Factors Influencing Pika Foraging Behavior in the North Cascades National Park Service Complex, Washington

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is a small lagomorph restricted to talus slopes at higher elevations or latitudes throughout mountainous regions in western North America. Pikas respond to seasonal fluctuations in food availability by haying, i.e., storing, vegetation for use during winter, and are considered a climate change indicator species because of their sensitivity to heat and restricted habitat requirements. Prior to 2009, no data existed on pika populations or foraging behavior in the North Cascades National Park Service Complex (NOCA) in Washington. To help address these data needs, we collected behavioral data on 95 foraging pikas throughout NOCA during summer 2009 and 2010 to better understand abiotic and biotic factors affecting foraging behavior and potential impacts of climate change on pikas. We calculated the proportion of time pikas spent grazing and haying, and developed competing hypotheses for each behavior expressed as logistic regression models consisting of climate, vegetation, elevation, date, and year covariates. We selected top models for both behaviors using information-theoretic techniques, and found that time spent grazing decreased while haying behavior increased through summer. Pikas spent more time haying as elevation increased while time spent grazing was negatively correlated with elevation, suggesting possible constraints in time available for foraging at higher elevations. Time spent grazing was also negatively correlated with temperature, a result likely in response to thermoregulation limitations of pikas. These results demonstrate how multiple factors may affect pika foraging behavior, thereby providing an opportunity to assist resource managers in future decisions regarding pika conservation

Multi-season occupancy models identify biotic and abiotic factors influencing a recovering Arctic Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus tundrius population

Critical information for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies for species of concern include distinguishing seldom occupied (or low-quality) habitat from habitat that is frequently occupied and thus contributes substantially to population trends. Using multi-season models that account for imperfect detection and a long-term (1981-2002) dataset on migratory Arctic Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus tundrius nesting along the Colville River, Alaska, we quantified the effects of previous year's productivity (i.e. site quality), amount of prey habitat, topography, climate, competition and year on occupancy dynamics across two spatial scales (nest-sites, cliffs) during recovery of the population. Initial occupancy probability was positively correlated with area of surrounding prey habitat and height of nest-sites above the Colville River. Colonization probability was positively correlated with nest height and negatively correlated with date of snowmelt. Local extinction probability was negatively correlated with productivity, area of prey habitat and nest height. Colonization and local extinction probabilities were also positively and negatively correlated, respectively, with year. Our results suggest that nest-sites (or cliffs) along the Colville River do not need equal protection measures. Nest-sites and cliffs with historically higher productivity were occupied most frequently and had lower probability of local extinction. These sites were on cliffs high above the river drainage, surrounded by adequate prey habitat and with southerly aspects associated with early snowmelt and warmer microclimates in spring. Protecting these sites is likely to encourage continued occupancy by Arctic Peregrine Falcons along the Colville River and other similar areas. Our findings also illustrate the importance of evaluating fitness parameters along with climate and habitat features when analysing occupancy dynamics, particularly with a long-term dataset spanning a range of annual climate variation.Keywords: occupancy dynamics, population recovery, site colonization probability, Colville River Special Area, National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, site local extinction probability, nest-site qualit

Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably indicative of higher-quality habitat), are a priority for continued protection from potential nearby development and disturbance to minimize population-level impacts. Climate change may affect Arctic peregrines in multiple ways, including through access to more snow-free nest sites and a lengthened breeding season that may increase likelihood of nest success. Our work provides insight into factors affecting a population during and after recovery, and demonstrates how the Dail-Madsen model can be used for any unmarked population with multiple years of abundance data collected through repeated surveys.KEYWORDS: density dependence, Falco peregrinus tundrius, abundance, Arctic Peregrine Falcons, Dail-Madsen model, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), population dynamics, Colville River Special Area (CRSA), Alaska, USA, snowpack, National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), climate change, apparent survival rat

Ecological Consequences of Anomalies in Atmospheric Moisture and Snowpack

Although increased frequency of extreme‐weather events is one of the most secure predictions associated with contemporary climate change, effects of such events on distribution and abundance of climate‐sensitive species remain poorly understood. Montane ecosystems may be especially sensitive to extreme weather because of complex abiotic and biotic interactions that propagate from climate‐driven reductions in snowpack. Snowpack not only protects subnivean biotas from extreme cold, but also influences forage availability through timing of melt‐off and water availability. We related relative abundances of an alpine mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps), to measures of weather and snowpack dynamics over an 8‐yr period that included before and after a year of record‐low snowpack in Washington, USA. We sought to (1) quantify any change in pika abundance associated with the snowpack anomaly and (2) identify aspects of weather and snowpack that influenced abundance of pikas. Pikas showed a 1‐yr lag response to the snowpack anomaly and exhibited marked declines in abundance at elevations below 1,400 m simultaneous with increased abundances at higher elevations. Atmospheric moisture, indexed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), was especially important, evidenced by strong support for the top‐ranked model that included the interaction of VPD with snowpack duration. Notably, our novel application of VPD from gridded climate data for analyses of animal abundances shows strong potential for improving species distribution models because VPD represents an important aspect of weather that influences the physiology and habitat of biota. Pikas were apparently affected by cold stress without snowpack at mid elevations, whereas changes to forage associated with snowpack and VPD were influential at high and low elevations. Our results reveal context dependency in pika responses to weather and illustrate how snow drought can lead to rapid change in the abundance of subnivean animals

