Towards a flexible Decision Support Tool for MSY-based Marine Protected Area design for skates and rays

Peer-reviewed Paper. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in ICES Journal of Marine Science following peer review. The version of record Dedman, S., Officer, R., Brophy, D., Clarke, M., & Reid, D. G. (2017). Towards a flexible Decision Support Tool for MSY-based Marine Protected Area design for skates and rays. Ices Journal of Marine Science, 74(2), 576–587. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsw147 is available online at: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/576/2669563 & https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsw147.It is recommended that demersal elasmobranchs be managed using spatial proxies for Maximum Sustainable Yield. Here we combine escapement biomass—the percentage of the stock which must be retained each year to conserve it—with maps of predicted Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) of four ray species [cuckoo (Leucoraja naevus), thornback (Raja clavata), blonde (Raja brachyura), and spotted (Raja montagui)], created using Boosted Regression Tree modelling. We then use a Decision Support Tool to generate location and size options for Marine Protected Areas to protect these stocks, based on the priorities of the various stakeholders, notably the minimisation of fishing effort displacement. Variations of conservation/fishing priorities are simulated, as well as differential priorities for individual species, with a focus on protecting nursery grounds and spawning areas. Prioritizing high CPUE cells results in a smaller closed area that displaces the most fishing effort, whereas prioritizing low fishing effort results in a larger closed area that displaces the least fishing effort. The final result is a complete software package that produces maps of predicted species CPUE from limited survey data, and allows disparate stakeholders and policymakers to discuss management options within a mapping interface

A Mixed Model for Assessing the Effect of Numerous Plant Species Interactions on Grassland Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function Relationships

In grassland ecosystems, it is well known that increasing plant species diversity can improve ecosystem functions (i.e., ecosystem responses), for example, by increasing productivity and reducing weed invasion. Diversity-Interactions models use species proportions and their interactions as predictors in a regression framework to assess biodiversity and ecosystem function relationships. However, it can be difficult to model numerous interactions if there are many species, and interactions may be temporally variable or dependent on spatial planting patterns. We developed a new Diversity-Interactions mixed model for jointly assessing many species interactions and within-plot species planting pattern over multiple years. We model pairwise interactions using a small number of fixed parameters that incorporate spatial effects and supplement this by including all pairwise interaction variables as random effects, each constrained to have the same variance within each year. The random effects are indexed by pairs of species within plots rather than a plot-level factor as is typical in mixed models, and capture remaining variation due to pairwise species interactions parsimoniously. We apply our novel methodology to three years of weed invasion data from a 16-species grassland experiment that manipulated plant species diversity and spatial planting pattern and test its statistical properties in a simulation study. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online

Reading the biomineralized book of life: expanding otolith biogeochemical research and applications for fisheries and ecosystem-based management

Chemical analysis of calcified structures continues to flourish, as analytical and technological advances enable researchers to tap into trace elements and isotopes taken up in otoliths and other archival tissues at ever greater resolution. Increasingly, these tracers are applied to refine age estimation and interpretation, and to chronicle responses to environmental stressors, linking these to ecological, physiological, and life-history processes. Here, we review emerging approaches and innovative research directions in otolith chemistry, as well as in the chemistry of other archival tissues, outlining their value for fisheries and ecosystem-based management, turning the spotlight on areas where such biomarkers can support decision making. We summarise recent milestones and the challenges that lie ahead to using otoliths and archival tissues as biomarkers, grouped into seven, rapidly expanding and application-oriented research areas that apply chemical analysis in a variety of contexts, namely: (1) supporting fish age estimation; (2) evaluating environmental stress, ecophysiology and individual performance; (3) confirming seafood provenance; (4) resolving connectivity and movement pathways; (5) characterising food webs and trophic interactions; (6) reconstructing reproductive life histories; and (7) tracing stock enhancement efforts. Emerging research directions that apply hard part chemistry to combat seafood fraud, quantify past food webs, as well as to reconcile growth, movement, thermal, metabolic, stress and reproductive life-histories provide opportunities to examine how harvesting and global change impact fish health and fisheries productivity. Ultimately, improved appreciation of the many practical benefits of archival tissue chemistry to fisheries and ecosystem-based management will support their increased implementation into routine monitoring.[GRAPHICS]

Professional care workforce: a rapid review of evidence supporting methods of recruitment, retention, safety, and education

Background: Across the care economy there are major shortages in the health and care workforce, as well as high rates of attrition and ill-defined career pathways. The aim of this study was to evaluate current evidence regarding methods to improve care worker recruitment, retention, safety, and education, for the professional care workforce. Methods: A rapid review of comparative interventions designed to recruit, retain, educate and care for the professional workforce in the following sectors: disability, aged care, health, mental health, family and youth services, and early childhood education and care was conducted. Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched, and studies published between January 2015 and November 2022 were included. We used the Quality Assessment tool for Quantitative Studies and the PEDro tools to evaluate study quality. Results: 5594 articles were initially screened and after applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 30 studies were included in the rapid review. Studies most frequently reported on the professional nursing, medical and allied health workforces. Some studies focused on the single domain of care worker education (n = 11) while most focused on multiple domains that combined education with recruitment strategies, retention strategies or a focus on worker safety. Study quality was comparatively low with a median PEDro score of 5/10, and 77% received a weak rating on the Quality Assessment tool for Quantitative Studies. Four new workforce strategies emerged; early career rural recruitment supports rural retention; workload management is essential for workforce well-being; learning must be contextually relevant; and there is a need to differentiate recruitment, retention, and education strategies for different professional health and care workforce categories as needs vary. Conclusions: Given the critical importance of recruiting and retaining a strong health and care workforce, there is an immediate need to develop a cohesive strategy to address workforce shortfalls. This paper presents initial evidence on different interventions to address this need, and to inform care workforce recruitment and retention. Rapid Review registration PROSPERO 2022 CRD42022371721 Available from: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD4202237172

