Considerations of high altitude emissions

The status of the Federal Aviation Administration's High Altitude Pollution Program is described which was instituted to develop the detailed quantitative information needed to judge whether or not regulatory action to limit such exhaust emissions would be necessary. The complexities of this question and the nature and magnitude of uncertainties still present in our scientific understanding of the potential interactions between aircraft exhaust emissions and stratospheric ozone and climate are reviewed. The direction and scope of future Federal and international activities are described

PASS-GLM: polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for scalable Bayesian GLM inference

Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent estimates of uncertainty, incorporation of prior information, and sharing of power across experiments via hierarchical models. In practice, however, the approximate Bayesian methods necessary for inference have either failed to scale to large data sets or failed to provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of inference. We propose a new approach based on constructing polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs (PASS-GLM). We demonstrate that our method admits a simple algorithm as well as trivial streaming and distributed extensions that do not compound error across computations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of point (MAP) estimates, the approximate posterior, and posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. We validate our approach empirically in the case of logistic regression using a quadratic approximation and show competitive performance with stochastic gradient descent, MCMC, and the Laplace approximation in terms of speed and multiple measures of accuracy -- including on an advertising data set with 40 million data points and 20,000 covariates.Comment: In Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2017). v3: corrected typos in Appendix

Theory of the electronic structure of dilute bismide and bismide-nitride alloys of GaAs: Tight-binding and k.p models

The addition of dilute concentrations of bismuth (Bi) into GaAs to form GaBiAs alloys results in a large reduction of the band gap energy Eg accompanied by a significant increase of the spin-orbit-splitting energy (delta_SO), leading to an Eg < delta_SO regime for ~10% Bi composition which is technologically relevant for the design of highly efficient photonic devices. The quaternary alloy GaBiNAs offers further flexibility for band gap tuning, because both nitrogen and bismuth can independently induce band gap reduction. This work reports sp3s* tight binding and 14-band k.p models for the study of the electronic structure of GaBiAs and GaBiNAs alloys. Our results are in good agreement with the available experimental data.Comment: 2 pages, 1 figur

Truncated Random Measures

Completely random measures (CRMs) and their normalizations are a rich source of Bayesian nonparametric priors. Examples include the beta, gamma, and Dirichlet processes. In this paper we detail two major classes of sequential CRM representations---series representations and superposition representations---within which we organize both novel and existing sequential representations that can be used for simulation and posterior inference. These two classes and their constituent representations subsume existing ones that have previously been developed in an ad hoc manner for specific processes. Since a complete infinite-dimensional CRM cannot be used explicitly for computation, sequential representations are often truncated for tractability. We provide truncation error analyses for each type of sequential representation, as well as their normalized versions, thereby generalizing and improving upon existing truncation error bounds in the literature. We analyze the computational complexity of the sequential representations, which in conjunction with our error bounds allows us to directly compare representations and discuss their relative efficiency. We include numerous applications of our theoretical results to commonly-used (normalized) CRMs, demonstrating that our results enable a straightforward representation and analysis of CRMs that has not previously been available in a Bayesian nonparametric context.Comment: To appear in Bernoulli; 58 pages, 3 figure

Theory and design of Inx_{x}Ga1−x_{1-x}As1−y_{1-y}Biy_{y} mid-infrared semiconductor lasers: type-I quantum wells for emission beyond 3 μ\mum on InP substrates

We present a theoretical analysis and optimisation of the properties and performance of mid-infrared semiconductor lasers based on the dilute bismide alloy In$_{x}$Ga$_{1-x}$As$_{1-y}$Bi$_{y}$, grown on conventional (001) InP substrates. The ability to independently vary the epitaxial strain and emission wavelength in this quaternary alloy provides significant scope for band structure engineering. Our calculations demonstrate that structures based on compressively strained In$_{x}$Ga$_{1-x}$As$_{1-y}$Bi$_{y}$ quantum wells (QWs) can readily achieve emission wavelengths in the 3 -- 5 $\mu$m range, and that these QWs have large type-I band offsets. As such, these structures have the potential to overcome a number of limitations commonly associated with this application-rich but technologically challenging wavelength range. By considering structures having (i) fixed QW thickness and variable strain, and (ii) fixed strain and variable QW thickness, we quantify key trends in the properties and performance as functions of the alloy composition, structural properties, and emission wavelength, and on this basis identify routes towards the realisation of optimised devices for practical applications. Our analysis suggests that simple laser structures -- incorporating In$_{x}$Ga$_{1-x}$As$_{1-y}$Bi$_{y}$ QWs and unstrained ternary In$_{0.53}$Ga$_{0.47}$As barriers -- which are compatible with established epitaxial growth, provide a route to realising InP-based mid-infrared diode lasers.Comment: Submitted versio

Novel applications of fibre tapers

In this talk we will discuss new applications for fibre tapers ranging from femtosecond pulse manipulation to optical clock generation in micro-coil resonators. Fundamental to these interactions is the enhanced nonlinearity arising from the smaller cores making compact optical devices possible

'What you look like is such a big factor': interviews with adolescent girls about the appearance culture in an all-girls' school

High school is a key venue for the development and expression of body image concerns in adolescent girls. Researchers have begun to investigate the role of school-based ‘appearance cultures’ in magnifying the body image concerns of students. To date, however, no research has examined girls’ experience as participants within these cultures, and thus the opportunity to learn how girls account for the development and maintenance of these cultures has been missed. In interviews with nine girls attending an all-girls’ school, the existence of a strong ‘appearance culture’ in the school was identified as a major influence on the body image concerns of students. Girls talked about the ways in which appearance-focused conversations, dieting, and weight monitoring occurred as part of the everyday interaction with friends and peers at school. They also identified many ways in which their school attempted to address body image concerns, although these attempts were often portrayed as ineffective, if not counter-productive. These findings suggest that attempts to address the body image concerns of students will need to be sensitive to the lived reality of appearance cultures within schools

Masses of Nearby Supermassive Black Holes with Very-Long Baseline Interferometry

Dynamical mass measurements to date have allowed determinations of the mass M and the distance D of a number of nearby supermassive black holes. In the case of Sgr A*, these measurements are limited by a strong correlation between the mass and distance scaling roughly as M ~ D^2. Future very-long baseline interferometric (VLBI) observations will image a bright and narrow ring surrounding the shadow of a supermassive black hole, if its accretion flow is optically thin. In this paper, we explore the prospects of reducing the correlation between mass and distance with the combination of dynamical measurements and VLBI imaging of the ring of Sgr A*. We estimate the signal to noise ratio of near-future VLBI arrays that consist of five to six stations, and we simulate measurements of the mass and distance of Sgr A* using the expected size of the ring image and existing stellar ephemerides. We demonstrate that, in this best-case scenario, VLBI observations at 1 mm can improve the error on the mass by a factor of about two compared to the results from the monitoring of stellar orbits alone. We identify the additional sources of uncertainty that such imaging observations have to take into account. In addition, we calculate the angular diameters of the bright rings of other nearby supermassive black holes and identify the optimal targets besides Sgr A* that could be imaged by a ground-based VLBI array or future space-VLBI missions allowing for refined mass measurements.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, refereed version, accepted for publication in Ap