Can groups improve expert economic and financial forecasts?

Economic and financial forecasts are important for business planning and government policy but are notoriously challenging. We take advantage of recent advances in individual and group judgement, and a data set of economic and financial forecasts compiled over 25 years, consisting of multiple individual and institutional estimates, to test the claim that nominal groups will make more accurate economic and financial forecast than individuals. We validate the forecasts using the subsequent published (real) outcomes, explore the performance of nominal groups against institutions, identify potential superforecasters and discuss the benefits of implementing structured judgment techniques to improve economic and financial forecasts

Improving expert forecasts in reliability. Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols

Quantitative expert judgementsare used in reliability assessmentsto informcritically important decisions. Structured elicitation protocols have been advocated to improveexpert judgements, yet their application in reliability ischallenged by a lack of examples or evidence that they improve judgements. This paper aims to overcome these barriers. We present a case study where two world-leading protocols, the IDEA protocol and the Classical Model were combined and applied by the Australian Department of Defence for a reliability assessment. We assess the practicality of the methods, and the extent to which they improve judgements. The average expert was extremely overconfident, with 90% credible intervals containing the true realisation 36% of the time. However,steps contained inthe protocols substantially improvedjudgements. In particular, an equal weighted aggregation of individual judgements, and the inclusion ofa discussion phase and revised estimate helped to improve calibration, statistical accuracy and the Classical Model score. Further improvements in precision and information were made via performance weighted aggregation. This paper provides useful insights into the application of structured elicitation protocols for reliability andthe extent to which judgements are improved. The findings raise concerns about existing practices for utilising experts in reliability assessments and suggest greater adoption of structured protocols is warranted. We encourage the reliability community to further develop examples and insights

The value of performance weights and discussion in aggregated expert judgements

In risky situations characterized by imminent decisions, scarce resources, and insufficient data, policymakers rely on experts to estimate model parameters and their associated uncertainties. Different elicitation and aggregation methods can vary substantially in their efficacy and robustness. While it is generally agreed that biases in expert judgments can be mitigated using structured elicitations involving groups rather than individuals, there is still some disagreement about how to best elicit and aggregate judgments. This mostly concerns the merits of using performance‐based weighting schemes to combine judgments of different individuals (rather than assigning equal weights to individual experts), and the way that interaction between experts should be handled. This article aims to contribute to, and complement, the ongoing discussion on these topics

Protecting biodiversity and economic returns in resource rich tropical forests

In pursuit of socioeconomic development, many countries are expanding oil and mineral extraction into tropical forests. These activities seed access to remote, biologically rich areas, thereby endangering global biodiversity. Here we demonstrate that conservation solutions that effectively balance the protection of biodiversity and economic revenues are possible in biologically valuable regions. Using spatial data on oil profits and predicted species and ecosystem extents, we optimise the protection of 741 terrestrial species and 20 ecosystems of the Ecuadorian Amazon, across a range of opportunity costs (i.e. sacrifices of extractive profit). For such an optimisation, giving up 5% of a year's oil profits (US$221 million) allows for a protected area network that retains of an average of 65$ 1.7 billion), and uses only marginally less land, to achieve equivalent levels of ecological protection. Applying spatial statistics to remotely sensed, historic deforestation data, we further focus the optimisation to areas most threatened by imminent forest loss. We identify Emergency Conservation Targets: areas that are essential to a cost‐effective conservation reserve network and at imminent risk of destruction, thus requiring urgent and effective protection. Governments should employ the methods presented here when considering extractive led development options, to responsibly manage the associated ecological‐economic trade‐offs and protect natural capital

Facilitating the transition to sustainable green chemistry

Sustainable green chemistry depends on technically feasible, cost-effective and socially acceptable decisions by regulators, industry and the wider community. The discipline needs to embrace a new suite of tools and train proponents in their use. We propose a set of tools that will bridge the gap between technical feasibility and efficiency on one hand, and social preferences and values on the other. We argue that they are indispensable in the next generation of regulators and chemistry industry proponents

Robust decision-making under severe uncertainty for conservation management

In-conservation biology it is necessary to make management decisions for endangered and threatened species under severe uncertainty. Failure to acknowledge and treat uncertainty can lead to poor decisions. To illustrate the importance of considering uncertainty, we reanalyze a decision problem for the Sumatran rhino, Dicerorhinus sumatrensis, using information-gap theory to propagate uncertainties and to rank management options. Rather than requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset, information-gap theory addresses the question of how much uncertainty can be tolerated before our decision would change. It assesses the robustness of decisions in the face of severe uncertainty. We show that different management decisions may result when uncertainty in utilities and probabilities are considered in decision-making problems. We highlight the importance of a full assessment of uncertainty in conservation management decisions to avoid, as much as possible, undesirable outcomes

Change in CD3 positive T-cell expression in psoriatic arthritis synovium correlates with change in DAS28 and magnetic resonance imaging synovitis scores following initiation of biologic therapy - a single centre, open-label study

