Bootstrap Confidence Bands for Forecast Paths

The problem of forecasting from vector autoregressive models has attracted considerable attention in the literature. The most popular non-Bayesian approaches use large sample normal theory or the bootstrap to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the forecast. The literature has concentrated on the problem of assessing the uncertainty of the prediction for a single period. This paper considers the problem of how to assess the uncertainty when the forecasts are done for a succession of periods. It describes and evaluates bootstrap method for constructing confidence bands for forecast paths. The bands are constructed from forecast paths obtained in bootstrap replications with an optimisation procedure used to find the envelope of the most concentrated paths. The method is shown to have good coverage properties in a Monte Carlo study.vector autoregression, forecast path, bootstrapping, simultaneous statistical inference

On the power of direct tests for rational expectations against the alternative of constant gain learning

In this paper we study the power of direct tests for rational expectations against the constant gain learning alternative. The investigation is by means of a Monte Carlo study. The tests considered use quantitative expectations data and qualitative survey data that has been quantified. The main finding is that the power of tests for rational expectations against constant gain learning may be very small, making it impossible to distinguish the hypotheses.adaptive learning, tests for rational expectations, quantification methods, constant gain least squares

Infographics As a Tool for Improving Effectiveness of Education

This paper defines the criteria of effective infographics for education. Visualizing information, including that with the help of infographics, is one of the mechanisms to optimize the learning process both in traditional and online format. In the first part    of the paper, the author gives a theoretical definition of infographics as a contracted multi-level polysemantic thing. The methodological basis for discussion is provided by the cognitive approach in psyhology and philosophy (R. Arnheim, R. Solso, Y. Valkman) and visual studies (I. Itten, B. Latour, D.  Roem, H. Schiffman). Deriving  the properties of effective infographics, the author seeks to harmonize empirical  data and the results of theoretical studies. The infographic aspects formulated by E.Tafti, Priego, and F. Verbitsky are compared with the results of a survey by L. Harrison on the aesthetic properties of effective infographics. Features of infographics such as scalability, structure-based, focusing on the key points, visual simplicity, and emphasis on the relationship between elements, are by author defined. The difference between infographics and other graphical products is demonstrated. For education it is particularly important that the logic of a structure or image ensures the contraction of information. In turn, the contracted information looks compact and concise. ”Real” infographics have a visual clarity, presence of composition, colour, and image-bearing reference points. Systematic manner enhances the process of developing additional meanings. Aesthetics of the designer‘s infographics represent the reverse side of expediency and logic of a project decision. Th3e article concludes with a discussion of the need to use a cognitive approach to infographics by designers who create effective educational products. Keywords: design, graphic design, infographics, definition of infographics, infographics for the on-line course, participatory design, surve

Russian perspectives of online learning technologies in higher education: An empirical study of a MOOC

There has been a rapid growth of massive open online courses (MOOCs) in the global education market in the last decade. Online learning technologies are becoming increasingly widespread in the non-formal education sector and in higher and supplementary vocational education. The use of MOOCs in Russia to support the delivery of educational programmes at university level opens opportunities in terms of expanding the educational choice for students, the development of virtual academic mobility, reduction in the cost of educational services, and improvement in the accessibility of education. However, the effectiveness of using different online learning technologies at university level, and the consequences of their widespread adoption, has not been sufficiently explored. In this research study, a comparative analysis is made of the effects of different online learning models on student educational outcomes in a university setting. A study was undertaken in which different groups of students at the Ural Federal University, Russia, were encouraged to study technical and humanities disciplines using a framework of blended learning, and online learning with tutoring support. The results of the study were compared with the results of a reference (control) group of students who studied the same disciplines in a traditionally taught model. It was found that both models (blended and online) of MOOC implementation demonstrated greater learning gains, in comparison with the traditional model. For engineering and technical disciplines, there was no statistically significant difference between blended or online learning technologies. For the humanities discipline, where the communicative component of the learning process was significant, the blended learning technology produced better results. Conclusions of this empirical research may be useful for heads of educational organizations and teachers in helping them to make strategic decisions about the modernization of university courses by increasing the effectiveness of the implementation of new educational technologies. The results of this research project will be used for implementing the State Priority Project, ‘The Modern Digital Educational Environment of the Russian Federation’

From the City-Plant to the Socialist City: Losses and Acquisitions of Human and Architecture

The article has proved the comprehensive approaches to the formation of the architectural and urban environment of the founders of the Ural industrial settlements (city-plants) of the 18-19th centuries and the socialist cities of the 20th century. These approaches were determined mainly by climatic, geographic and economic circumstances. It has been shown that the orientation toward the goals external to the city (economic benefit, conformity to ideological doctrine) destroys and deforms the primary, more humane, and sustainable goals, based on the succession of the town-planning tradition of the Ural region.   Keywords: City-plant, industrial city, socialist city, architecture, historical and cultural heritage of the Ural

Design Discourse: An Outline of the Terminological Apparatus

Design is a relatively young field, increasingly in demand in modern culture – not only within its professionally established limits but also as a technique for generating new ideas and products in business, education, urbanism etc. Strengthening the professional boundaries of design as a form-building activity whose purpose is harmonization of human material environment can be done through a discursive approach. It provides the opportunity to “equalize” the material and ideal origins of design. This article explores the implementation mechanisms and the specific language means of design discourse. The necessity of giving conceptual status of such terms as “concept”, “sketch”, “layout”, “module”, “thing” and various others is shown. This research into the social-communicative aspect of design allows to develop an original and relevant system of concepts that can help not only to analyse the design processes and forms but also to establish its limits. This could help to address a number of more concrete theoretical problems, including specific design methods that distinguish it from artistic, architectural, marketing and general research methods. Keywords: design, design discourse, design thinking, form, objectivity, project, project implementation, concep

Physical and Augmented Reality As Elements of Visual Culture: Proportions in Educational Products for Persons with ASD

This article raises the question of the impossibility of standardized use of augmented reality technologies in the educational process. This approach changes the status of augmented reality and transforms it into a phenomenon of visual culture. The authors represent a hypothetical ratio of physical and augmented realities in educational products for people with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), considering their needs, behavioral patterns and states. The proportion is based on the authors’ advanced research. Keywords: augmented reality, visual culture, education, educational product, needs, autism spectrum disorders

The ethics of designer’s project activity

Статья посвящена определению этических аспектов дизайна как специфической социокультурной сферы творческой формообразующей деятельности. Низкая степень теоретической разработанности вопроса требует начальной систематизации этических проблем в ситуациях проектирования и использования продуктов дизайна, а также изучения реальных этических практик участников дизайн-процесса. Автор производит такую систематизацию на основе выработанного ранее представления о дизайне как системе.The article is devoted to defining the ethical aspects of design as a specific social and cultural sphere of creative formative activities. Lack of the theoretical elaboration of the issue requires an initial systematization of ethical problems in project- and using situations, and researches of ethical practices between the participants of the design process. The author makes a classification on the basis of the pre-formed ideas about design as a system