Models and numbers: Representing the world or imposing order?

We argue for a foundational epistemic claim and a hypothesis about the production and uses of mathematical epidemiological models, exploring the consequences for our political and socio-economic lives. First, in order to make the best use of scientific models, we need to understand why models are not truly representational of our world, but are already pitched towards various uses. Second, we need to understand the implicit power relations in numbers and models in public policy, and, thus, the implications for good governance if numbers and models are used as the exclusive drivers of decision making.acceptedVersio

Terremotia : folk knowledge and the understanding of risk

Terremotia is a parliamentary democracy with market economy. It is classified as a high-income country with upper middle to high rankings in indicators such as quality of life, media freedom, education and literacy. Education is compulsory for children aged 6 to 16. Terremotia’s economy relies mainly on agriculture (forestry, fishing, dairy, cattle and wine) and mining, with tourism rapidly gaining importance. It has a population of 12 million and its largest city is the commercial centre, Mercator de Terremotia, with the population of 2.5 million, followed by the capital, Villa de Terremotia with a population of 1.8 million

INGSA case study : Panderia: when pandemic leads to panic

A new highly contagious viral disease, Forest Respiratory Encephalitis (FRE), is spreading in the hypothetical country of “Panderia.” Confusion and rumour make it harder for health care workers and government officials to combat the outbreak. Efforts to tackle FRE also have to contend with the power of social media. Claims of cures and panic-inducing conspiracy theories follow sudden outbreaks. You are chief scientific advisor of the neighbouring country, “Emergeria,” where a group of 12 refugees from Panderia have entered the country illegally. What are the considerations you must take into account in light of the background provided by the International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA)

INGSA case study - Carboneria : bio-char production, carbon sequestration, local farmers and multinational investors

The hypothetical country of “Carbonaria” is considering the promotion of bio-char in its approach to climate change. The science advisor needs to consider the scenario from stakeholder perspectives in light of background provided by the International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA). A plantation solution is supported by international investors; they see enormous potential of bio-char in the carbon offsets market. The science advisor must advise on the relative merits of bio-char and the alternative development of a new cultivar, “flavonella” along with impacts on current land-use practices and the environment. The government needs to resolve conflicting proposals for uses of land

Towards Post-Pandemic Sustainable and Ethical Food Systems

The current global COVID-19 pandemic has led to a deep and multidimensional crisis across all sectors of society. As countries contemplate their mobility and social-distancing policy restrictions, we have a unique opportunity to re-imagine the deliberative frameworks and value priorities in our food systems. Pre-pandemic food systems at global, national, regional and local scales already needed revision to chart a common vision for sustainable and ethical food futures. Re-orientation is also needed by the relevant sciences, traditionally siloed in their disciplines and without adequate attention paid to how the food system problem is variously framed by diverse stakeholders according to their values. From the transdisciplinary perspective of food ethics, we argue that a post-pandemic scheme focused on bottom-up, regional, cross-sectoral and non-partisan deliberation may provide the re-orientation and benchmarks needed for not only more sustainable, but also more ethical food futures.publishedVersio

GDNA qPCR is statistically more reliable than mRNA analysis in detecting leukemic cells to monitor CML

Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) is a stem cell cancer that arises when t(9;22) translocation occurs in a hematopoietic stem cells. This event results in the expression of the BCR-ABL1 fusion gene, which codes for a constitutively active tyrosine kinase that is responsible for the transformation of a HSC into a CML stem cell, which then gives rise to a clonal myeloproliferative disease. The introduction of Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors (TKIs) has revolutionized the management of the disease. However, these drugs do not seem to be able to eradicate the malignancy. Indeed, discontinuation trials (STIM; TWISER; DADI) for those patients who achieved a profound molecular response showed 50% relapsing within 12 months. We performed a comparative analysis on 15 CML patients and one B-ALL patient, between the standard quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and our genomic DNA patient-specific quantitative PCR assay (gDNA qPCR). Here we demonstrate that gDNA qPCR is better than standard qRT-PCR in disease monitoring after an average follow-up period of 200 days. Specifically, we statistically demonstrated that DNA negativity is more reliable than RNA negativity in indicating when TKIs therapy can be safely stopped

THE IMPROVED DIASORIN Q-LAMP ASSAY FOR THE ACCURATE AND ULTRA-FAST DETECTION OF COMMON AND RARE ISOFORMS OF THE BCR-ABL1 TRANSLOCATION

The molecular detection of BCR-ABL1 transcripts by RT-PCR is mandatory for the diagnosis of Ph+ Leukemias at onset. Recently a faster and reliable assay based on the Q-LAMP technology developed by DiaSorin has entered in laboratory routine. This assay detects in one hour BCR-ABL1 p190 (e1a2) and p210 (e13a2, e14a2) isoforms. In this study, we evaluated the new improved Q-LAMP formulation designed to detect also less frequent isoforms of the BCR-ABL1 transcripts p190 and p210 (e1a3, e13a3, e14a3). In addition, clinical studies demonstrated that the assay is capable of detecting also the rare isoform p230 (e19a2, e19a3). Methods: The new Q-LAMP technology consists in a multiplex assay for the differential detection of p190 and p210 transcripts and the amplification of the GUSB endogenous RNA. The assay has been tested on 185 clinical samples including 95 p210 positive (57 e13a2 and 28 e14a2, 8 e13a3 and 2 e14a3), 38 p190 positive (33 e1a2 and 5 e1a3) and 50 BCR-ABL1 negative samples. Additional 2 p230 rare isoforms were also included in this study. All samples were previously tested by RT-PCR, considered as the reference method. Results: The new BCR-ABL Q-LAMP assay showed 100% concordance with the RT-PCR, with an expected delayed amplification time for rare isoforms respect to the common ones. The average amplification time of p210 common isoforms were 22,24 and 25,03 min compared to the p210 and p190 rare isoforms that showed 26,54 and 36,84 min, respectively. The 2 p230 (e19a2) rare isoforms were also tested and resulted valid although, due to the very long transcript, they showed a very high average amplification time (50 and 48 min). Moreover, we observed an interesting discrimination between the e13a2 and the e14a2 isoforms in terms of amplification times (20,21 versus 26,36 min) likely associated to the different length of the two transcripts, with low coefficients of variability (0,15 and 0,11 respectively). Conclusions: The enhanced BCR-ABL Q-LAMP assay well proved to detect both common and uncommon isoforms of the BCR-ABL1 translocation. This improved performances, combined with the speed and the close tube format, allow laboratories to optimize their workflow and represent a reliable solution for molecular diagnosis of Philadelphia Positive Leukemias