Twentieth-century Trends in the Annual Cycle of Temperature across the Northern Hemisphere

The annual cycle of surface air temperature is examined across Northern Hemisphere land areas (north of 25°N) by comparing the results from CRUTS against four reanalysis datasets: two versions of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR and 20CRC) and two versions of the ERA-CLIM reanalyses (ERA-20C and ERA-20CM). The Modulated Annual Cycle is adaptively derived from an Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) filter, and is used to define the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle. The EEMD method does not impose a simple sinusoidal shape of the annual cycle. None of the reanalysis simulations assimilate surface temperature data, but differ in the parameters that are included: both ERA-20C and 20CR assimilate surface pressure data; ERA-20C also includes surface wind data over the oceans; ERA-20CM does not assimilate any of these synoptic data; and none of the reanalyses assimilate land-use data. It is demonstrated that synoptic variability is critical for explaining the trends and variability of the annual cycle of surface temperature across the northern hemisphere. The CMIP5 forcings alone are insufficient to explain the observed trends and decadal-scale variability, particularly with respect to the decline in the amplitude of the annual cycle throughout the twentieth century. The variability in the annual cycle during the latter half of the twentieth century was unusual in the context of the twentieth century, and was most likely related to large-scale atmospheric variability, although uncertainty in the results is greatest before ca. 1930

CLASSnmat: A global night marine air temperature data set, 1880–2019

A new data set of Night Marine Air Temperature (NMAT) is presented that builds on the HadNMAT2 data set, which was released in 2013. In a similar manner to HadNMAT2, the new data set (CLASSnmat) provides uninterpolated, monthly global values at a 5° resolution back to 1880. In addition to being extended to the end of 2019, four main developments are made in CLASSnmat: (1) the NMAT values are extracted from the most recent version of the International Comprehensive Ocean‐Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS Release 3) and a revised method of eliminating duplicated observations is used; (2) values of NMAT are adjusted to 2m and 20m heights in addition to the 10 m height used in HadNMAT2; (3) a refinement is made to the corrections necessary during World War 2, which uses more of the NMAT observations and hence results in a more extensive spatial coverage for this period than was possible in HadNMAT2; (4) an updated gridding method is used that allows for an improved propagation of uncertainty from the individual NMAT values through to the gridded estimates. In this paper, the method used to construct CLASSnmat (version 1.0.0.0) is described

The seasonal characteristics of English Channel storminess have changed since the 19th Century

Information from a variety of sources has suggested that increased storminess was experienced across the British Isles in the late eighteenth/early nineteenth century. However, it is not clear how stormy that period was relative to current conditions. Using newly recovered barometric pressure data that extend back to 1748 we have constructed a measure of geostrophic wind speed for the English Channel region using a pressure-triangle approach. We show that the 1790−1820s was a period of increased storminess across the region. This storminess extended throughout the year, which is different to comparable increases observed since the 1990s, which were confined to the winter season. While a strengthened North Atlantic jet stream is implicated in both periods, in the earlier period it is likely that the storm track shifted slightly to a more southerly location. We discuss the potential forcing mechanisms responsible for the changes in storminess over this multi-century timeframe

Tax evasion and exchange equity: a reference-dependent approach

The standard portfolio model of tax evasion with a public good produces the perverse conclusion that when taxpayers perceive the public good to be under-/overprovided, an increase in the tax rate increases/decreases evasion. The author treats taxpayers as thinking in terms of gains and losses relative to an endogenous reference level, which reflects perceived exchange equity between the value of taxes paid and the value of public goods supplied. With these alternative behavioral assumptions, the author overturns the aforementioned result in a direction consistent with the empirical evidence. The author also finds a role for relative income in determining individual responses to a change in the marginal rate of tax

Causes of death among homeless people: a population-based cross-sectional study of linked hospitalisation and mortality data in England. [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Background: Homelessness has increased by 165% since 2010 in England, with evidence from many settings that those affected experience high levels of mortality. In this paper we examine the contribution of different causes of death to overall mortality in homeless people recently admitted to hospitals in England with specialist integrated homeless health and care (SIHHC) schemes.  Methods: We undertook an analysis of linked hospital admission records and mortality data for people attending any one of 17 SIHHC schemes between 1st November 2013 and 30th November 2016. Our primary outcome was death, which we analysed in subgroups of 10th version international classification of disease (ICD-10) specific deaths; and deaths from amenable causes. We compared our results to a sample of people living in areas of high social deprivation (IMD5 group). Results: We collected data on 3,882 individual homeless hospital admissions that were linked to 600 deaths. The median age of death was 51.6 years (interquartile range 42.7-60.2) for SIHHC and 71.5 for the IMD5 (60.67-79.0).  The top three underlying causes of death by ICD-10 chapter in the SIHHC group were external causes of death (21.7%; 130/600), cancer (19.0%; 114/600) and digestive disease (19.0%; 114/600).  The percentage of deaths due to an amenable cause after age and sex weighting was 30.2% in the homeless SIHHC group (181/600) compared to 23.0% in the IMD5 group (578/2,512). Conclusion: Nearly one in three homeless deaths were due to causes amenable to timely and effective health care. The high burden of amenable deaths highlights the extreme health harms of homelessness and the need for greater emphasis on prevention of homelessness and early healthcare interventions

