Sovereign credit ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean: history and impact on bond spreads

In this study, we examine the history of sovereign credit ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean, the evolution of credit quality, and the relationship between rating changes and the cost of accessing external financing as reflected in the behavior of sovereign bond spreads. We apply an event study to estimate the impact of credit rating changes on sovereign bond spreads in the past fifteen years. We find that the impact is asymmetric (with a larger impact for downgrades) and is sensitive to both spatial and temporal clustering. The results suggest that the quality of sovereign credit is important in determining the cost of access to private external financing

Las tasas de interés estadounidenses, la deuda latinoamericana y el contagio financiero

Incluye BibliografíaEste artículo examina de qué manera los títulos de deuda latinoamericanos se vieron afectados,en el comportamiento de sus márgenes, por las variaciones de las tasas de interés estadounidenses en la segunda mitad del decenio de 1990. El análisis empírico muestra que,contrariamente a lo que sugiere el marco teórico, en este período los márgenes (spreads);de los bonos de los mercados emergentes y las tasas de interés estadounidenses se movieron en direcciones opuestas;sugiere que hubo contagio financiero; apoya la tesis de que la contracción de la liquidez y el contagio financiero pueden contrarrestar el efecto de esas tasas de interés sobre los márgenes de los bonos de mercados emergentes en épocas de turbulencia económica y financiera,transformándose así en los factores de más peso en la evolución de esos márgenes;y corrobora que la mayor integración financiera que caracteriza al proceso de globalización actual ha acrecentado la vulnerabilidad de las economías en desarrollo a las perturbaciones externas

Asymmetries and cooperation in the Free Trade Area of the Americas

Includes bibliographyAbstract The prospective Free Trade Agreement of the Americas seeks to link the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (with the exception of Cuba); with Canada and the United States, thereby forming the largest free trade area in the world. Given the huge asymmetries in the size and level of development of participating countries, the major challenge in this ambitious and complex process will be to ensure that all countries, especially the smallest and least developed ones, benefit from trade liberalization within the hemisphere. This study argues that whether FTAA translates into benefits for its members will depend largely on how these asymmetries are addressed. In particular, countries will need to conserve margins of flexibility in fostering productive development in order to increase their competitiveness and manage their capital accounts as instruments of macroeconomic regulation. According to the study, new and ambitious initiatives, such as the creation of cohesion or integration funds, and an increase in the international mobility of labour will also be necessary in order to achieve convergence in the levels of development of participating countries

Asimetrías y cooperación en el Area de Libre Comercio de las Américas

Incluye BibliografíaResumen El posible Acuerdo de Libre Comercio de las Américas(ALCA), busca vincular a los países de América Latina y el Caribe(con excepción de Cuba) con Canadá y los Estados Unidos, en lo que constituirá el área de libre comercio más grande del mundo. Dadas las enormes asimetrías de tamaño y nivel de desarrollo entre los países participantes, el gran desafío de este ambicioso y complejo proceso será que todos los países, sobre todo los más pequeños y menos desarrollados, puedan beneficiarse de la liberalización hemisférica del comercio. En este ensayo se argumenta que la posibilidad de que el ALCA se traduzca en beneficios para todos sus miembros dependerá, en gran parte, de la manera en que se encaren estas asimetrías. En particular, ello requiere que los países conserven márgenes de flexibilidad para fomentar el desarrollo productivo, a fin de aumentar la competitividad, y manejar la cuenta de capitales como instrumento de regulación macroeconómica. Por otra parte, se argumenta que para alcanzar una convergencia en los niveles de desarrollo de los países participantes es necesario considerar nuevas y ambiciosas iniciativas, como la creación de fondos de cohesión o integración así como el aumento de la movilidad internacional de mano de obra

