A Bayesian approach to the g-formula

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health interventions. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin’s original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data are sparse. We demonstrate an approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index among children aged 4–9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We provide an algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement this computational approach more generally

Left truncation bias to explain the protective effect of smoking on preeclampsia potential, but how plausible?

Background: An inverse association between maternal smoking and preeclampsia has been frequently observed in epidemiologic studies for several decades. In the May 2015 issue of this journal, Lisonkova and Joseph described a simulation study suggesting that bias from left truncation might explain the inverse association. The simulations were based on strong assumptions regarding the underlying mechanisms through which bias might occur. Methods: To examine the sensitivity of the previous authors' conclusions to these assumptions, we constructed a new Monte Carlo simulation using published estimates to frame our data-generating parameters. We estimated the association between smoking and preeclampsia across a range of scenarios that incorporated abnormal placentation and early pregnancy loss. Results: Our results confirmed that the previous authors' findings are highly dependent on assumptions regarding the strength of association between abnormal placentation and preeclampsia. Thus, the bias they described may be less pronounced than was suggested. Conclusions: Under empirically derived constraints of these critical assumptions, left truncation does not appear to fully explain the inverse association between smoking and preeclampsia. Furthermore, when considering processes in which left truncation may result from the exposure, it is important to precisely describe the target population and parameter of interest before assessing potential bias. We comment on the specification of a meaningful target population when assessing maternal smoking and preeclampsia as a public health issue. We describe considerations for defining a target population in studies of perinatal exposures when those exposures cause competing events (e.g., early pregnancy loss) for primary outcomes of interest

Racial and ethnic differences in predictors of vitamin D among pregnant women in south-eastern USA

Insufficient vitamin D during pregnancy increases risk of adverse outcomes, with known differences by race/ethnicity. We sought to determine whether predictors of vitamin D insufficiency vary by race/ethnicity in an ethnically diverse pregnancy cohort. Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and patient characteristics were measured at first prenatal visit to prenatal clinics in south-eastern USA between 2009 and 2011 (n 504). Prevalence ratios (PR) and 95 % CI were estimated using multivariable regression to quantify predictors of vitamin D insufficiency, overall and by race/ethnicity. In race/ethnicity-stratified models, season was most associated with vitamin D insufficiency among non-Hispanic white women; PR for winter v. summer were 3·58 (95 % CI 1·64, 7·81) for non-Hispanic white, 1·52 (95 % CI 1·18, 1·95) for Hispanic and 1·14 (95 % CI 0·99, 1·30) for non-Hispanic black women. Although women with darker skin tones are most vulnerable to prenatal vitamin D insufficiency, season may be more strongly associated with insufficiency among women with lighter skin tones

Associations of prenatal environmental phenol and phthalate biomarkers with respiratory and allergic diseases among children aged 6 and 7 years

Background: Prenatal environmental phenol and phthalate exposures may alter immune or inflammatory responses leading to respiratory and allergic disease. Objectives: We estimated associations of prenatal environmental phenol and phthalate biomarkers with respiratory and allergic outcomes among children in the Mount Sinai Children's Environmental Health Study. Methods: We quantified urinary biomarkers of benzophenone-3, bisphenol A, paradichlorobenzene (as 2,5-dichlorophenol), triclosan, and 10 phthalate metabolites in third trimester maternal samples and assessed asthma, wheeze, and atopic skin conditions via parent questionnaires at ages 6 and 7 years (n = 164 children with 240 observations). We used logistic regression to estimate covariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) per standard deviation difference in natural log biomarker concentrations and examined effect measure modification by child's sex. Results: Associations of prenatal 2,5-dichlorophenol (all outcomes) and bisphenol A (asthma outcomes) were modified by child's sex, with increased odds of outcomes among boys but not girls. Among boys, ORs for asthma diagnosis per standard deviation difference in biomarker concentration were 3.00 (95% CI: 1.36, 6.59) for 2,5-dichlorophenol and 3.04 (95% CI: 1.38, 6.68) for bisphenol A. Wheeze in the past 12 months was inversely associated with low molecular weight phthalate metabolites among girls only (OR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.59) and with benzophenone-3 among all children (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.96). Conclusions: Prenatal bisphenol A and paradichlorobenzene exposures were associated with pediatric respiratory outcomes among boys. Future studies may shed light on biological mechanisms and potential sexually-dimorphic effects of select phenols and phthalates on respiratory disease development

Community structural differences shape microbial responses to high molecular weight organic matter

The extent to which differences in microbial community structure result in variations in organic matter (OM) degradation is not well understood. Here, we tested the hypothesis that distinct marine microbial communities from North Atlantic surface and bottom waters would exhibit varying compositional succession and functional shifts in response to the same pool of complex high molecular weight (HMW-OM). We also hypothesized that microbial communities would produce a broader spectrum of enzymes upon exposure to HMW-OM, indicating a greater potential to degrade these compounds than reflected by initial enzymatic activities. Our results show that community succession in amended mesocosms was congruent with cell growth, increased bacterial production and most notably, with substantial shifts in enzymatic activities. In all amended mesocosms, closely related taxa that were initially rare became dominant at time frames during which a broader spectrum of active enzymes were detected compared to initial timepoints, indicating a similar response among different communities. However, succession on the whole-community level, and the rates, spectra and progression of enzymatic activities, reveal robust differences among distinct communities from discrete water masses. These results underscore the crucial role of rare bacterial taxa in ocean carbon cycling and the importance of bacterial community structure for HMW-OM degradation

Measurements of Distributed Strain During Impact Pile Driving

This paper reports the use of optical Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors to monitor the stress waves generated below ground during pile driving, combined with measurements using conventional pile driving analyzer (PDA) sensors mounted at the pile head. Fourteen tubular steel piles with a diameter of 508 mm and embedded length to diameter ratios of 6 to 20 were impact driven at an established chalk test site in Kent, UK. The pile shafts were instrumented with multiple FBG strain gauges and pile head PDA sensors, which monitored the piles’ responses under each hammer blow. A high frequency (5 kHz) fibre optic interrogator allowed a previously unseen resolution of the stress wave propagation along the pile. Estimates of the base soil resistances to driving and distributions of shaft shear resistances were found through signal matching that compared time series of pile head PDA measurements and FBG strains measured below ground surface. Numerical solutions of the one-dimensional wave equation were optimised by taking account of the data from multiple FBG gauges, leading to significant advantages that have potential for widespread application in cases where high resolution strain measurements are made

Community structural differences shape microbial responses to high molecular weight organic matter

The extent to which differences in microbial community structure result in variations in organic matter (OM) degradation is not well understood. Here, we tested the hypothesis that distinct marine microbial communities from North Atlantic surface and bottom waters would exhibit varying compositional succession and functional shifts in response to the same pool of complex high molecular weight (HMW-OM). We also hypothesized that microbial communities would produce a broader spectrum of enzymes upon exposure to HMW-OM, indicating a greater potential to degrade these compounds than reflected by initial enzymatic activities. Our results show that community succession in amended mesocosms was congruent with cell growth, increased bacterial production and most notably, with substantial shifts in enzymatic activities. In all amended mesocosms, closely related taxa that were initially rare became dominant at time frames during which a broader spectrum of active enzymes were detected compared to initial timepoints, indicating a similar response among different communities. However, succession on the whole-community level, and the rates, spectra and progression of enzymatic activities, reveal robust differences among distinct communities from discrete water masses. These results underscore the crucial role of rare bacterial taxa in ocean carbon cycling and the importance of bacterial community structure for HMW-OM degradation