Anticipating and Managing Future Trade-offs and Complementarities between Ecosystem Services

This paper shows how, with the aid of computer models developed in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to quantify and map how policy decisions are likely to affect multiple ecosystem services in future. In this way, potential trade-offs and complementarities between different ecosystem services can be identified, so that policies can be designed to avoid the worst trade-offs, and where possible, enhance multiple services. The paper brings together evidence from across the Rural Economy and Land Use Programme’s Sustainable Uplands project for the first time, with previously unpublished model outputs relating to runoff, agricultural suitability, biomass, heather cover, age, and utility for Red Grouse (Lagopus scotica), grass cover, and accompanying scenario narratives and video. Two contrasting scenarios, based on policies to extensify or intensify land management up to 2030, were developed through a combination of interviews and discussions during site visits with stakeholders, literature review, conceptual modeling, and process-based computer models, using the Dark Peak of the Peak District National Park in the UK as a case study. Where extensification leads to a significant reduction in managed burning and grazing or land abandonment, changes in vegetation type and structure could compromise a range of species that are important for conservation, while compromising provisioning services, amenity value, and increasing wildfire risk. However, where extensification leads to the restoration of peatlands damaged by former intensive management, there would be an increase in carbon sequestration and storage, with a number of cobenefits, which could counter the loss of habitats and species elsewhere in the landscape. In the second scenario, land use and management was significantly intensified to boost UK self-sufficiency in food. This would benefit certain provisioning services but would have negative consequences for carbon storage and water quality and would lead to a reduction in the abundance of certain species of conservation concern. The paper emphasizes the need for spatially explicit models that can track how ecosystem services might change over time, in response to policy or environmental drivers, and in response to the changing demands and preferences of society, which are far harder to anticipate. By developing such models in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to depict scenarios of real concern to those who need to use the research findings. By engaging these collaborators with the research findings through film, it was possible to discuss adaptive options to minimize trade-offs and enhance the provision of multiple ecosystem services under the very different future conditions depicted by each scenario. By preparing for as wide a range of futures as possible in this way, it may be possible for decision makers to act rapidly and effectively to protect and enhance the provision of ecosystem services in the face of unpredictable future change.Additional co-authors: Nanlin Jin, Brian J Irvine, Mike J Kirkby, William E Kunin, Christina Prell, Claire H Quinn, Bill Slee, Sigrid Stagl, Mette Termansen, Simon Thorp, and Fred Worral

10 lessons from grant proposals that led to the most significant and far-reaching impacts

Introduction In this blog, we analyse ‘pathways to impact’ in grant applications that led to the top scoring impact case studies in the latest UK assessment of research excellence and impact (REF2014). It is easy to find the top scoring case studies, and straight-forward enough to find good examples of pathways to impact, but this is the first time that pathways have been paired with high-scoring case studies. To do this, we contacted those responsible for the majority of impact case studies we could identify that scored the highest grade (4*) in REF2014, and asked if they would allow us to share their pathways to impact. In our analysis, we have identified elements that pathways to winning impact case studies have in common, from a wide range of disciplinary areas. In doing so, we provide suggestions that complement official guidance on writing ‘pathways to impact’ and can help you develop a pathway to significant and far-reaching impacts.&nbsp

Assessment of the Accuracy of Ultrasound Compared to Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Ability to Detect Metastatic Breast Cancer to the Axilla

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is routinely used in the staging of invasive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasonography (US) compared to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the pre-operative assessment of metastatic disease to the axilla in breast cancer patients at our community hospital. We retrospectively reviewed a prospectively collected database of 277 patients seen at our breast center from 2009 to 2010. Patients with invasive breast cancer were then evaluated for axillary metastasis. Lymph nodes were sampled using fine needle aspiration (FNAB) or core biopsy. Histopathology of the sentinel lymph nodes (SLN) or results of the axillary dissection were compared to US or MRI results. A total of 228 patients had invasive breast cancer. In these patients, 122 lymph nodes were sampled. Pathology proven metastases to axillary lymph nodes were found in 76 cases. Accuracy and sensitivity were higher in US than MRI in detecting metastatic disease to the axilla (70.2%, 84.6%, p < 0.001 and 60.0%, 52.6%, p < 0.1, respectively). US was more accurate than MRI at detecting metastatic breast cancer in the axilla in our community hospital. Axillary US should be a routine part of assessment of breast cancer patients

