On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Models

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either stochastic or deterministic processes. We analyse the implications for predictability in both of these situations by considering two separate solar dynamo models. The first model represents a stochastically-perturbed flux transport dynamo. Here even very weak stochastic perturbations can give rise to significant modulation in the activity cycle. This modulation leads to a loss of predictability. In the second model, we neglect stochastic effects and assume that generation of magnetic field in the Sun can be described by a fully deterministic nonlinear mean-field model -- this is a best case scenario for prediction. We designate the output from this deterministic model (with parameters chosen to produce chaotically modulated cycles) as a target timeseries that subsequent deterministic mean-field models are required to predict. Long-term prediction is impossible even if a model that is correct in all details is utilised in the prediction. Furthermore, we show that even short-term prediction is impossible if there is a small discrepancy in the input parameters from the fiducial model. This is the case even if the predicting model has been tuned to reproduce the output of previous cycles. Given the inherent uncertainties in determining the transport coefficients and nonlinear responses for mean-field models, we argue that this makes predicting the solar cycle using the output from such models impossible.Comment: 22 Pages, 5 Figures, Preprint accepted for publication in Ap

Convective intensification of magnetic fields in the quiet Sun

Kilogauss-strength magnetic fields are often observed in intergranular lanes at the photosphere in the quiet Sun. Such fields are stronger than the equipartition field B_e, corresponding to a magnetic energy density that matches the kinetic energy density of photospheric convection, and comparable with the field B_p that exerts a magnetic pressure equal to the ambient gas pressure. We present an idealised numerical model of three-dimensional compressible magnetoconvection at the photosphere, for a range of values of the magnetic Reynolds number. In the absence of a magnetic field, the convection is highly supercritical and is characterised by a pattern of vigorous, time-dependent, “granular” motions. When a weak magnetic field is imposed upon the convection, magnetic flux is swept into the convective downflows where it forms localised concentrations. Unless this process is significantly inhibited by magnetic diffusion, the resulting fields are often much greater than B_e, and the high magnetic pressure in these flux elements leads to their being partially evacuated. Some of these flux elements contain ultra-intense magnetic fields that are significantly greater than B_p. Such fields are contained by a combination of the thermal pressure of the gas and the dynamic pressure of the convective motion, and they are constantly evolving. These ultra-intense fields develop owing to nonlinear interactions between magnetic fields and convection; they cannot be explained in terms of “convective collapse” within a thin flux tube that remains in overall pressure equilibrium with its surroundings

Fluctuation dynamo and turbulent induction at low magnetic Prandtl numbers

This paper is a detailed report on a programme of simulations used to settle a long-standing issue in the dynamo theory and demonstrate that the fluctuation dynamo exists in the limit of large magnetic Reynolds number Rm>>1 and small magnetic Prandtl number Pm<<1. The dependence of the critical Rm_c vs. the hydrodynamic Reynolds number Re is obtained for 1<Re<6700. In the limit Pm<<1, Rm_c is ~3 times larger than for Pm>1. The stability curve Rm_c(Re) (and, it is argued, the nature of the dynamo) is substantially different from the case of the simulations and liquid-metal experiments with a mean flow. It is not as yet possible to determine numerically whether the growth rate is ~Rm^{1/2} in the limit Re>>Rm>>1, as should be the case if the dynamo is driven by the inertial-range motions. The magnetic-energy spectrum in the low-Pm regime is qualitatively different from the Pm>1 case and appears to develop a negative spectral slope, although current resolutions are insufficient to determine its asymptotic form. At 1<Rm<Rm_c, the magnetic fluctuations induced via the tangling by turbulence of a weak mean field are investigated and the possibility of a k^{-1} spectrum above the resistive scale is examined. At low Rm<1, the induced fluctuations are well described by the quasistatic approximation; the k^{-11/3} spectrum is confirmed for the first time in direct numerical simulations.Comment: IoP latex, 27 pages, 25 figures, 3 tables. Accepted by New J. Physic

A π-Extended Donor-Acceptor-Donor Triphenylene Twin linked via a Pyrazine-bridge

Beta-amino triphenylenes can be accessed via palladium catalyzed amination of the corresponding triflate using benzophe-none imine. Transformation of amine 6 to benzoyl amide 18 is also straightforward and its wide mesophase range demon-strates that the new linkage supports columnar liquid crystal formation. Amine 6 also undergoes clean aerobic oxidation to give a new twinned structure linked through an electron-poor pyrazine ring. The new discotic liquid crystal motif contains donor and acceptor fragments, and is more oval in shape rather than disk-like. It forms a wide range columnar mesophase. Absorption spectra are strong and broad; emission is also broad and occurs with a Stokes shift of ca. 0.7 eV, indicative of charge-transfer characte

Identification of novel pathogenic variants and features in patients with pseudohypoparathyroidism and acrodysostosis, subtypes of the newly classified inactivating PTH/PTHrP signaling disorders.

