather than the horizontal type, resulting in complementary rather than competitive production patterns

The Bds Test As A Test For The Adequacy Of A Garch(1,1) Specification: A Monte Carlo Study

In this study we examine the widely used Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test when applied to the logarithm of the standardized residuals of an estimated GARCH(1,1) model as a test for the adequacy of this speciÞcation. We review the conditions derived by De Lima (1996, Econometric Reviews, 15, 237-259) for the nuisance-parameter free property to hold, and address the issue of their necessity, using the ßexible framework offered by the GARCH(1,1) model in terms of moment, memory and time heterogeneity properties. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the BDS test statistic still approximates the standard null distribution even for mildly explosive processes that violate the majority of the conditions. Thus, the test performs reasonably well, its empirical size being rather close to the nominal one. As a by-product of this study, we also shed light on the related issue of consistency of the QML estimators of the conditional variance parameters under various parameter conÞgurations and alternative distributional assumptions on the innovation process