High impact activities in parks: best management practice and future research

Off-road driving, horseriding, rock climbing and similar activities can be lucrative for tour operators and important for local recreational groups, but contentious for management of national parks and protected areas, both because of safety and liability and because of potentially high environmental impacts. These include spreading weeds and pathogens, starting fires and crushing bird nests on beaches, amongst many others. In Australia as elsewhere, off-road vehicles and horses are allowed only in some places in some parks, and often only under permit. We have very little reliable scientific information to-date on just how serious these impacts may be, and on how well they might be managed through minimal-impact practices such as vehicle washdowns, stockfeed processing and seasonal closures. Such information can only be obtained through site specific ecological studies of the plants, animals and watercourses likely to be affected, differentiating tourism impacts from natural causes and fluctuations. This report examines management strategies for these activities worldwide and in Australia. Suggestions for best management practice and future research agendas are set

Five year prognosis in patients with angina identified in primary care : incident cohort study

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

On the accretion mode of the intermediate polar V1025 Centauri

The long white-dwarf spin periods in the magnetic cataclysmic variables EX Hya and V1025 Cen imply that if the systems possess accretion discs then they cannot be in equilibrium. It has been suggested that instead they are discless accretors in which the spin-up torques resulting from accretion are balanced by the ejection of part of the accretion flow back towards the secondary. We present phase-resolved spectroscopy of V1025 Cen aimed at deducing the nature of the accretion flow, and compare this with simulations of a discless accretor. We find that both the conventional disc-fed model and the discless-accretor model have strengths and weaknesses, and that further work is needed before we can decide which applies to V1025 Cen.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, To appear in MNRAS, includes low-res figures to reduce siz

Discriminating spin through quantum interference

Many of the proposed solutions to the hierarchy and naturalness problems postulate new `partner' fields to the standard model particles. Determining the spins of these new particles will be critical in distinguishing among the various possible SM extensions, yet proposed methods rely on the underlying models. We propose a new model-independent method for spin measurements which takes advantage of quantum interference among helicity states. We demonstrate that this method will be able to discriminate scalar particles from higher spin states at the ILC, and discuss application to higher spins and possible uses at the LHC.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figure

High-Energy Neutrino Signatures of Dark Matter Decaying into Leptons

Decaying dark matter has previously been proposed as a possible explanation for the excess high energy cosmic ray electrons and positrons seen by PAMELA and the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope (FGST). To accommodate these signals however, the decays must be predominantly leptonic, to muons or taus, and therefore produce neutrinos, potentially detectable with the IceCube neutrino observatory. We find that, with five years of data, IceCube (supplemented by DeepCore) will be able to significantly constrain the relevant parameter space of decaying dark matter, and may even be capable of discovering dark matter decaying in the halo of the Milky Way.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Local majority dynamics on preferential attachment graphs

Suppose in a graph $G$ vertices can be either red or blue. Let $k$ be odd. At each time step, each vertex $v$ in $G$ polls $k$ random neighbours and takes the majority colour. If it doesn't have $k$ neighbours, it simply polls all of them, or all less one if the degree of $v$ is even. We study this protocol on the preferential attachment model of Albert and Barab\'asi, which gives rise to a degree distribution that has roughly power-law $P(x) \sim \frac{1}{x^{3}}$, as well as generalisations which give exponents larger than $3$. The setting is as follows: Initially each vertex of $G$ is red independently with probability $\alpha < \frac{1}{2}$, and is otherwise blue. We show that if $\alpha$ is sufficiently biased away from $\frac{1}{2}$, then with high probability, consensus is reached on the initial global majority within $O(\log_d \log_d t)$ steps. Here $t$ is the number of vertices and $d \geq 5$ is the minimum of $k$ and $m$ (or $m-1$ if $m$ is even), $m$ being the number of edges each new vertex adds in the preferential attachment generative process. Additionally, our analysis reduces the required bias of $\alpha$ for graphs of a given degree sequence studied by the first author (which includes, e.g., random regular graphs)

Analysis of Receptor Binding by the Channel-forming Toxin Aerolysin Using Surface Plasmon Resonance

