Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods

Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven price series are analyzed. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price, which explains why global fertilizer prices reached a peak in 2008. We also find that that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods, and that the peak crude oil price caused greater volatility in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices. As volatility invokes financial risk, the relationship between oil price and global fertilizer prices and their associated volatility is important for public policy relating to the development of optimal energy use, global agricultural production, and financial integration

An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS

Persistent and multisite homophobic harassment during childhood and adolescence and its association with school difficulties in gay and bisexual men in Taiwan

Background: Homophobic harassment can compromise mental health of sexual minority youths. Objectives: This study examined the rates of persistent and multisite homophobic harassment and their associations with school difficulties during childhood and adolescence among gay and bisexual men in Taiwan. Methods: Participants were recruited through advertisements on the Facebook, Bulletin Board Systems, and the home pages of health promotion and counseling centers for the gay, lesbian, and bisexual community. The experiences of traditional and cyber harassment based on gender role nonconformity and sexual orientation of 500 gay or bisexual men were examined. The associations of multisite and persistent harassment victimization with school difficulties were evaluated. Results: A total of 239 (47.8%) and 131 (26.2%) participants experienced persistent and multisite harassment victimization, respectively. Harassment victimization was significantly associated with low satisfaction with academic performance in any stage of study. Moreover, the participants who were harassed in senior high schools were more likely to miss classes or be truant than those who were not harassed. The victims of multisite harassment at senior high schools were more likely to miss classes or be truant than those of school-only harassment. Discussion: Prevention and intervention programs are warranted to reduce homophobic harassment in sexual minority youths

Hepatocyte ABCA1 Deletion Impairs Liver Insulin Signaling and Lipogenesis

Plasma membrane (PM) free cholesterol (FC) is emerging as an important modulator of signal transduction. Here, we show that hepatocyte-specific knockout (HSKO) of the cellular FC exporter, ATPbinding cassette transporter A1 (ABCA1), leads to decreased PM FC content and defective trafficking of lysosomal FC to the PM. Compared with controls, chow-fed HSKO mice had reduced hepatic (1) insulin- stimulated Akt phosphorylation, (2) activation of the lipogenic transcription factor Sterol Regulatory Element Binding Protein (SREBP)-1c, and (3) lipogenic gene expression. Consequently, Westerntype diet-fed HSKO mice were protected from steatosis. Surprisingly, HSKO mice had intact glucose metabolism; they showed normal gluconeogenic gene suppression in response to re-feeding and normal glucose and insulin tolerance. We conclude that: (1) ABCA1 maintains optimal hepatocyte PM FC, through intracellular FC trafficking, for efficient insulin signaling; and (2) hepatocyte ABCA1 deletion produces a form of selective insulin resistance so that lipogenesis is suppressed but glucose metabolism remains normal

Analyzing collaborative learning processes automatically

In this article we describe the emerging area of text classification research focused on the problem of collaborative learning process analysis both from a broad perspective and more specifically in terms of a publicly available tool set called TagHelper tools. Analyzing the variety of pedagogically valuable facets of learners’ interactions is a time consuming and effortful process. Improving automated analyses of such highly valued processes of collaborative learning by adapting and applying recent text classification technologies would make it a less arduous task to obtain insights from corpus data. This endeavor also holds the potential for enabling substantially improved on-line instruction both by providing teachers and facilitators with reports about the groups they are moderating and by triggering context sensitive collaborative learning support on an as-needed basis. In this article, we report on an interdisciplinary research project, which has been investigating the effectiveness of applying text classification technology to a large CSCL corpus that has been analyzed by human coders using a theory-based multidimensional coding scheme. We report promising results and include an in-depth discussion of important issues such as reliability, validity, and efficiency that should be considered when deciding on the appropriateness of adopting a new technology such as TagHelper tools. One major technical contribution of this work is a demonstration that an important piece of the work towards making text classification technology effective for this purpose is designing and building linguistic pattern detectors, otherwise known as features, that can be extracted reliably from texts and that have high predictive power for the categories of discourse actions that the CSCL community is interested in