Albright hereditary osteodystrophy (AHO) is a complex disorder defined by the presence of a short adult stature relative to the height of an unaffected parent and brachydactyly type E, as well as a stocky build, round face, and ectopic calcifications. AHO and pseudohypoparathyroidism (PHP) have been used interchangeably in the past. The term PHP describes end-organ resistance to parathyroid hormone (PTH), occurring with or without the physical features of AHO. Conversely, pseudopseudohypoparathyroidism (PPHP) describes individuals with AHO features in the absence of PTH resistance. PHP and PPHP are etiologically linked and caused by genetic and/or epigenetic alterations in the guanine nucleotide-binding protein alpha-stimulating (Gs α) locus (GNAS) in chromosome 20q13. Another less-recognized group of skeletal dysplasias, termed acrodysostosis, partially overlap with skeletal, endocrine, and neurodevelopmental features of AHO/PHP and can be overlooked in clinical practice, causing confusion in the literature. Acrodysostosis is caused by defects in two genes, PRKAR1A and PDE4D, both encoding important components of the Gs α-cyclic adenosine monophosphate-protein kinase A signaling pathway. We describe the clinical course and genotype of two adult patients with overlapping AHO features who harbored novel pathogenic variants in GNAS (c.2273C > G, p.Pro758Arg, NM_080425.2) and PRKAR1A (c.803C > T, p.Ala268Val, NM_002734.4), respectively. We highlight the value of expert radiological opinion and molecular testing in establishing correct diagnoses and discuss phenotypic features of our patients, including the first description of subcutaneous ossification and spina bifida occulta in PRKAR1A-related acrodysostosis, in the context of the novel inactivating PTH/PTH related peptide signaling disorder classification system.Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centr

Poloxomer 188 Has a Deleterious Effect on Dystrophic Skeletal Muscle Function

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an X-linked, fatal muscle wasting disease for which there is currently no cure and limited palliative treatments. Poloxomer 188 (P188) is a tri-block copolymer that has been proposed as a potential treatment for cardiomyopathy in DMD patients. Despite the reported beneficial effects of P188 on dystrophic cardiac muscle function, the effects of P188 on dystrophic skeletal muscle function are relatively unknown. Mdx mice were injected intraperitoneally with 460 mg/kg or 30 mg/kg P188 dissolved in saline, or saline alone (control). The effect of single-dose and 2-week daily treatment was assessed using a muscle function test on the Tibialis Anterior (TA) muscle in situ in anaesthetised mice. The test comprises a warm up, measurement of the force-frequency relationship and a series of eccentric contractions with a 10% stretch that have previously been shown to cause a drop in maximum force in mdx mice. After 2 weeks of P188 treatment at either 30 or 460 mg/kg/day the drop in maximum force produced following eccentric contractions was significantly greater than that seen in saline treated control mice (P = 0.0001). Two week P188 treatment at either dose did not significantly change the force-frequency relationship or maximum isometric specific force produced by the TA muscle. In conclusion P188 treatment increases susceptibility to contraction-induced injury following eccentric contractions in dystrophic skeletal muscle and hence its suitability as a potential therapeutic for DMD should be reconsidered

Assessment of disease progression in dysferlinopathy: A 1-year cohort study

ObjectiveTo assess the ability of functional measures to detect disease progression in dysferlinopathy over 6 months and 1 year.MethodsOne hundred ninety-three patients with dysferlinopathy were recruited to the Jain Foundation's International Clinical Outcome Study for Dysferlinopathy. Baseline, 6-month, and 1-year assessments included adapted North Star Ambulatory Assessment (a-NSAA), Motor Function Measure (MFM-20), timed function tests, 6-minute walk test (6MWT), Brooke scale, Jebsen test, manual muscle testing, and hand-held dynamometry. Patients also completed the ACTIVLIM questionnaire. Change in each measure over 6 months and 1 year was calculated and compared between disease severity (ambulant [mild, moderate, or severe based on a-NSAA score] or nonambulant [unable to complete a 10-meter walk]) and clinical diagnosis.ResultsThe functional a-NSAA test was the most sensitive to deterioration for ambulant patients overall. The a-NSAA score was the most sensitive test in the mild and moderate groups, while the 6MWT was most sensitive in the severe group. The 10-meter walk test was the only test showing significant change across all ambulant severity groups. In nonambulant patients, the MFM domain 3, wrist flexion strength, and pinch grip were most sensitive. Progression rates did not differ by clinical diagnosis. Power calculations determined that 46 moderately affected patients are required to determine clinical effectiveness for a hypothetical 1-year clinical trial based on the a-NSAA as a clinical endpoint.ConclusionCertain functional outcome measures can detect changes over 6 months and 1 year in dysferlinopathy and potentially be useful in monitoring progression in clinical trials.ClinicalTrials.gov identifier:NCT01676077