The extent of population genetic subdivision differs among four co-distributed shark species in the Indo-Australian archipelago

Background: The territorial fishing zones of Australia and Indonesia are contiguous to the north of Australia in the Timor and Arafura Seas and in the Indian Ocean to the north of Christmas Island. The area surrounding the shared boundary consists of a variety of bio-diverse marine habitats including shallow continental shelf waters, oceanic trenches and numerous offshore islands. Both countries exploit a variety of fisheries species, including whaler (Carcharhinus spp.) and hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna spp.). Despite their differences in social and financial arrangements, the two countries are motivated to develop complementary co-management practices to achieve resource sustainability. An essential starting point is knowledge of the degree of population subdivision, and hence fisheries stock status, in exploited species. Results: Populations of four commercially harvested shark species (Carcharhinus obscurus, Carcharhinus sorrah, Prionace glauca, Sphyrna lewini) were sampled from northern Australia and central Indonesia. Neutral genetic markers (mitochondrial DNA control region sequence and allelic variation at co-dominant microsatellite loci) revealed genetic subdivision between Australian and Indonesian populations of C. sorrah. Further research is needed to address the possibility of genetic subdivision among C. obscurus populations. There was no evidence of genetic subdivision for P. glauca and S. lewini populations, but the sampling represented a relatively small part of their distributional range. For these species, more detailed analyses of population genetic structure is recommended in the future. Conclusion: Cooperative management between Australia and Indonesia is the best option at present for P. glauca and S. lewini, while C. sorrah and C. obscurus should be managed independently. On-going research on these and other exploited shark and ray species is strongly recommended. Biological and ecological similarity between species may not be a predictor of population genetic structure, so species-specific studies are recommended to provide new data to assist with sustainable fisheries management

Governing community-based natural resource management in Australia: international implications

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) has grown in stature as a key component of many national natural resource and rural development governance systems. Despite their growth, the integrity of CBNRM governance systems has rarely been analysed in a national context. To enhance dialogue about how best to design and deploy such systems nationally, this paper analyses the Australian system in detail. The Australian system was selected because the nation has a globally recognised and strong history of CBNRM approaches. We first contextualise the international emergence of national CBRM governance systems before analysing the Australian system. We find that a theoretically informed approach recognising regions as the anchors in brokering multi-scale CBNRM was applied between 2000 and 2007. Subsequent policy, while strengthening indigenous roles, has tended to weaken regional brokering, Commonwealth–state cooperation and research collaboration. Our findings and consequent emerging lessons can inform Australian policy makers and other nations looking to establish (or to reform existing) CBNRM governance systems. Equally, the research approach taken represents the application of an emerging new theoretical framework for analysing complex governance systems

Social-ecological drivers of fleet behaviour and evidence of illegal fishing

UIDB/04647/2020 UIDP/04647/2020Managing the footprint of highly mobile fishing fleets is increasingly important due to continuing declines in fish populations. However, social-ecological drivers for fisher behaviour remain poorly understood for many fleets globally. Using the Sri Lankan fleet as a case study, we explored the role of social, environmental and policy drivers of effort distribution and illegal fishing. We used semi-structured interviews and participatory mapping with 95 fishers, combined with explanatory modelling (GLM) and multivariate statistics, including principal component analysis (PCA). Our findings highlighted the broad footprint (~3,800,000 km2) of this fleet, with fishing effort expended in high seas (53.9%), domestic (40.9%) and, illegally, in foreign waters (5.2%). Twenty-six per cent of fishers directly admitted to fishing illegally in foreign waters during interviews, whereas 62% of fishers indicated doing so during participatory mapping. GLMs explained underlying decisions of where to fish (36% of the total deviance in effort distribution) as a function of social variables (14%), notably distance from landing sites (13%), and environmental variables (11%), notably sea surface temperature (10%). Multivariate analysis revealed that individual fisher characteristics associated with illegal fishing, such as a level of reliance on sharks, vary across the fleet. The analysis of qualitative data suggested that the influence of interpersonal and community social networks and perceptions of higher catch value, particularly of sharks, may be important. Our approach demonstrated the utility of mixed methods research, including the collection of qualitative data, for creating a detailed understanding of spatial behaviour, including decisions of whether to fish illegally. Results highlighted the importance of adopting a social-ecological lens to investigate drivers for human behaviour and non-compliance with rules. We advocate for a nuanced approach to monitoring and managing of fleets, including investigating localised social drivers for illegal fishing and enhancing regional transparency in fleet monitoring. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.publishersversionpublishe

Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods

Understanding hydrological model predictive capabilities under contrasting climate conditions enables more robust decision making. Using Differential Split Sample Testing (DSST), we analyze the performance of six hydrological models for 37 Irish catchments under climate conditions unlike those used for model training. Additionally, we consider four ensemble averaging techniques when examining interperiod transferability. DSST is conducted using 2/3 year noncontinuous blocks of (i) the wettest/driest years on record based on precipitation totals and (ii) years with a more/less pronounced seasonal precipitation regime. Model transferability between contrasting regimes was found to vary depending on the testing scenario, catchment, and evaluation criteria considered. As expected, the ensemble average outperformed most individual ensemble members. However, averaging techniques differed considerably in the number of times they surpassed the best individual model member. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and the Granger-Ramanathan Averaging (GRA) method were found to outperform the simple arithmetic mean (SAM) and Akaike Information Criteria Averaging (AICA). Here GRA performed better than the best individual model in 51%–86% of cases (according to the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion). When assessing model predictive skill under climate change conditions we recommend (i) setting up DSST to select the best available analogues of expected annual mean and seasonal climate conditions; (ii) applying multiple performance criteria; (iii) testing transferability using a diverse set of catchments; and (iv) using a multimodel ensemble in conjunction with an appropriate averaging technique. Given the computational efficiency and performance of GRA relative to BMA, the former is recommended as the preferred ensemble averaging technique for climate assessment

Using a scenario-neutral framework to avoid potential maladaptation to future flood risk

This study develops a coherent framework to detect those catchment types associated with ahigh risk of maladaptation to futureflood risk. Using the“scenario‐neutral”approach to impactassessment the sensitivity of Irish catchments tofluvialflooding is examined in the context of nationalclimate change allowances. A predefined sensitivity domain is used to quantifyflood responses to +2 °Cmean annual temperature with incremental changes in the seasonality and mean of the annual precipitationcycle. The magnitude of the 20‐yearflood is simulated at each increment using two rainfall‐runoff models(GR4J, NAM), then concatenated as response surfaces for 35 sample catchments. A typology of catchmentsensitivity is developed using clustering and discriminant analysis of physical attributes. The same attributesare used to classify 215 ungauged/data‐sparse catchments. To address possible redundancies, the exposure ofdifferent catchment types to projected climate is established using an objectively selected subset of theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble. Hydrological model uncertainty is shown tosignificantly influence sensitivity and have a greater effect than ensemble bias. A nationalflood riskallowance of 20%, considering all 215 catchments is shown to afford protection against ~48% to 98% of theuncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 subset (Representative ConcentrationPathway 8.5; 2070–2099), irrespective of hydrological model and catchment type. However, results indicatethat assuming a standard national or regional allowance could lead to local over/under adaptation. Herein,catchments with relatively less storage are sensitive to seasonal amplification in the annual cycle ofprecipitation and warrant special attention

Downregulation in GATA4 and Downstream Structural and Contractile Genes in the db/db Mouse Heart

Reduced expression of GATA4, a transcriptional factor for structural and cardioprotective genes, has been proposed as a factor contributing to the development of cardiomyopathy. We investigated whether the reduction of cardiac GATA4 expression reported in diabetes alters the expression of downstream genes, namely, atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), B-type natriuretic, peptide (BNP), and α- and β-myosin heavy chain (MHC). db/db mice, a model of type 2 diabetes, with lean littermates serving as controls, were studied. db/db mice exhibited obesity, hyperglycemia, and reduced protein expression of cardiac GLUT4 and IRAP (insulin-regulated aminopeptidase), the structural protein cosecreted with GLUT4. Hearts from db/db mice had reduced protein expression of GATA4 (~35%) with accompanying reductions in mRNA expression of ANP (~40%), BNP (~85%), and α-MHC mRNA (~50%) whereas expression of β-MHC mRNA was increased by ~60%. Low GATA4 was not explained by an increased ligase or atrogin1 expression. CHIP protein content was modestly downregulated (27%) in db/db mice whereas mRNA and protein expression of the CHIP cochaperone HSP70 was significantly decreased in db/db hearts. Our results indicate that low GATA4 in db/db mouse heart is accompanied by reduced expression of GATA4-regulated cardioprotective and structural genes, which may explain the development of cardiomyopathy in diabetes

Irish droughts in newspaper archives: rediscovering forgotten hazards?

