MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE DEVELOPMENT POLICY EVALUATION MODEL (DEVPEM)

The purpose of the Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM) is to provide an appropriate modelling structure for analysing the welfare and distributional implications of alternative agricultural policies in developing countries. The aim of the model is to provide illustrative results that show how structural diversity among developing countries, and systemic differences from developed OECD countries, can affect the outcomes of alternative policy interventions. The model is relatively stylised, seeking to capture, as simply as possible, four critical aspects of rural economies in developing countries that are important when evaluating the impacts of agricultural and trade policies. These are: (1). The role of the household as both a producer and a consumer of food crops. (2). High transaction costs of participating in markets, resulting in a subsistence sector that often is important in terms of the number of households and the amount of food production it encompasses. (3). Market linkages that can transmit impacts of policy and market shocks among heterogeneous rural producers and consumers, particularly via factor markets (for labour, land or capital, when those markets exist). (4). The imperfect convertibility of land from one use to another.International Relations/Trade,

Biodiversity's big wet secret: the global distribution of marine biological records reveals chronic under-exploration of the deep pelagic ocean

Background: Understanding the distribution of marine biodiversity is a crucial first step towards the effective and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. Recent efforts to collate location records from marine surveys enable us to assemble a global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. They also effectively highlight gaps in our knowledge of particular marine regions. In particular, the deep pelagic ocean - the largest biome on Earth - is chronically under-represented in global databases of marine biodiversity. Methodology/Principal Findings: We use data from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System to plot the position in the water column of ca 7 million records of marine species occurrences. Records from relatively shallow waters dominate this global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. In addition, standardising the number of records from regions of the ocean differing in depth reveals that regardless of ocean depth, most records come either from surface waters or the sea bed. Midwater biodiversity is drastically under-represented. Conclusions/Significance: The deep pelagic ocean is the largest habitat by volume on Earth, yet it remains biodiversity's big wet secret, as it is hugely under-represented in global databases of marine biological records. Given both its value in the provision of a range of ecosystem services, and its vulnerability to threats including overfishing and climate change, there is a pressing need to increase our knowledge of Earth's largest ecosystem

Outlier-Resistant L1 Orthogonal Regression via the Reformulation-Linearization Technique

Assessing the linear relationship between a set of continuous predictors and a continuous response is a well-studied problem in statistics and data mining. L2-based methods such as ordinary least squares and orthogonal regression can be used to determine this relationship. However, both of these methods become impaired when influential values are present. This problem becomes compounded when outliers confound standard diagnostics. This work proposes an L1-norm orthogonal regression method (L1OR) formulated as a nonconvex optimization problem. Solution strategies for finding globally optimal solutions are presented. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the resistance of the method to outliers and the consistency of the method. The method is also applied to real-world data arising from an environmental science application

BRS and Anti-BRS Symmetry in Topological Yang--Mills Theory

We incorporate both BRS symmetry and anti-BRS symmetry into the quantisation of topological Yang--Mills theory. This refines previous treatments which consider only the BRS symmetry. Our formalism brings out very clearly the geometrical meaning of topological Yang--Mills theory in terms of connections and curvatures in an enlarged superspace; and its simple relationship to the geometry of ordinary Yang--Mills theory. We also discover a certain SU(3) triality between physical spacetime, and the two ghost directions of superspace. Finally, we demonstrate how to recover the usual gauge-fixed topological Yang--Mills action from our formalism.Comment: 17 pages, harvmac, DAMTP R92/3

Increased Antimicrobial and Multidrug Resistance Downstream of Wastewater Treatment Plants in an Urban Watershed

Development and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and multidrug resistance (MDR) through propagation of antibiotic resistance genes (ARG) in various environments is a global emerging public health concern. The role of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) as hot spots for the dissemination of AMR and MDR has been widely pointed out by the scientific community. In this study, we collected surface water samples from sites upstream and downstream of two WWTP discharge points in an urban watershed in the Bryan-College Station (BCS), Texas area, over a period of nine months. E. coli isolates were tested for resistance to ampicillin, tetracycline, sulfamethoxazole, ciprofloxacin, cephalothin, cefoperazone, gentamycin, and imipenem using the Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method. Antimicrobial resistant heterotrophic bacteria were cultured on R2A media amended with ampicillin, ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, and sulfamethoxazole for analyzing heterotrophic bacteria capable of growth on antibiotic-containing media. In addition, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method was used to measure eight ARG – tetA, tetW, aacA, ampC, mecA, ermA, blaTEM, and intI1 in the surface water collected at each time point. Significant associations (p \u3c 0.05) were observed between the locations of sampling sites relative to WWTP discharge points and the rate of E. coli isolate resistance to tetracycline, ampicillin, cefoperazone, ciprofloxacin, and sulfamethoxazole together with an increased rate of isolate MDR. The abundance of antibiotic-resistant heterotrophs was significantly greater (p \u3c 0.05) downstream of WWTPs compared to upstream locations for all tested antibiotics. Consistent with the results from the culture-based methods, the concentrations of all ARG were substantially higher in the downstream sites compared to the upstream sites, particularly in the site immediately downstream of the WWTP effluent discharges (except mecA). In addition, the Class I integron (intI1) genes were detected in high amounts at all sites and all sampling points, and were about ∼20 times higher in the downstream sites (2.5 × 107 copies/100 mL surface water) compared to the upstream sites (1.2 × 106 copies/100 mL surface water). Results suggest that the treated WWTP effluent discharges into surface waters can potentially contribute to the occurrence and prevalence of AMR in urban watersheds. In addition to detecting increased ARG in the downstream sites by qPCR, findings from this study also report an increase in viable AMR (HPC) and MDR (E. coli) in these sites. This data will benefit establishment of improved environmental regulations and practices to help manage AMR/MDR and ARG discharges into the environment, and to develop mitigation strategies and effective treatment of wastewater

