Smoking, dementia and cognitive decline in the elderly, a systematic review.

Background. Nicotine may aid reaction time, learning and memory, but smoking increases cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to increased risk of dementia. A previous meta-analysis found that current smokers were at higher risk of subsequent dementia, Alzheimers disease, vascular dementia and cognitive decline. Methods. In order to update and examine this further a systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out using different search and inclusion criteria, database selection and more recent publications. Both reviews were restricted to those aged 65 and over. Results. The review reported here found a significantly increased risk of Alzheimers disease with current smoking and a likely but not significantly increased risk of vascular dementia, dementia unspecified and cognitive decline. Neither review found clear relationships with former smoking. Conclusion. Current smoking increases risk of Alzheimers disease and may increase risk of other dementias. This reinforces need for smoking cessation, particularly aged 65 and over. Nicotine alone needs further investigation. © 2008 Peters et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Political Leadership as Statecraft? Aligning Theory with Praxis in Conversation with British Party Leaders

How should prime ministerial and party leadership be understood and assessed? One leading approach posits that we should assess them in terms of whether they achieve statecraft, that is, winning and maintain office in government. This article supplements and then assesses that theory by drawing from Pawson and Tilley’s (1997) concept of the realistic interview, in which practitioners are deployed as co-researchers to assess and revise theory. Unprecedented interviews with British party leaders were therefore undertaken. The article provides new empirical support for the framework because many of the key generative mechanisms identified within the neo-statecraft model were present in an analysis of the interviews. The interviews also allowed the limitations of the model to be demarcated. Statecraft focusses purely on cunning leadership where the aim is to maximise power and influence. This differs from leadership by conscious where the aim is to achieve normative goals

Epistemic Uncertainty-Weighted Loss for Visual Bias Mitigation

Deep neural networks are highly susceptible to learning biases in visual data. While various methods have been proposed to mitigate such bias, the majority require explicit knowledge of the biases present in the training data in order to mitigate. We argue the relevance of exploring methods which are completely ignorant of the presence of any bias, but are capable of identifying and mitigating them. Furthermore, we propose using Bayesian neural networks with an epistemic uncertainty-weighted loss function to dynamically identify potential bias in individual training samples and to weight them during training. We find a positive correlation between samples subject to bias and higher epistemic uncertainties. Finally, we show the method has potential to mitigate visual bias on a bias benchmark dataset and on a real-world face detection problem, and we consider the merits and weaknesses of our approach.Comment: To be published in 2022 IEEE CVPR Workshop on Fair, Data Efficient and Trusted Computer Visio

Bayesian uncertainty-weighted loss for improved generalisability on polyp segmentation task

While several previous studies have devised methods for segmentation of polyps, most of these methods are not rigorously assessed on multi-center datasets. Variability due to appearance of polyps from one center to another, difference in endoscopic instrument grades, and acquisition quality result in methods with good performance on in-distribution test data, and poor performance on out-of-distribution or underrepresented samples. Unfair models have serious implications and pose a critical challenge to clinical applications. We adapt an implicit bias mitigation method which leverages Bayesian epistemic uncertainties during training to encourage the model to focus on underrepresented sample regions. We demonstrate the potential of this approach to improve generalisability without sacrificing state-of-the-art performance on a challenging multi-center polyp segmentation dataset (PolypGen) with different centers and image modalities.Comment: To be presented at the Fairness of AI in Medical Imaging (FAIMI) MICCAI 2023 Workshop and published in volumes of the Springer Lecture Notes Computer Science (LNCS) serie

First Extended Catalogue of Galactic bubble infrared fluxes from WISE and Herschel surveys

In this paper, we present the first extended catalogue of far-infrared fluxes of Galactic bubbles. Fluxes were estimated for 1814 bubbles, defined here as the ‘golden sample’, and were selected from the Milky Way Project First Data Release (Simpson et al.) The golden sample was comprised of bubbles identified within the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) dataset (using 12- and 22-μm images) and Herschel data (using 70-, 160-, 250-, 350- and 500-μm wavelength images). Flux estimation was achieved initially via classical aperture photometry and then by an alternative image analysis algorithm that used active contours. The accuracy of the two methods was tested by comparing the estimated fluxes for a sample of bubbles, made up of 126 H ii regions and 43 planetary nebulae, which were identified by Anderson et al. The results of this paper demonstrate that a good agreement between the two was found. This is by far the largest and most homogeneous catalogue of infrared fluxes measured for Galactic bubbles and it is a step towards the fully automated analysis of astronomical datasets

Understanding the power of the prime minister : structure and agency in models of prime ministerial power