Productividad y trabajo de la mujer en los Estados Unidos

Incluye BibliografíaEn este artículo se pretende estimar el efecto que ha tenido sobre la productividad el desplazamiento de mujeres desde el hogar hacia el trabajo asalariado ocurrido en los Estados Unidos en 1960-1980. Se cuestiona en él la validez de una aseveración frecuentemente citada: que la creciente participación de mujeres en la fuerza de trabajo ha reducido la productividad. Se argumenta que el producto nacional bruto tradicional subestima, en relación con una medida más amplia de la producción económica, el crecimiento de la productividad durante períodos de incorporación creciente de mujeres a la fuerza de trabajo. Se demuestra que el desplazamiento de mujeres desde el hogar hacia el trabajo asalariado que ocurrió en esos años representó una reasignación eficiente de horas de trabajo. Las estimaciones cuantitativas de los cambios en la productividad para una economía que incluye tanto el sector doméstico como el de mercado, muestran que el desplazamiento de mujeres fuera del sector doméstico tuvo efectos positivos e importantes en la productividad. Aunque la mayor productividad debido al desplazamiento de mujeres fuera del sector doméstico no contrarrestó completamente la caída de la productividad del sector privado en el período, sí la moderó considerablemente

Countering the Novelty Effect: A Tutorial for Immersive Virtual Reality Learning Environments

Immersive Virtual Reality (iVR) is a new technology, the novelty effect of which can reduce the enjoyment of iVR experiences and, especially, learning achievements when presented in the classroom; an effect that the interactive tutorial proposed in this research can help overcome. Its increasingly complex levels are designed on the basis of Mayer’s Cognitive Theory of Multimedia Learning, so that users can quickly gain familiarity with the iVR environment. The tutorial was included in an iVR learning experience for its validation with 65 users. It was a success, according to the user satisfaction and tutorial usability survey. First, it gained very high ratings for satisfaction, engagement, and immersion. Second, high skill rates suggested that it helped users to gain familiarity with controllers. Finally, a medium-high value for flow pointed to major concerns related to skill and challenges with this sort of iVR experience. A few cases of cybersickness also arose. The survey showed that only intense cybersickness levels significantly limited performance and enjoyment; low levels had no influence on flow and immersion and little influence on skill, presence, and engagement, greatly reducing the benefits of the tutorial, despite which it remained useful.This work was partially supported by the ACIS project (Reference Number INVESTUN/21/BU/0002) of the Consejeria de Empleo e Industria of the Junta de Castilla y León (Spain), the Erasmus+ RISKREAL Project (Reference Number 2020-1-ES01-KA204-081847) of the European Commission and the HumanAid Project (Reference Number TED2021-129485B-C43) of the Proyectos Estratégicos Orientados a la Transición Ecológica y a la Transición Digital of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation

Human papilloma virus genotypes in dysplasia and epithelial hyperplasia of oral cavity using the luminex xmap technology. A multicenter study

Oral cancer associated with high risk (HPV-HR) human papilloma virus (HPV) has been increasing. HPV-HR has been associated with epithelial dysplasia, however, little information exists on its frequency in epithelial hyperplasia lesions. The aim of this study is to compare HPV genotypes in dysplastic and hyperplastic lesions of oral cavity. Two hundred and fifty oral lesions: 131 dysplasia and 119 hyperplasia from two regions of Colombia were evaluated. One hundred seventy-four coming from urban area and 104 from a high risk population to oral cancer from a rural area. HPV was identified by qPCR and Twenty-four HPVs genotypes were evaluated by Luminex® technology. Logistic regressions were performed to establish the associations between HPV infections with oral dysplasia. Twenty-eight percent (70/250) of the samples were positives for any HPV and HPV-HRs were more frequently than low risk HPVs. HPV-16 was the most detected genotype (16%) followed by HPV-31, 53, 18 and 45. HPV, HPV-HRs and HPV-16 were only associated with dysplasia in urban area; OR 3.28 (CI 95% 1.49-7.17), OR 7.94 (CI 95% 2.97-21.2) and OR 5.90 (CI 95% 2.05-17). Individuals in rural area showed more HPV and HPV-HRs infection in hyperplasic lesions than urban population. The majority of HPV+ lesions had multi-type of HPV (52/70) and the urban individuals showed more genotypes than rural population. HPV-.HRs are frequently found in hyperplastic and dysplastic epithelial lesions. HPV-HRs and HPV-16 were associated with dysplasia in urban population. Rural high risk population and urban population differ in the frequency and variety of HPV genotypes

