Scale and the origins of structural change

Structural change involves a broad set of trends: (i) sectoral reallocations, (ii) rich movements of productive activities between home and market, and (iii) an increase in the scale of productive units. After extending these facts, we develop a model to explain them within a unified framework. The crucial distinction between manufacturing, services, and home production is the scale of the productive unit. Scale technologies give rise to industrialization and the marketization of previously home produced activities. The rise of mass consumption leads to an expansion of manufacturing, but a reversal of the marketization process for service industries. Finally, the later growth in the scale of services leads to a decline in industry and a rise in services.Service industries

Aggregate Implications of a Credit Crunch

We take an off-the-shelf model with financial frictions and heterogeneity, and study the mapping from a credit crunch, modeled as a shock to collateral constraints, to simple aggregate wedges. We study three variants of this model that only differ in the form of underlying heterogeneity. We find that in all three model variants a credit crunch shows up as a different wedge: efficiency, investment, and labor wedges. Furthermore, all three model variants have an undistorted Euler equation for the aggregate of firm owners. These results highlight the limitations of using representative agent models to identify sources of business cycle fluctuations.

Optimal Maturity of Government Debt with Incomplete Markets

In this paper we show how risk free bonds of different maturities can be used to replace state contingent debt in a general equilibrium dynamic optimal taxation problem. In particular, we show that if the state of the economy can only take a finite number N of values each period, then the government can support the complete markets Ramsey allocation issuing bonds of J> N different maturities. We also show that the optimal maturity structure does depend on teh relationship between the term strucutre of interest rates and goverenment expenditures. In the case that intreset rates are positively correlated with government expenditures in the Ramsey solution, then the government must hold short run assets and long term liabilites.

The Rise of the Service Economy

This paper analyzes the role of specialized high-skilled labor in the growth of the service sector as a share of the total economy. Empirically, we emphasize that the growth has been driven by the consumption of services. Rather than being driven by low-skill jobs, the importance of skill-intensive services has risen, and this has coincided with a period of rising relative wages and quantities of high-skilled labor. We develop a theory where demand shifts toward ever more skill-intensive output as income rises, and because skills are highly specialized this lowers the importance of home production relative to market services. The theory is also consistent with a rising level of skill and skill premium, a rising relative price of services that is linked to this skill premium, and rich product cycles between home and market, all of which are observed in the data.

Real effects of financial distress : the role of heterogeneity

What are the heterogeneous e_ects of _nancial shocks on _rms' behavior? This paper evaluates and answers this question from both an empirical and a theoretical perspective. Using micro data from Portugal during the sovereign debt crisis, starting in 2010, we document that highly leveraged _rms and _rms that had a larger share of short-term debt on their balance sheets contracted more in the aftermath of a _nancial shock. We use a standard model to analyze the conditions under which leverage and debt maturity determine the sensitivity of _rms' investment decisions to _nancial shocks. We show that the presence of long-term investment projects and frictions to the issuance of long-term debt are needed for the model to rationalize the empirical _ndings. We conclude that the di_erential responses of _rms to a _nancial shock do not provide unambiguous information to identify these shocks. Rather, we argue that this information should be use to test for the relevance of important model assumptions.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Productivity Growth and Capital Flows: The Dynamics of Reforms

Why doesn’t capital flow into fast-growing countries? In this paper, we provide a quantitative framework incorporating heterogeneous producers and underdeveloped domestic financial markets to study the joint dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) and capital flows. When an unexpected once-and-for-all reform eliminates non-financial distortions and liberalizes capital flows, the TFP of our model economy rises gradually and capital flows out of it. The rise in TFP reflects efficient reallocation of capital and talent, a process drawn out by frictions in domestic financial markets. The concurrent capital outflows are driven by the positive response of domestic saving to higher returns, and by the sluggish response of domestic investment to the higher TFP—the latter being another ramification of domestic financial frictions. We use our model to analyze the welfare consequences of opening up capital accounts. We find that the marginal welfare effect of capital account liberalization is negative for workers and positive for entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals.

Models of Idea Flows

This paper introduces several variations of the Eaton and Kortum (1999) model of technological change and characterizes their long run implications. Both exogenous and endogenous growth examples are studied.

Estimando las decisiones de escolarización en Argentina: efectos de fluctuaciones idiosincráticas y agregadas

El objetivo de este trabajo es poder identificar empíricamente un candidato para este mecanismo de transmisión usando datos de hogares en Argentina: las decisiones de deserción escolar originadas por restricciones al crédito. Una combinación de argumentos teóricos y empíricos nos centran en este candidato. Primero, la heterogeneidad en la acumulación de capital humano es una fuente importante de los diferenciales de ingresos entre los individuos. Segundo, las decisiones de deserción pueden tener altos costos de reversión, ya que estas decisiones solo pueden ser echas una vez por año. También debe considerarse que la participación en el mercado laboral genera acumulación de capital humano por un proceso de aprendizaje, por ende la depreciación del mismo puede deteriorar la formación de los individuos si retornan a la actividad escolar. Claramente existen varias razones para entender a las decisiones de deserción escolar como un shock permanente.Departamento de Economí

Skill-Biased Structural Change

Using a broad panel of advanced economies we document that increases in GDP per capita are associated with a systematic shift in the composition of value added to sectors that are intensive in high-skill labor, a process we label as skill-biased structural change. It follows that further development in these economies leads to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. We develop a quantitative two-sector model of this process as a laboratory to assess the sources of the rise of the skill premium in the US and a set of ten other advanced economies, over the period 1977 to 2005. For the US, we find that the sector-specific skill neutral component of technical change accounts for 18-24% of the overall increase of the skill premium due to technical change, and that the mechanism through which this component of technical change affects the skill premium is via skill biased structural change