Exercise intensity while hooked is associated with physiological status of longline-captured sharks

Some shark populations face declines owing to targeted capture and by-catch in longline fisheries. Exercise intensity during longline capture and physiological status may be associated, which could inform management strategies aimed at reducing the impacts of longline capture on sharks. The purpose of this study was to characterize relationships between exercise inten- sity and physiological status of longline-captured nurse sharks (Ginglymostoma cirratum) and Caribbean reef sharks (Carcharhinus perezi). Exercise intensity of longline-captured sharks was quantified with digital cameras and accelerometers, which was paired with blood-based physiological metrics from samples obtained immediately post-capture. Exercise intensity was associated with physiological status following longline capture. For nurse sharks, blood pH increased with capture dur- ation and the proportion of time exhibiting low-intensity exercise. Nurse sharks also had higher blood glucose and plasma potassium concentrations at higher sea surface temperatures. Associations between exercise intensity and physiological sta- tus for Caribbean reef sharks were equivocal; capture duration had a positive relation with blood lactate concentrations and a negative relationship with plasma chloride concentrations. Because Caribbean reef sharks did not appear able to influence blood pH through exercise intensity, this species was considered more vulnerable to physiological impairment. While both species appear quite resilient to longline capture, it remains to be determined if exercise intensity during capture is a useful tool for predicting mortality or tertiary sub-lethal consequences. Fisheries management should consider exercise during cap- ture for sharks when developing techniques to avoid by-catch or reduce physiological stress associated with capture

Hypothesis Testing and Power Calculations for Taxonomic-Based Human Microbiome Data

This paper presents new biostatistical methods for the analysis of microbiome data based on a fully parametric approach using all the data. The Dirichlet-multinomial distribution allows the analyst to calculate power and sample sizes for experimental design, perform tests of hypotheses (e.g., compare microbiomes across groups), and to estimate parameters describing microbiome properties. The use of a fully parametric model for these data has the benefit over alternative non-parametric approaches such as bootstrapping and permutation testing, in that this model is able to retain more information contained in the data. This paper details the statistical approaches for several tests of hypothesis and power/sample size calculations, and applies them for illustration to taxonomic abundance distribution and rank abundance distribution data using HMP Jumpstart data on 24 subjects for saliva, subgingival, and supragingival samples. Software for running these analyses is available

Topological Conformal Gravity in Four Dimensions

In this paper, we present a new formulation of topological conformal gravity in four dimensions. Such a theory was first considered by Witten as a possible gravitational counterpart of topological Yang-Mills theory, but several problems left it incomplete. The key in our approach is to realise a theory which describes deformations of conformally self-dual gravitational instantons. We first identify the appropriate elliptic complex which does precisely this. By applying the Atiyah-Singer index theorem, we calculate the number of independent deformations of a given gravitational instanton which preserve its self-duality. We then quantise topological conformal gravity by BRST gauge-fixing, and discover how the quantum theory is naturally described by the above complex. Indeed, it is a process which closely parallels that of the Yang-Mills theory, and we show how the partition function generates an uncanny gravitational analogue of the first Donaldson invariant.Comment: 35 pages, harvmac, DAMTP R92/4

Validation of a portable, waterproof blood pH analyser for elasmobranchs

Quantifying changes in blood chemistry in elasmobranchs can provide insights into the physiological insults caused by anthropogenic stress, and can ultimately inform conservation and management strategies. Current methods for analysing elasmobranch blood chemistry in the field are often costly and logistically challenging. We compared blood pH values measured using a portable, waterproof pH meter (Hanna Instruments HI 99161) with blood pH values measured by an i- STAT system (CG4+ cartridges), which was previously validated for teleost and elasmobranch fishes, to gauge the accuracy of the pH meter in determining whole blood pH for the Cuban dogfish (Squalus cubensis) and lemon shark (Negaprion brevirostris). There was a significant linear relationship between values derived via the pH meter and the i- STAT for both species across a wide range of pH values and temperatures (Cuban dogfish: 6.8-7.1 pH 24-30 degrees C; lemon sharks: 7.0-7.45 pH 25-31 degrees C). The relative error in the pH meter's measurements was similar to +/- 2.7%. Using this device with appropriate correction factors and consideration of calibration temperatures can result in both a rapid and accurate assessment of whole blood pH, at least for the two elasmobranch species examined here. Additional species should be examined in the future across a wide range of temperatures to determine whether correction factors are universal