Aerolysin is a channel-forming bacterial toxin that binds to glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI) anchors on host cell-surface structures. The nature of the receptors and the location of the receptor-binding sites on the toxin molecule were investigated using surface plasmon resonance. Aerolysin bound to the GPI-anchored proteins Thy-1, variant surface glycoprotein, and contactin with similar rate constants and affinities. Enzymatic removal of N-linked sugars from Thy-1 did not affect toxin binding, indicating that these sugars are not involved in the high affinity interaction with aerolysin. Aerolysin is a bilobal protein, and both lobes were shown to be required for optimal binding. The large lobe by itself bound Thy-1 with an affinity that was at least 10-fold weaker than that of the whole toxin, whereas the small lobe bound the GPI-anchored protein at least 1000-fold more weakly than the intact toxin. Mutation analyses provided further evidence that both lobes were involved in GPI anchor binding, with certain single amino acid substitutions in either domain leading to reductions in affinity of as much as 100-fold. A variant with single amino acid substitutions in both lobes of the protein was completely unable to bind the receptor. The membrane protein glycophorin, which is heavily glycosylated but not GPI-anchored, bound weakly to immobilized proaerolysin, suggesting that interactions with cell-surface carbohydrate structures other than GPI anchors may partially mediate toxin binding to host cells

A comparison of friction modifier performance using two laboratory test scales

This paper describes two methods, carried out at two different test scales, for assessing the friction modifier performance. Study A used the wear data from a full-scale rig test at the voestalpine Schienen GmbH and compared it with the wear data from twin disc tests using the SUROS test machine at the University of Sheffield. Study B compared the ‘retentivity’ data, from a full-scale rig at the University of Sheffield, with the data from the SUROS tests. Study A concluded that a good correlation existed between the two scales although assumptions made in the full-scale contact calculation introduce a large spread into the results. There was a greater correlation between the two data sets at more severe contact conditions. Study B showed a different baseline coefficient of traction between the two scales and that a longer test length is required to fully evaluate the ‘retention’ of the friction modifier on the full-scale rig. The paper expands on a previous conference presentation on the same subject. Additional information on the test procedure and test rigs is included here. Surface and subsurface analyses of the SUROS test samples have also been added. The analyses have shown that applying the friction modifier leads to a similar wear mechanism as for the dry contact, but the wear is less severe and there is less subsurface deformation. A discussion describing the differences in test scales and comparing lab tests to field operation is also included

Globally Optimal Crowdsourcing Quality Management

We study crowdsourcing quality management, that is, given worker responses to a set of tasks, our goal is to jointly estimate the true answers for the tasks, as well as the quality of the workers. Prior work on this problem relies primarily on applying Expectation-Maximization (EM) on the underlying maximum likelihood problem to estimate true answers as well as worker quality. Unfortunately, EM only provides a locally optimal solution rather than a globally optimal one. Other solutions to the problem (that do not leverage EM) fail to provide global optimality guarantees as well. In this paper, we focus on filtering, where tasks require the evaluation of a yes/no predicate, and rating, where tasks elicit integer scores from a finite domain. We design algorithms for finding the global optimal estimates of correct task answers and worker quality for the underlying maximum likelihood problem, and characterize the complexity of these algorithms. Our algorithms conceptually consider all mappings from tasks to true answers (typically a very large number), leveraging two key ideas to reduce, by several orders of magnitude, the number of mappings under consideration, while preserving optimality. We also demonstrate that these algorithms often find more accurate estimates than EM-based algorithms. This paper makes an important contribution towards understanding the inherent complexity of globally optimal crowdsourcing quality management

Comparing the Accuracy of Egg Candling and Egg Flotation to Estimate the Hatching Date of Northern Bobwhite Clutches

