Current Demographics Suggest Future Energy Supplies Will Be Inadequate to Slow Human Population Growth

Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9–10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections

Serogrouping and sulphonamide sensitivity of Neisseria meningitidis isolates from the south-western Cape

CITATION: Donald, P.R. et al. 1989. Serogrouping and sulphonamide sensitivity of Neisseria meningitidis isolates from the south-western Cape. S Afr Med J, 76:453.The original publication is available at http://www.samj.org.zaNeisseria meningitidis infections were first reported from the south-western Cape Province in 1883. Since then, against a backdrop of a relatively low incidence with winter exacerbation, epidemic periods have occurred at 10 - IS-year intervals. During the 1978 - 1979 epidemic more than 95% of isolates at Tygerberg Hospital were of serogroup B and only 5% were resistant to sulphonamides. Seventy-seven per cent of patients notified as suffering from meningococcal infections were under 4 years of age.3 In this report we briefly describe the pattern of serogrouping and sulphonamide resistance of N. meningitidis for the period 1980 - 1987.Publisher’s versio

The influence of pregnancy on the pharmacokinetic properties of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT): a systematic review

Pregnancy has been reported to alter the pharmacokinetic properties of anti-malarial drugs, including the different components of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). However, small sample sizes make it difficult to draw strong conclusions based on individual pharmacokinetic studies. The aim of this review is to summarize the evidence of the influence of pregnancy on the pharmacokinetic properties of different artemisinin-based combinations. A PROSPERO-registered systematic review to identify clinical trials that investigated the influence of pregnancy on the pharmacokinetic properties of different forms of ACT was conducted, following PRISMA guidelines. Without language restrictions, Medline/PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, LILACS, Biosis Previews and the African Index Medicus were searched for studies published up to November 2015. The following components of ACT that are currently recommend by the World Health Organization as first-line treatment of malaria in pregnancy were reviewed: artemisinin, artesunate, dihydroartemisinin, lumefantrine, amodiaquine, mefloquine, sulfadoxine, pyrimethamine, piperaquine, atovaquone and proguanil. The literature search identified 121 reports, 27 original studies were included. 829 pregnant women were included in the analysis. Comparison of the available studies showed lower maximum concentrations (Cmax) and exposure (AUC) of dihydroartemisinin, the active metabolite of all artemisinin derivatives, after oral administration of artemether, artesunate and dihydroartemisinin in pregnant women. Low day 7 concentrations were commonly seen in lumefantrine studies, indicating a low exposure and possibly reduced efficacy. The influence of pregnancy on amodiaquine and piperaquine seemed not to be clinically relevant. Sulfadoxine plasma concentration was significantly reduced and clearance rates were higher in pregnancy, while pyrimethamine and mefloquine need more research as no general conclusion can be drawn based on the available evidence. For atovaquone, the available data showed a lower maximum concentration and exposure. Finally, the maximum concentration of cycloguanil, the active metabolite of proguanil, was significantly lower, possibly compromising the efficacy. These findings suggest that reassessment of the dose of the artemisinin derivate and some components of ACT are necessary to ensure the highest possible efficacy of malaria treatment in pregnant women. However, for most components of ACT, data were insufficient and extensive research with larger sample sizes will be necessary to identify the exact influences of pregnancy on the pharmacokinetic properties of different artemisinin-based combinations. In addition, different clinical studies used diverse study designs with various reported relevant outcomes. Future pharmacokinetic studies could benefit from more uniform designs, in order to increase quality, robustness and effectiveness. CRD42015023756 (PROSPERO

Pattern Forming Dynamical Instabilities of Bose-Einstein Condensates: A Short Review

In this short topical review, we revisit a number of works on the pattern-forming dynamical instabilities of Bose-Einstein condensates in one- and two-dimensional settings. In particular, we illustrate the trapping conditions that allow the reduction of the three-dimensional, mean field description of the condensates (through the Gross-Pitaevskii equation) to such lower dimensional settings, as well as to lattice settings. We then go on to study the modulational instability in one dimension and the snaking/transverse instability in two dimensions as typical examples of long-wavelength perturbations that can destabilize the condensates and lead to the formation of patterns of coherent structures in them. Trains of solitons in one-dimension and vortex arrays in two-dimensions are prototypical examples of the resulting nonlinear waveforms, upon which we briefly touch at the end of this review.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figures, publishe