Understanding the power of the prime minister is important because of the centrality of the prime minister within the core executive of British government, but existing models of prime ministerial power are unsatisfactory for various reasons. This article makes an original contribution by providing an overview and critique of the dominant models of prime ministerial power, highlighting their largely positivist bent and the related problem of the prevalence of overly parsimonious conceptions of the structural contexts prime ministers face. The central argument the paper makes is that much of the existing literature on prime ministerial power is premised on flawed understandings of the relationship between structure and agency, that this leads to misunderstandings of the real scope of prime ministerial agency, as well as its determinants, and that this can be rectified by adopting a strategic-relational view of structure and agency

Modelling Cognitive Decline in the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial [HYVET] and Proposed Risk Tables for Population Use

Although, on average, cognition declines with age, cognition in older adults is a dynamic process. Hypertension is associated with greater decline in cognition with age, but whether treatment of hypertension affects this is uncertain. Here, we modelled dynamics of cognition in relation to the treatment of hypertension, to see if treatment effects might better be discerned by a model that included baseline measures of cognition and consequent mortalityThis is a secondary analysis of the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial (HYVET), a double blind, placebo controlled trial of indapamide, with or without perindopril, in people aged 80+ years at enrollment. Cognitive states were defined in relation to errors on the Mini-Mental State Examination, with more errors signifying worse cognition. Change in cognitive state was evaluated using a dynamic model of cognitive transition. In the model, the probabilities of transitions between cognitive states is represented by a Poisson distribution, with the Poisson mean dependent on the baseline cognitive state. The dynamic model of cognitive transition was good (R(2) = 0.74) both for those on placebo and (0.86) for those on active treatment. The probability of maintaining cognitive function, based on baseline function, was slightly higher in the actively treated group (e.g., for those with the fewest baseline errors, the chance of staying in that state was 63% for those on treatment, compared with 60% for those on placebo). Outcomes at two and four years could be predicted based on the initial state and treatment.A dynamic model of cognition that allows all outcomes (cognitive worsening, stability improvement or death) to be categorized simultaneously detected small but consistent differences between treatment and control groups (in favour of treatment) amongst very elderly people treated for hypertension. The model showed good fit, and suggests that most change in cognition in very elderly people is small, and depends on their baseline state and on treatment. Additional work is needed to understand whether this modelling approach is well suited to the valuation of small effects, especially in the face of mortality differences between treatment groups.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0012281

Democratic cultural policy : democratic forms and policy consequences

The forms that are adopted to give practical meaning to democracy are assessed to identify what their implications are for the production of public policies in general and cultural policies in particular. A comparison of direct, representative, democratic elitist and deliberative versions of democracy identifies clear differences between them in terms of policy form and democratic practice. Further elaboration of these differences and their consequences are identified as areas for further research

Immediate and late benefits of treating very elderly people with hypertension: results from active treatment extension to Hypertension in the Very Elderly randomised controlled trial

Objective To assess if very elderly people with hypertension obtain early benefit from antihypertensive treatment. Design One year open label active treatment extension of randomised controlled trial (Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial (HYVET)). Setting Hospital and general practice based centres mainly in eastern and western Europe, China, and Tunisia. Participants People on double blind treatment at the end of HYVET were eligible to enter the extension. Interventions Participants on active blood pressure lowering treatment continued taking active drug; those on placebo were given active blood pressure lowering treatment. The treatment regimen was as used in the main trial-indapamide SR 1.5 mg (plus perindopril 2-4 mg if required)-with the same target blood pressure of less than 150/80 mm Hg. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was all stroke; other outcomes included total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events. Results Of 1882 people eligible for entry to the extension, 1712 (91%) agreed to participate. During the extension period, 1682 patient years were accrued. By six months, the difference in blood pressure between the two groups was 1.2/0.7 mm Hg. Comparing people previously treated with active drug and those previously on placebo, no significant differences were seen for stroke (n=13; hazard ratio 1.92, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 6.22) or cardiovascular events (n=25; 0.78, 0.36 to 1.72). Differences were seen for total mortality (47 deaths; hazard ratio 0.48, 0.26 to 0.87; P=0.02) and cardiovascular mortality (11 deaths; 0.19, 0.04 to 0.87; P=0.03). Conclusion Very elderly patients with hypertension may gain immediate benefit from treatment. Sustained differences in reductions of total mortality and cardiovascular mortality reinforce the benefits and support the need for early and long term treatment

Forty years studying British politics : the decline of Anglo-America

The still present belief some 40 years ago that British politics was both exceptional and superior has been replaced by more theoretically sophisticated analyses based on a wider and more rigorously deployed range of research techniques, although historical analysis appropriately remains important. The American influence on the study of British politics has declined, but the European Union dimension has not been fully integrated. The study of interest groups has been in some respects a fading paradigm, but important questions related to democratic health have still to be addressed. Public administration has been supplanted by public policy, but economic policy remains under-studied. A key challenge for the future is the study of the management of expectations