Floating and candling avian eggs to assess hatch dates has been used successfully to estimate hatch dates for wild bird clutches for decades. However, there is a dearth of information assessing the accuracy of these techniques to estimate northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) hatch dates. We captured and fitted a hen bobwhites with very high frequency transmitters during January and February of 2011–2012. We monitored each bird twice weekly until nesting was initiated. We searched for the nest while the hen was away from the nest (i.e., feeding) to reduce potential abandonment. We used egg floatation and egg candling methods to attempt to estimate wild northern bobwhite clutches during the 2011–2012 nesting seasons. We used a mini MagLite© (97 lumens; Mag Instrument, Inc., Ontario, CA, USA) with the glass lens removed so eggs would sit near the bulb to increase the illumination. We used a dark green 68-cm x 137-cm towel to cover the observer in the field to reduce the naturally occurring light, which might have reduced the visibility of the chick embryo. We based age of the eggs (no. of days since the start of incubation) on the embryo growth stage at the time of nest discovery. We conducted egg flotation at the same time as candling. We used a 100-mL glass beaker with 100-mL of ambient temperature tap water to completely submerge the egg to estimate hatch date. We based the flotation estimation age on the angle at which the egg floated in the water. We also conducted a controlled laboratory experiment using pen-raised quail eggs collected from the breeding colony at the Quail-Tech Alliance breeding facility in Lubbock, Texas. We placed 110 eggs in a commercial incubator that was maintained at 37° C with 55% humidity for the duration of the study. We used 3 novice observers to determine the impact of observer bias on the techniques of estimating hatch date. We placed random groups of eggs (i.e., 5–15 eggs at a time until 110 eggs were obtained) into the incubator at a staggered rate to increase variation in the study. We used the same field techniques for hatch date estimation in the controlled study. We first floated eggs during both controlled and field observations to reduce any potential bias that candling might have on the hatch date estimation (i.e., lack of embryo growth). During the controlled study observers examined the eggs individually. Using the average estimated hatch date (Julian date) as a predictor, we used linear regression to determine the accuracy of the candling and floating methods. We also used a linear regression to determine the accuracy of each estimation technique and observers. When candle and egg floating occurred in a field setting, both methods were found to overestimate the actual hatch date of the clutches discovered (n = 47; R2 = 0.993, P \u3c 0.001; estimated hatch days when using candle: x̄ = 1.21 ± 0.92 days, floating: x̄ = 0.89 ± 0.97 days). However, the mean difference between the candling and flotation was -0.38 days (SE = 1.07 days). Regression analysis suggests that candling and egg flotation are fairly accurate predictors of the actual hatch date for newly discovered bobwhite nests (candling: β = 0.43, t = 3.75, P = 0.001; floating: β = 0.53, t = 4.79, P \u3c 0.001). Use of the candling method appears to be correct 43% of the time whereas egg flotation accurately predicted the estimated hatch date 53% of the time. Under controlled conditions, all 3 observers were new to both techniques of hatch date estimation and were all taught by the same instructor for each method. During the controlled test, we found that observers were highly variable. Two observers could predict the estimated hatch date by using the candling and egg flotation methods to a close estimation of the actual hatch date (floating [observer 1: β = 0.23, t = 2.80, P = 0.006 and observer 2: β = 0.47, t = 5.52, P \u3c 0.001]; candling [observer 1: β = 0.30, t = 4.00, P = 0.006, observer 2: β = 0.219, P \u3c 0.01]). Although observer 3 was unable to predict the estimated hatch date for both estimation methods (floating: β = –0.001, t = –0.013, P = 0.684; candling: β = 0.043, t = 0.40, P = 0.990). We also examined any potential abandonment or hatchability issues that might have risen while using candling or floating to estimate hatch dates for wild clutches. We found that 0.06% (5 of 80 nests) of hens abandoned their clutches during this study. Of the 5 nests that were abandoned zero were abandoned because of measurements obtained during the initial investigation of the nest site. All abandonments were due to either weather (i.e., summer hail), predators, or livestock. Viability and hatchability were unaffected for the remaining clutches that were measured during the field study. We found that candling and egg flotation are both viable methods for estimating hatch dates of bobwhite clutches during an initial measurement when a nest is discovered. When an entire clutch is measured accuracy can be within 1 day of the actual estimated hatch date (based on a 24-day incubation period). However, observers or researchers who will estimate hatch dates for clutches should be properly trained and allowed time to acclimate to the measuring techniques to potentially increase their accuracy at estimating hatch dates for northern bobwhite clutches