Reading the biomineralized book of life: expanding otolith biogeochemical research and applications for fisheries and ecosystem-based management

AbstractChemical analysis of calcified structures continues to flourish, as analytical and technological advances enable researchers to tap into trace elements and isotopes taken up in otoliths and other archival tissues at ever greater resolution. Increasingly, these tracers are applied to refine age estimation and interpretation, and to chronicle responses to environmental stressors, linking these to ecological, physiological, and life-history processes. Here, we review emerging approaches and innovative research directions in otolith chemistry, as well as in the chemistry of other archival tissues, outlining their value for fisheries and ecosystem-based management, turning the spotlight on areas where such biomarkers can support decision making. We summarise recent milestones and the challenges that lie ahead to using otoliths and archival tissues as biomarkers, grouped into seven, rapidly expanding and application-oriented research areas that apply chemical analysis in a variety of contexts, namely: (1) supporting fish age estimation; (2) evaluating environmental stress, ecophysiology and individual performance; (3) confirming seafood provenance; (4) resolving connectivity and movement pathways; (5) characterising food webs and trophic interactions; (6) reconstructing reproductive life histories; and (7) tracing stock enhancement efforts. Emerging research directions that apply hard part chemistry to combat seafood fraud, quantify past food webs, as well as to reconcile growth, movement, thermal, metabolic, stress and reproductive life-histories provide opportunities to examine how harvesting and global change impact fish health and fisheries productivity. Ultimately, improved appreciation of the many practical benefits of archival tissue chemistry to fisheries and ecosystem-based management will support their increased implementation into routine monitoring. Graphical abstract</jats:p

Impact of clinical phenotypes on management and outcomes in European atrial fibrillation patients: a report from the ESC-EHRA EURObservational Research Programme in AF (EORP-AF) General Long-Term Registry

Background: Epidemiological studies in atrial fibrillation (AF) illustrate that clinical complexity increase the risk of major adverse outcomes. We aimed to describe European AF patients\u2019 clinical phenotypes and analyse the differential clinical course. Methods: We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward\u2019s Method and Squared Euclidean Distance using 22 clinical binary variables, identifying the optimal number of clusters. We investigated differences in clinical management, use of healthcare resources and outcomes in a cohort of European AF patients from a Europe-wide observational registry. Results: A total of 9363 were available for this analysis. We identified three clusters: Cluster 1 (n = 3634; 38.8%) characterized by older patients and prevalent non-cardiac comorbidities; Cluster 2 (n = 2774; 29.6%) characterized by younger patients with low prevalence of comorbidities; Cluster 3 (n = 2955;31.6%) characterized by patients\u2019 prevalent cardiovascular risk factors/comorbidities. Over a mean follow-up of 22.5 months, Cluster 3 had the highest rate of cardiovascular events, all-cause death, and the composite outcome (combining the previous two) compared to Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 (all P &lt;.001). An adjusted Cox regression showed that compared to Cluster 2, Cluster 3 (hazard ratio (HR) 2.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27\u20133.62; HR 3.42, 95%CI 2.72\u20134.31; HR 2.79, 95%CI 2.32\u20133.35), and Cluster 1 (HR 1.88, 95%CI 1.48\u20132.38; HR 2.50, 95%CI 1.98\u20133.15; HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.74\u20132.51) reported a higher risk for the three outcomes respectively. Conclusions: In European AF patients, three main clusters were identified, differentiated by differential presence of comorbidities. Both non-cardiac and cardiac comorbidities clusters were found to be associated with an increased risk of major adverse outcomes

Bio-physical models reveal the role of tides, wind and larval behaviour in early transport and retention of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus L.) in the Celtic Sea

Fish are adapted to spawn where their larvae will be retained in, or transported to suitable juvenile habitat. Variability in circulation and behaviour produces variation in larval transport with consequences for recruitment. A bio-physical model was used to simulate early larval dispersal of Celtic Sea herring during wintertime in six years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010). After 30 days, particles occurred in three areas: inshore Celtic Sea, offshore Celtic Sea and south Irish Sea, with the majority (70-78% on average) of particles retained in the Celtic Sea. Inclusion of tidal forcing increased transport to the Irish Sea and decreased transport offshore, as did release during a spring tide. Retention in the Celtic Sea was increased by diel vertical migration and decreased by horizontal diffusion. Strong and frequent west/south-westerly winds increased transport offshore while strong and frequent east/south-southeast winds increased inshore retention in the Celtic Sea and transport into the Irish Sea. The study shows how tides, winds and behaviour influence larval transport and retention and highlights potential impacts of climate change on population persistence.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author