Importance Sampling for multi-constraints rare event probability

Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approx- imations of the optimal density leading to a nearly zero-variance estimator. This paper presents a new way to handle the estimation of the probability of a rare event defined as a finite intersection of subset. We provide a sharp approximation of the density of long runs of a random walk condi- tioned by multiples constraints, each of them defined by an average of a function of its summands as their number tends to infinity.Comment: Conference pape

Application of importance sampling to the computation of large deviations in non-equilibrium processes

We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track of the relative weight of phase-space trajectories generated by the modified and the original dynamics one can obtain the required probabilities. The algorithm is tested on two model systems of steady-state particle and heat transport where we find a huge improvement from direct simulation methods.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures; some modification

A realistic double many-body expansion potential energy surface for from a multiproperty fit to accurate ab initio energies and vibrational levels

A single-valued double many-body expansion potential energy surface (DMBE I) recently obtained for the ground electronic state of the sulfur dioxide molecule by fitting correlated ab initio energies suitably corrected by scaling the dynamical correlation energy is now refined by fitting simultaneously available spectroscopic levels up to 6886 cm-1 above the minimum. The topographical features of the novel potential energy surface (DMBE II) are examined in detail, and the method is emphasized as a robust route to fit together state-of-the-art theoretical calculations and spectroscopic measurements using a single fully dimensional potential form.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VNG-44JJ0TT-5/1/c39f816ff06826dc517ad62441e91b5

Freight Mobility Supports Economic Development

This presentation starts with an overview of freight planning and implementation strategies then moves on to a conversation about the role of freight in driving Indiana’s economic development. To round out the session, we will discuss Whitestown as a case study on how communities can leverage freight to their advantage

Rare behavior of growth processes via umbrella sampling of trajectories

We compute probability distributions of trajectory observables for reversible and irreversible growth processes. These results reveal a correspondence between reversible and irreversible processes, at particular points in parameter space, in terms of their typical and atypical trajectories. Thus key features of growth processes can be insensitive to the precise form of the rate constants used to generate them, recalling the insensitivity to microscopic details of certain equilibrium behavior. We obtained these results using a sampling method, inspired by the “s-ensemble” large-deviation formalism, that amounts to umbrella sampling in trajectory space. The method is a simple variant of existing approaches, and applies to ensembles of trajectories controlled by the total number of events. It can be used to determine large-deviation rate functions for trajectory observables in or out of equilibrium

Max Markov Chain

In this paper, we introduce Max Markov Chain (MMC), a novel representation for a useful subset of High-order Markov Chains (HMCs) with sparse correlations among the states. MMC is parsimony while retaining the expressiveness of HMCs. Even though parameter optimization is generally intractable as with HMC approximate models, it has an analytical solution, better sample efficiency, and the desired spatial and computational advantages over HMCs and approximate HMCs. Simultaneously, efficient approximate solutions exist for this type of chains as we show empirically, which allow MMCs to scale to large domains where HMCs and approximate HMCs would struggle to perform. We compare MMC with HMC, first-order Markov chain, and an approximate HMC model in synthetic domains with various data types to demonstrate that MMC is a valuable alternative for modeling stochastic processes and has many potential applications

Some recent developments in quantization of fractal measures

We give an overview on the quantization problem for fractal measures, including some related results and methods which have been developed in the last decades. Based on the work of Graf and Luschgy, we propose a three-step procedure to estimate the quantization errors. We survey some recent progress, which makes use of this procedure, including the quantization for self-affine measures, Markov-type measures on graph-directed fractals, and product measures on multiscale Moran sets. Several open problems are mentioned.Comment: 13 page

Quadratic optimal functional quantization of stochastic processes and numerical applications

In this paper, we present an overview of the recent developments of functional quantization of stochastic processes, with an emphasis on the quadratic case. Functional quantization is a way to approximate a process, viewed as a Hilbert-valued random variable, using a nearest neighbour projection on a finite codebook. A special emphasis is made on the computational aspects and the numerical applications, in particular the pricing of some path-dependent European options.Comment: 41 page