Outcomes of specialist discharge coordination and intermediate care schemes for patients who are homeless: analysis protocol for a population-based historical cohort

Introduction People who are homeless often experience poor hospital discharge arrangements, reflecting ongoing care and housing needs. Specialist integrated homeless health and care provision (SIHHC) schemes have been developed and implemented to facilitate the safe and timely discharge of homeless patients from hospital. Our study aims to investigate the health outcomes of patients who were homeless and seen by a selection of SIHHC services. Methods and analysis Our study will employ a historical population-based cohort in England. We will examine health outcomes among three groups of adults: (1) homeless patients seen by specialist discharge schemes during their hospital admission; (2) homeless patients not seen by a specialist scheme and (3)admitted patients who live in deprived neighbourhoods and were not recorded as being homeless. Primary outcomes will be: time from discharge to next hospital inpatient admission; time from discharge to next accident and emergency attendance and 28-day emergency readmission. Outcome data will be generated through linkage to hospital admissions data (Hospital Episode Statistics) and mortality data for November 2013 to November 2016. Multivariable regression will be used to model the relationship between the study comparison groups and each of the outcomes. Ethics and dissemination Approval has been obtained from the National Health Service (NHS) Confidentiality Advisory Group (reference 16/CAG/0021) to undertake this work using unconsented identifiable data. Health Research Authority Research Ethics approval (REC 16/EE/0018) has been obtained in addition to local research and development approvals for data collection at NHS sites. We will feedback the results of our study to our advisory group of people who have lived experience of homelessness and seek their suggestions on ways to improve or take this work further for their benefit. We will disseminate our findings to SIHHC schemes through a series of regional workshops

A reappraisal of the thermal growing season length across Europe

Growing season length (GSL) indices derived from surface air temperature are frequently used in climate monitoring applications. The widely used Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) definition aims to give a broadly applicable measure of the GSL that is indicative of the duration of the mild part of the year. In this paper long‐term trends in that index are compared with an alternative measure calculated using a time series decomposition technique (empirical ensemble mode decomposition [EEMD]). It is demonstrated that the ETCCDI index departs from the mild‐season definition as its start and end dates are determined by temperature events operating within the synoptic timescale; this raises the inter‐annual variance of the index. The EEMD‐derived index provides a less noisy and more realistic index of the GSL by filtering out the synoptic‐scale variance and capturing the annual‐cycle and longer timescale variability. Long‐term trends in the GSL are comparable between the two indices, with an average increase in length of around 5 days/decade observed for the period 1965–2016. However, the results using the EEMD index display a more coherent picture of significant trends than has been previously observed. Furthermore, the EEMD‐derived growing season parameters are more closely related to variations in seasonal‐mean hemispheric‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns, with around 57% of the inter‐annual variation in the start of the growing season being connected to the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic patterns, and around 55% of variation in the end of the growing season being associated with East Atlantic/west Russia‐type patterns

Patient identification and tube labelling:a call for harmonisation

Venous blood sampling (phlebotomy) is the most common invasive procedure performed in patient care. Guidelines on the correct practice of phlebotomy are available, including the H3-A6 guideline issued by the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). As the quality of practices and procedures related to venous blood sample collection in European countries was unknown, the European Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (EFLM) Working Group for the Preanalytical Phase conducted an observational study in 12 European countries. The study demonstrated that the level of compliance of phlebotomy procedures with the CLSI H3-A6 guideline was unacceptably low, and that patient identification and tube labelling are amongst the most critical steps in need of immediate attention and improvement. The process of patient identification and tube labelling is an essential safety barrier to prevent patient identity mix-up. Therefore, the EFLM Working Group aims to encourage and support worldwide harmonisation of patient identification and tube labelling procedures in order to reduce the risk of preanalytical errors and improve patient safety. With this Position paper we wish to raise awareness and provide recommendations for proper patient and sample identification procedure