Devlet Ic Borclanma Senetleri Icin Getiri Egrisi Tahmini

Piyasa katilimcilarinin faiz beklentilerini yansitan getiri egrisinin tahmini mali analizin temel taslarindandir. Bu makalede getiri egrilerinin temel ozelliklerini tanitip, bilgimiz dahilinde ilk defa, Turkiye için uzun vadeli sabit kuponlu bonolarin da tahmine dahil edildigi yuksek frekansta getiri egrisi tahminleri sunuyoruz. Gunluk olarak tahmin edilen bu getiri egrileri piyasa katilimcilarinin makroekonomik gelismelere tepkilerini olcmek için uygun araclardir. Bu makalede getiri egrilerinden elde edilen sabit vadeli faizlerin para politikasi, enflasyon verisi açiklamasi, stopaj oranlarinin degismesi gibi olaylara verdikleri tepkiler vaka calismasi ornekleri olarak sunulmustur.

The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design

Civil war in Syria, which started in March 2011, has led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Overall, unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups -- i.e., females, younger workers, and less-educated workers|have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives' labor market outcomes

Turkiye’de Kamu Borc Stokunun Yapisi : Orijinal Gunah Gostergeleri ve Risk-Dahil Kamu Borc Yuku

Turkiye’de, borc stokunun yapisi incelendiginde, vadesinin kisa; degisken faizli, doviz cinsi/ dovize-endeksli senetlerin stok icerisindeki payinin ise yuksek oldugu gorulmektedir. Bu yapi, faiz orani ve doviz kuru oynakliklarina karsi borc servisi/ borc stokunu riskli hale getirmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu tur bir yapidaki borc stokunun riskleri icerecek sekilde hesaplanmasi anlamli olmakta ve kamunun ustlendigi olasi riskin izlenmesine imkan tanimaktadir. Bu calismada, faiz orani ve doviz kurundaki oynakligin borc stokunun gelisimine dahil edilmesi suretiyle, ulke riskliliginin degerlendirilmesinde kullanilabilecek yeni bir gosterge olusturulmasi amaclanmistir. Bu cercevede, risk unsurlarini iceren bir gosterge hesaplamak için VaR (Value-at-Risk) metodolojisinden faydalanilmis, tarihsel simulasyon yontemi kullanilarak borc yukunun (Borc Stoku /GSYIH) yuzde 95 guven araliginda alabilecegi maksimum deger hesaplanmistir. Soz konusu maksimum deger, risk-dahil borc yuku olarak tanimlanmistir. Farkli tarihsel zaman kesitleri baz alinarak olusturulan risk-dahil borc yuku gostergelerinin zaman icindeki gelisimi, borc stokunun yapisindaki degisim ve secilen zaman kesitinde, faiz orani ve doviz kurunun oynakliginin gelisimini yansitmaktadir. Zaman kesitinin uzunlugundan bagimsiz olarak, 2002 yilindan itibaren farkli donemlerde, risk-dahil borc yuku azalma egilimine girmekle birlikte, 2005 yili birinci ceyregi itibariyla 2001 krizi öncesine gore yuksek seviyede bulunmaktadir. Risk-dahil borc stokunun kriz oncesi seviyesine donememesi, 2001 krizi sonrasinda yasanan seviye artisi ve yapisal degisimi yansitmaktadir.Kamu borc yuku, Borc stokunun yapisi, Riske maruz deger (Value-at-Risk)

The importance of occupations in the Turkish labor market: job and wage polarization

Recent literature has identified three trends in the labor markets of the industrialized countries: (i) employment share of services sector has increased, (ii) employment share in low and high skilled occupations has increased (job polarization), (iii) and similarly wages in the low and high skilled occupations have increased relative to middling jobs (wage polarization). In this paper, we investigate the existence of such findings in the Turkish labor market for the 2004-2010 period using Labor Force Survey data. We found evidence for wage and job polarization. Next, we show that occupations have significant contribution in explaining the change in wage distribution. In the literature, reasons behind these patterns are investigated using data on task composition of occupations. However, no such data is available for Turkey. Thus, to conduct research in identifying the sources of recent trends in the labour market, compiling data on occupation-task decomposition is important

Kuresel Finansal Kriz Doneminde Para Politikasi Kurulu Kararlarinin Piyasa Getirileri Uzerindeki Etkisi

Merkez Bankasi, kuresel finansal krizin etkilerinin hissedilmeye baslandigi 2008 yili ucuncu ceyreginden itibaren Banka bunyesindeki Bankalararasi Para Piyasasi ve Istanbul Menkul Kiymetler Borsasi (IMKB) Repo–Ters Repo Pazari’nda uygulanmakta olan kisa vadeli faizlerde bir yil icinde 1025 baz puan indirim gerceklestirmistir. Bu calismada, soz konusu donemde, 1-2 yil vadeli devlet ic borclanma senedi getirilerinin, faiz kararlarindaki surpriz bilesene verdikleri tepkiler incelenmektedir. Politika faizindeki indirimlerin devlet ic borclanma senedi getirileri uzerinde etkili oldugu, dolayisiyla kriz doneminde, parasal aktarim mekanizmasi faiz kanalinda merkez bankasi faizlerinden piyasa getirilerine olan geciskenligin etkin oldugu gozlenmistir.

The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design

Abstract Civil conflict in Syria, started in March 2011, led to a massive wave of forced immigration from Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the MENA region and most of Europe. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. Formal employment increased slightly potentially due to increased social services in the region. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Formal employment and unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups, i.e., women, younger workers, and less-educated workers, have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives’ labor market outcomes. Overall, the impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might also be limited