Irish newspaper collections are a rich source of information on historical droughts. Following a search of 250 years of such archives, this paper brings to light four newspaper articles describing three drought events that convey the cultural impacts and unusual societal responses to nineteenth century drought in Ireland. Amongst the archives we find two poems from 1806 and 1893, a call to pray for rain in 1887, and a suggestion for weather modification in 1893. These records demonstrate that, contrary to recent experience, Ireland is surprisingly prone to drought

An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry spell and wet spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p = 0.125) of a 5-year dry spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions

Understanding Persistent Non-compliance in a Remote, Large-Scale Marine Protected Area

UIDB/04647/2020 UIDP/04647/2020Area coverage of large-scale marine protected areas (MPAs) (LSMPAs, > 100,000 km2) is rapidly increasing globally. Their effectiveness largely depends on successful detection and management of non-compliance. However, for LSMPAs this can be difficult due to their large size, often remote locations and a lack of understanding of the social drivers of non-compliance. Taking a case-study approach, we review current knowledge of illegal fishing within the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) LSMPA. Data stemming from enforcement reports (2010–20), and from fieldwork in fishing communities (2018–19) were combined to explore and characterise drivers of non-compliance. Enforcement data included vessel investigation reports (n = 188), transcripts of arrests (20) and catch seizures (58). Fieldwork data included fisher interviews (95) and focus groups (12), conducted in two communities in Sri Lanka previously associated with non-compliance in BIOT LSMPA. From 2010 to 2020, there were 126 vessels suspected of non-compliance, 76% of which were Sri Lankan. The majority of non-compliant vessels targeted sharks (97%), catching an estimated 14,340 individuals during the study period. Sri Lankan vessels were primarily registered to one district (77%) and 85% operated from just two ports within the fieldwork sites. Social Network Analysis (SNA) showed that 66% of non-compliant vessels were linked by social ties, including sharing crew members, compared with only 34% of compliant vessels. Thematic analysis of qualitative data suggested that perceptions of higher populations of sharks and social ties between vessels may both be important drivers. We discuss our findings within a global context to identify potential solutions for LSMPA management.publishersversionpublishe

Multi-century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records

Globally, few precipitation records extend to the 18th century. The England Wales Precipitation (EWP) series is a notable exception with continuous monthly records from 1766. EWP has found widespread use across diverse fields of research including trend detection, evaluation of climate model simulations, as a proxy for mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, a predictor in long-term European gridded precipitation data sets, the assessment of drought and extremes, tree-ring reconstructions and as a benchmark for other regional series. A key finding from EWP has been the multi-centennial trends towards wetter winters and drier summers. We statistically reconstruct seasonal EWP using independent, quality-assured temperature, pressure and circulation indices. Using a sleet and snow series for the UK derived by Profs. Gordon Manley and Elizabeth Shaw to examine winter reconstructions, we show that precipitation totals for pre-1870 winters are likely biased low due to gauge under-catch of snowfall and a higher incidence of snowfall during this period. When these factors are accounted for in our reconstructions, the observed trend to wetter winters in EWP is no longer evident. For summer, we find that pre-1820 precipitation totals are too high, likely due to decreasing network density and less certain data at key stations. A significant trend to drier summers is not robustly present in our reconstructions of the EWP series. While our findings are more certain for winter than summer, we highlight (a) that extreme caution should be exercised when using EWP to make inferences about multi-centennial trends, and; (b) that assessments of 18th and 19th Century winter precipitation should be aware of potential snow biases in early records. Our findings underline the importance of continual re-appraisal of established long-term climate data sets as new evidence becomes available. It is also likely that the identified biases in winter EWP have distorted many other long-term European precipitation series