Peatland conservation at the science–practice interface

Introduction The conservation and management of peatlands by practitioners is often assumed to work best when guided by science (e.g. Maltby 1997). However, there are also many excellent peatland management and restoration projects, which have built upon years of practical experience (sometimes through trial and error), undertaken by organisations involved in hands-on peatland conservation. Parry, Holden and Chapman (2014) provide many examples of techniques developed through common sense and ingenuity on the part of practitioners, often with little input from the science community. Often restoration projects have to make progress well before the science is fully understood. Significant investment is being poured into peatland management projects across the world (Parish et al. 2008), and it is important for those investing resources in peatland environments that there is some evaluation of the impacts of such investment. Evaluating the success of peatland management projects may involve the scientific community (e.g. taking measurements of carbon fluxes). In many instances, however, practitioners may involve less stringent measures with success measured by recording some simple visible changes to the landscape. The evaluation of success may indeed be an economic one (Kent 2000) based on cost-benefit analyses (Christie et al. 2011) of, for example, money spent on restoration that has been or will be saved elsewhere through, for instance, improved water quality entering water company treatment works. The observations for measuring peatland conservation success may depend on spatial and temporal scale, geographic settings and project targets, as well as available expertise and funding. There are therefore questions about how we measure success and how scientists, practitioners and policy makers can work closely together to deliver the best outcomes for peatland ecosystem services. Careful attention should be given to the mechanisms for science knowledge exchange between science and practical application so that practical experience and knowledge by those managing peatlands is transferred into the scientific understanding of peatlands. Scientists value the opinions and ideas of the restoration community and there have been recent attempts to move towards improved co-design of research and co-production of knowledge of science and practitioner communities in peatland restoration environments (Reed 2008; Reed et al. 2009). Taking an ecosystem services approach to peatland conservation means that scientists, practitioners and policy makers have to understand the wider interconnectedness of peatland processes that lead to the provision of goods and services to society.</p

Enumerating a continental-scale threat: How many feral cats are in Australia?

Feral cats (Felis catus) have devastated wildlife globally. In Australia, feral cats are implicated in most recent mammal extinctions and continue to threaten native species. Cat control is a high-profile priority for Australian policy, research and management. To develop the evidence-base to support this priority, we first review information on cat presence/absence on Australian islands and mainland cat-proof exclosures, finding that cats occur across >99.8% of Australia's land area. Next, we collate 91 site-based feral cat density estimates in Australia and examine the influence of environmental and geographic influences on density. We extrapolate from this analysis to estimate that the feral cat population in natural environments fluctuates between 1.4 million (95% confidence interval: 1.0–2.3 million) after continent-wide droughts, to 5.6 million (95% CI: 2.5–11 million) after extensive wet periods. We estimate another 0.7 million feral cats occur in Australia's highly modified environments (urban areas, rubbish dumps, intensive farms). Feral cat densities are higher on small islands than the mainland, but similar inside and outside conservation land. Mainland cats reach highest densities in arid/semi-arid areas after wet periods. Regional variation in cat densities corresponds closely with attrition rates for native mammal fauna. The overall population estimate for Australia's feral cats (in natural and highly modified environments), fluctuating between 2.1 and 6.3 million, is lower than previous estimates, and Australian feral cat densities are lower than reported for North America and Europe. Nevertheless, cats inflict severe impacts on Australian fauna, reflecting the sensitivity of Australia's native species to cats and reinforcing that policy, research and management to reduce their impacts is critical.Australian Research Council (BF); Australian Research Council LP100100033 (for HH); Australian Research Council LP100100033 (for CNJ); Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment (BF); A. Stewart (for PMcD); Parks Victoria's Research Partners Program, Department of Land, Water and Planning Victoria, J. Wright (for DN, ER); J. White, R. Cooke (for AR, DRS); South West Catchments Council (for JS)

Ecological factors influencing invasive predator survival and movement: insights from a continental-scale study of feral cats in Australia

Feral cats (Felis catus) pose a significant global threat to biodiversity, primarily through predation, disease and competition. A key gap in parameterizing models for improving management decisions for feral cat control relates to factors that drive feral cat survival and movement in the wild. Our study objective was to conduct the first continental-scale analysis of survival rates and displacement distances for feral cats. We collated data on 528 feral cats from telemetry studies in naturally-vegetated landscapes across Australia. Using Cox-proportional hazards models, we investigated the effects of sex, presence of larger predators (dingoes, Canis familiaris and introduced foxes, Vulpes vulpes), presence of introduced prey (rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus), body mass, landscape productivity and feral cat density on feral cat survival. We also analysed the effects of sex, body mass and landscape productivity on feral cat displacement using linear mixed model analysis. Feral cat survival was positively associated with presence of dingoes and increasing body mass, whereas there was no clear association between feral cat survival and sex, presence of rabbits, or cat density. Presence of foxes had a strong negative effect on feral cat survival, but the hazard ratio was associated with considerable uncertainty. Net displacement of male feral cats was nearly two times further than that of females, and the proportion of feral cats making long-distance movements was greater in landscapes with low productivity. Increasing body mass of feral cats was positively related to net displacement, with heavier cats moving further. Analysis of metadata from telemetry studies can provide valuable insights into wildlife survival rates and movement behaviour. Our findings will help inform the development of effective management strategies and improve feral cat management for biodiversity conservation