Mitochondrial Variability as a Source of Extrinsic Cellular Noise

We present a study investigating the role of mitochondrial variability in generating noise in eukaryotic cells. Noise in cellular physiology plays an important role in many fundamental cellular processes, including transcription, translation, stem cell differentiation and response to medication, but the specific random influences that affect these processes have yet to be clearly elucidated. Here we present a mechanism by which variability in mitochondrial volume and functionality, along with cell cycle dynamics, is linked to variability in transcription rate and hence has a profound effect on downstream cellular processes. Our model mechanism is supported by an appreciable volume of recent experimental evidence, and we present the results of several new experiments with which our model is also consistent. We find that noise due to mitochondrial variability can sometimes dominate over other extrinsic noise sources (such as cell cycle asynchronicity) and can significantly affect large-scale observable properties such as cell cycle length and gene expression levels. We also explore two recent regulatory network-based models for stem cell differentiation, and find that extrinsic noise in transcription rate causes appreciable variability in the behaviour of these model systems. These results suggest that mitochondrial and transcriptional variability may be an important mechanism influencing a large variety of cellular processes and properties

KennedyPatriciaFishWildlifeMultiSeasonOccupancyModels(SupportingInfo).pdf

Critical information for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies for species of concern include distinguishing seldom occupied (or low-quality) habitat from habitat that is frequently occupied and thus contributes substantially to population trends. Using multi-season models that account for imperfect detection and a long-term (1981-2002) dataset on migratory Arctic Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus tundrius nesting along the Colville River, Alaska, we quantified the effects of previous year's productivity (i.e. site quality), amount of prey habitat, topography, climate, competition and year on occupancy dynamics across two spatial scales (nest-sites, cliffs) during recovery of the population. Initial occupancy probability was positively correlated with area of surrounding prey habitat and height of nest-sites above the Colville River. Colonization probability was positively correlated with nest height and negatively correlated with date of snowmelt. Local extinction probability was negatively correlated with productivity, area of prey habitat and nest height. Colonization and local extinction probabilities were also positively and negatively correlated, respectively, with year. Our results suggest that nest-sites (or cliffs) along the Colville River do not need equal protection measures. Nest-sites and cliffs with historically higher productivity were occupied most frequently and had lower probability of local extinction. These sites were on cliffs high above the river drainage, surrounded by adequate prey habitat and with southerly aspects associated with early snowmelt and warmer microclimates in spring. Protecting these sites is likely to encourage continued occupancy by Arctic Peregrine Falcons along the Colville River and other similar areas. Our findings also illustrate the importance of evaluating fitness parameters along with climate and habitat features when analysing occupancy dynamics, particularly with a long-term dataset spanning a range of annual climate variation.Keywords: nest-site quality, site local extinction probability, site colonization probability, Colville River Special Area, National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, occupancy dynamics, population recover

Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably indicative of higher-quality habitat), are a priority for continued protection from potential nearby development and disturbance to minimize population-level impacts. Climate change may affect Arctic peregrines in multiple ways, including through access to more snow-free nest sites and a lengthened breeding season that may increase likelihood of nest success. Our work provides insight into factors affecting a population during and after recovery, and demonstrates how the Dail-Madsen model can be used for any unmarked population with multiple years of abundance data collected through repeated surveys.Keywords: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Peregrine Falcons, abundance, climate change, apparent survival rate, Dail-Madsen model, Falco peregrinus tundrius, density dependence, Colville River Special Area (CRSA)\, Alaska\, USA, National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), snowpack, population dynamic

KennedyPatriciaFishWildlifeMultiSeasonOccupancyModels.pdf

Critical information for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies for species of concern include distinguishing seldom occupied (or low-quality) habitat from habitat that is frequently occupied and thus contributes substantially to population trends. Using multi-season models that account for imperfect detection and a long-term (1981-2002) dataset on migratory Arctic Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus tundrius nesting along the Colville River, Alaska, we quantified the effects of previous year's productivity (i.e. site quality), amount of prey habitat, topography, climate, competition and year on occupancy dynamics across two spatial scales (nest-sites, cliffs) during recovery of the population. Initial occupancy probability was positively correlated with area of surrounding prey habitat and height of nest-sites above the Colville River. Colonization probability was positively correlated with nest height and negatively correlated with date of snowmelt. Local extinction probability was negatively correlated with productivity, area of prey habitat and nest height. Colonization and local extinction probabilities were also positively and negatively correlated, respectively, with year. Our results suggest that nest-sites (or cliffs) along the Colville River do not need equal protection measures. Nest-sites and cliffs with historically higher productivity were occupied most frequently and had lower probability of local extinction. These sites were on cliffs high above the river drainage, surrounded by adequate prey habitat and with southerly aspects associated with early snowmelt and warmer microclimates in spring. Protecting these sites is likely to encourage continued occupancy by Arctic Peregrine Falcons along the Colville River and other similar areas. Our findings also illustrate the importance of evaluating fitness parameters along with climate and habitat features when analysing occupancy dynamics, particularly with a long-term dataset spanning a range of annual climate variation.Keywords: site colonization probability, site local extinction probability, population recovery, occupancy dynamics, Colville River Special Area, nest-site quality, National Petroleum Reserve-Alask

Appendix A. Development and results of sightability analyses from aerial counts of pronghorn in Yellowstone National Park.

Development and results of sightability analyses from aerial counts of pronghorn in Yellowstone National Park