With the development of increasing numbers of potential therapeutic agents in inflammatory disease comes the need for effective biomarkers to help screen for drug efficacy and optimal dosing regimens early in the clinical trial process. This need has been recognized by the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) group, which has established guidelines for biomarker validation. To seek a candidate synovial biomarker of treatment response in psoriatic arthritis (PsA), we determined whether changes in immunohistochemical markers of synovial inflammation correlate with changes in disease activity scores assessing 28 joints (ΔDAS28) or magnetic resonance imaging synovitis scores (ΔMRI) in patients with PsA treated with a biologic agent. Twenty-five consecutive patients with PsA underwent arthroscopic synovial biopsies and MRI scans of an inflamed knee joint at baseline and 12 weeks after starting treatment with either anakinra (first 10 patients) or etanercept (subsequent 15 patients) in two sequential studies of identical design. DAS28 scores were measured at both time points. Immunohistochemical staining for CD3, CD68 and Factor VIII (FVIII) was performed on synovial samples and scored by digital image analysis (DIA). MRI scans performed at baseline and at 12 weeks were scored for synovitis semi-quantitatively. The ΔDAS28 of the European League Against Rheumatism good response definition (>1.2) was chosen to divide patients into responder and non-responder groups. Differences between groups (Mann Whitney U test) and correlations between ΔDAS28 with change in immunohistochemical and MRI synovitis scores (Spearman's rho test) were calculated. Paired synovial samples and MRI scans were available for 21 patients (8 anakinra, 13 etanercept) and 23 patients (8 anakinra, 15 etanercept) respectively. Change in CD3 (ΔCD3) and CD68 expression in the synovial sublining layer (ΔCD68sl) was significantly greater in the disease responders compared to non-responders following treatment (P = 0.005 and 0.013 respectively). ΔCD3, but not ΔCD68 or ΔFVIII, correlated with both ΔDAS28 (r = 0.49, P = 0.025) and ΔMRI (r = 0.58, P = 0.009). The correlation of ΔCD3 with ΔDAS28 and ΔMRI following biologic treatment in this cohort contributes to the validation of ΔCD3 as a synovial biomarker of disease response in PsA, and supports the further evaluation of ΔCD3 for predictive properties of future clinical outcome

Design and performance of the first IceAct demonstrator at the South Pole

In this paper we describe the first results of IceAct, a compact imaging air-Cherenkov telescope operating in coincidence with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory (IceCube) at the geographic South Pole. An array of IceAct telescopes (referred to as the IceAct project) is under consideration as part of the IceCube-Gen2 extension to IceCube. Surface detectors in general will be a powerful tool in IceCube-Gen2 for distinguishing astrophysical neutrinos from the dominant backgrounds of cosmic-ray induced atmospheric muons and neutrinos: the IceTop array is already in place as part of IceCube, but has a high energy threshold. Although the duty cycle will be lower for the IceAct telescopes than the present IceTop tanks, the IceAct telescopes may prove to be more effective at lowering the detection threshold for air showers. Additionally, small imaging air-Cherenkov telescopes in combination with IceTop, the deep IceCube detector or other future detector systems might improve measurements of the composition of the cosmic ray energy spectrum. In this paper we present measurements of a first 7-pixel imaging air Cherenkov telescope demonstrator, proving the capability of this technology to measure air showers at the South Pole in coincidence with IceTop and the deep IceCube detector

Neutrinos below 100 TeV from the southern sky employing refined veto techniques to IceCube data

Many Galactic sources of gamma rays, such as supernova remnants, are expected to produce neutrinos with a typical energy cutoff well below 100 TeV. For the IceCube Neutrino Observatory located at the South Pole, the southern sky, containing the inner part of the Galactic plane and the Galactic Center, is a particularly challenging region at these energies, because of the large background of atmospheric muons. In this paper, we present recent advancements in data selection strategies for track-like muon neutrino events with energies below 100 TeV from the southern sky. The strategies utilize the outer detector regions as veto and features of the signal pattern to reduce the background of atmospheric muons to a level which, for the first time, allows IceCube searching for point-like sources of neutrinos in the southern sky at energies between 100 GeV and several TeV in the muon neutrino charged current channel. No significant clustering of neutrinos above background expectation was observed in four years of data recorded with the completed IceCube detector. Upper limits on the neutrino flux for a number of spectral hypotheses are reported for a list of astrophysical objects in the southern hemisphere

Combined sensitivity to the neutrino mass ordering with JUNO, the IceCube Upgrade, and PINGU

The ordering of the neutrino mass eigenstates is one of the fundamental open questions in neutrino physics. While current-generation neutrino oscillation experiments are able to produce moderate indications on this ordering, upcoming experiments of the next generation aim to provide conclusive evidence. In this paper we study the combined performance of the two future multi-purpose neutrino oscillation experiments JUNO and the IceCube Upgrade, which employ two very distinct and complementary routes toward the neutrino mass ordering. The approach pursued by the 20 kt medium-baseline reactor neutrino experiment JUNO consists of a careful investigation of the energy spectrum of oscillated νe produced by ten nuclear reactor cores. The IceCube Upgrade, on the other hand, which consists of seven additional densely instrumented strings deployed in the center of IceCube DeepCore, will observe large numbers of atmospheric neutrinos that have undergone oscillations affected by Earth matter. In a joint fit with both approaches, tension occurs between their preferred mass-squared differences Δm312=m32-m12 within the wrong mass ordering. In the case of JUNO and the IceCube Upgrade, this allows to exclude the wrong ordering at >5σ on a timescale of 3-7 years - even under circumstances that are unfavorable to the experiments' individual sensitivities. For PINGU, a 26-string detector array designed as a potential low-energy extension to IceCube, the inverted ordering could be excluded within 1.5 years (3 years for the normal ordering) in a joint analysis