Interferon-Gamma Release Assays Differentiate between Mycobacterium avium Complex and Tuberculous Lymphadenitis in Children

Spanish Pediatric TB Research Network (pTBred) and the European NontuberculouS MycoBacterial Lymphadenitis in childrEn (ENSeMBLE) Study.[Objectives] To assess the performance of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) in the differential diagnosis between Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) and tuberculosis (TB) in children affected with subacute/chronic submandibular/cervical lymphadenitis.[Study design] Multicenter observational study comparing children with microbiologically confirmed MAC lymphadenitis from the European NontuberculouS MycoBacterial Lymphadenitis in childrEn study with children with TB lymphadenitis from the Spanish Network for the Study of Pediatric TB database.[Results] Overall, 78 patients with MAC and 34 with TB lymphadenitis were included. Among MAC cases, 44 out of 74 (59.5%) had positive tuberculin skin test (TST) results at the 5-mm cut-off, compared with 32 out of 33 (97%) TB cases (P < .001); at the 10-mm cut-off TST results were positive in 23 out of 74 (31.1%) vs 26 out of 31 (83.9%), respectively (P < .001). IGRA results were positive in only 1 out of 32 (3.1%) patients with MAC who had undergone IGRA testing, compared with 21 out of 23 (91.3%) TB cases (P < .001). Agreement between TST and IGRA results was poor in MAC (23.3%; κ = 0.017), but good in TB cases (95.6%; κ = 0.646). IGRAs had a specificity of 96.9% (95% CI 84.3%-99.8%), positive predictive value of 95.4% (95% CI 78.2%-99.8%), and negative predictive value of 93.9% (95% CI 80.4%-98.9%) for TB lymphadenitis.[Conclusions] In contrast to TST, IGRAs have high specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value for TB lymphadenitis in children with subacute/chronic lymphadenopathy, and consequently can help to discriminate between TB and MAC disease. Therefore, IGRAs are useful tools in the diagnostic work-up of children with lymphadenopathy, particularly when culture and polymerase chain reaction results are negative.Peer reviewe

The Canadian retirement income system

Includes bibliographyThis document was prepared by Inés Bustillo, Helvia Velloso and François Y. Vezina, consultants of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC, Washington Office. Prepared as a support to the document Shaping the Future of Social Protection: Access, Financing and Solidarity" presented in the XXXI ECLAC Session Period carried out in Montevideo, Uruguay during March, 20 to 24, 2006. The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization. Introduction The Canadian retirement income system (RIS) is generally considered a success story. Since 1971, senior citizens have experienced a significant improvement in their relative incomes, and an impressive number of seniors has moved out of poverty. The system provides most elderly Canadians at the low-to-middle income level with the means to largely preserve their living standards in retirement. At the same time, middle -to-high income households have an incentive to save for retirement because public pension benefits remain relatively modest. The reforms that have been implemented since the late 1990s have rendered the system viable in the long-run. They include a gradual increase in contributions (to a "steady-state" level) and in the amount of earnings subject to premium payments, changes in the administration and calculation of benefits, and the creation of an investment board to invest funds not immediately needed for benefits. However, the retirement of the baby boom generation, starting at the end of this decade, raises new challenges. The old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise sharply (Chart 1), and the RIS will have to cope with these new demographic trends. Although the adjustments to the RIS and the economic recovery of the late 1990s restored the financial health of the RIS, there is still scope for additional reforms in preparation for the retirement of the baby boom generation.

Access to international capital markets: recent developments in Central America and the Caribbean

The objective of this report is to analyze the impact of recent global financial trends on the access to private external financing by Central American and Caribbean (CAC) economies, as well as their performance in international capital markets in recent years. The CAC economies, like many other countries in the world, were not immune to the negative consequences of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008. In fact, their openness, export driven growth and linkages to advanced economies, particularly to the U.S., as well as size, made them more vulnerable than other Latin American countries to the negative effects of the crisis. In addition, their recovery was hindered by their weak linkages to the larger emerging market countries that drove global growth in the post-crisis recovery. As China and other emerging market economies begin to slowdown, however, and the U.S. and other advanced economies show signs of a strengthening recovery, the linkages to advanced economies may once again become a source of strength