The leading digit distribution of the worldwide Illicit Financial Flows

Benford's law states that in data sets from different phenomena leading digits tend to be distributed logarithmically such that the numbers beginning with smaller digits occur more often than those with larger ones. Particularly, the law is known to hold for different types of financial data. The Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) exiting the developing countries are frequently discussed as hidden resources which could have been otherwise properly utilized for their development. We investigate here the distribution of the leading digits in the recent data on estimates of IFFs to look for the existence of a pattern as predicted by Benford's law and establish that the frequency of occurrence of the leading digits in these estimates does closely follow the law.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, 6 tables, additional data analyi

Applying Benford’s law to detect accounting data manipulation in the banking industry

We utilise Benford’s Law to test if balance sheet and income statement data broadly used to assess bank soundness were manipulated prior to and also during the global financial crisis. We find that all banks resort to loan loss provisions to manipulate earnings and income upwards. Distressed institutions that have stronger incentives to conceal their financial difficulties resort additionally to manipulating loan loss allowances and non-performing loans downwards. Moreover, manipulation is magnified during the crisis and expands to encompass regulatory capital

Benford's law predicted digit distribution of aggregated income taxes: the surprising conformity of Italian cities and regions

The yearly aggregated tax income data of all, more than 8000, Italian municipalities are analyzed for a period of five years, from 2007 to 2011, to search for conformity or not with Benford's law, a counter-intuitive phenomenon observed in large tabulated data where the occurrence of numbers having smaller initial digits is more favored than those with larger digits. This is done in anticipation that large deviations from Benford's law will be found in view of tax evasion supposedly being widespread across Italy. Contrary to expectations, we show that the overall tax income data for all these years is in excellent agreement with Benford's law. Furthermore, we also analyze the data of Calabria, Campania and Sicily, the three Italian regions known for strong presence of mafia, to see if there are any marked deviations from Benford's law. Again, we find that all yearly data sets for Calabria and Sicily agree with Benford's law whereas only the 2007 and 2008 yearly data show departures from the law for Campania. These results are again surprising in view of underground and illegal nature of economic activities of mafia which significantly contribute to tax evasion. Some hypothesis for the found conformity is presented.Comment: 18 pages, 5 tables, 4 figures, 61 references, To appear in European Physical Journal

Assessment and validation of a suite of reverse transcription-quantitative PCR reference genes for analyses of density-dependent behavioural plasticity in the Australian plague locust

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Australian plague locust, <it>Chortoicetes terminifera</it>, is among the most promising species to unravel the suites of genes underling the density-dependent shift from shy and cryptic solitarious behaviour to the highly active and aggregating gregarious behaviour that is characteristic of locusts. This is because it lacks many of the major phenotypic changes in colour and morphology that accompany phase change in other locust species. Reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) is the most sensitive method available for determining changes in gene expression. However, to accurately monitor the expression of target genes, it is essential to select an appropriate normalization strategy to control for non-specific variation between samples. Here we identify eight potential reference genes and examine their expression stability at different rearing density treatments in neural tissue of the Australian plague locust.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Taking advantage of the new orthologous DNA sequences available in locusts, we developed primers for genes encoding 18SrRNA, ribosomal protein L32 (RpL32), armadillo (Arm), actin 5C (Actin), succinate dehydrogenase (SDHa), glyceraldehyde-3P-dehydrogenase (GAPDH), elongation factor 1 alpha (EF1a) and annexin IX (AnnIX). The relative transcription levels of these eight genes were then analyzed in three treatment groups differing in rearing density (isolated, short- and long-term crowded), each made up of five pools of four neural tissue samples from 5^thinstar nymphs. SDHa and GAPDH, which are both involved in metabolic pathways, were identified as the least stable in expression levels, challenging their usefulness in normalization. Based on calculations performed with the geNorm and NormFinder programs, the best combination of two genes for normalization of gene expression data following crowding in the Australian plague locust was EF1a and Arm. We applied their use to studying a target gene that encodes a Ca²⁺binding glycoprotein, <it>SPARC</it>, which was previously found to be up-regulated in brains of gregarious desert locusts, <it>Schistocerca gregaria</it>. Interestingly, expression of this gene did not vary with rearing density in the same way in brains of the two locust species. Unlike <it>S. gregaria</it>, there was no effect of any crowding treatment in the Australian plague locust.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Arm and EF1a is the most stably expressed combination of two reference genes of the eight examined for reliable normalization of RT-qPCR assays studying density-dependent behavioural change in the Australian plague locust. Such normalization allowed us to show that <it>C. terminifera </it>crowding did not change the neuronal expression of the <it>SPARC </it>gene, a gregarious phase-specific gene identified in brains of the desert locust, <it>S. gregaria</it>. Such comparative results on density-dependent gene regulation provide insights into the evolution of gregarious behaviour and mass migration of locusts. The eight identified genes we evaluated are also candidates as normalization genes for use in experiments involving other Oedipodinae species, but the rank order of gene stability must necessarily be determined on a case-by-case basis.</p