Probabilistic abductive logic programming using Dirichlet priors

Probabilistic programming is an area of research that aims to develop general inference algorithms for probabilistic models expressed as probabilistic programs whose execution corresponds to inferring the parameters of those models. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic programming language (PPL) based on abductive logic programming for performing inference in probabilistic models involving categorical distributions with Dirichlet priors. We encode these models as abductive logic programs enriched with probabilistic definitions and queries, and show how to execute and compile them to boolean formulas. Using the latter, we perform generalized inference using one of two proposed Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms: an adaptation of uncollapsed Gibbs sampling from related work and a novel collapsed Gibbs sampling (CGS). We show that CGS converges faster than the uncollapsed version on a latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) task using synthetic data. On similar data, we compare our PPL with LDA-specific algorithms and other PPLs. We find that all methods, except one, perform similarly and that the more expressive the PPL, the slower it is. We illustrate applications of our PPL on real data in two variants of LDA models (Seed and Cluster LDA), and in the repeated insertion model (RIM). In the latter, our PPL yields similar conclusions to inference with EM for Mallows models

"Microscopic" approach to the Ricci dark energy

A derivation of the Ricci dark energy from quantum field theory of fluctuating "matter" fields in a classical gravitational background is presented. The coupling to the dark energy, the parameter 'a', is estimated in the framework of our formalism, and qualitatively it appears to be within observational expectations.Comment: 7 page

BRST QUANTIZATION OF NON-ABELIAN BF TOPOLOGICAL THEORIES

The off-shell nilpotent BRST charge and the BRST invariant effective action for non-abelian BF topological theories over D-dimensional manifolds are explicitly constructed. These theories have the feature of being reducible with exactly D-3 stages of reducibility. The adequate extended phase space including the different levels of ghosts for ghosts is explicitly obtained. Using the structure of the resulting BRST charge we show that for topological BF theories the semi-classical approximation completely describes the quantum theory. The independence of the partition function on the metric also follows from our explicit construction in a straightforward way.Comment: 13 pages, amste

SCORE performance in Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union: MONICA and HAPIEE results

Aims: The Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) scale assesses 10 year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk SCORE version is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), but its performance has never been systematically assessed in the region. We evaluated SCORE performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts. Methods and results: The cohorts based on the World Health Organization MONitoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease (MONICA) surveys in the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s. The Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002–05. In Cox regression analyses, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline significantly predicted CVD mortality in both MONICA [n = 15 027; hazard ratios (HR), 1.7–6.3] and HAPIEE (n = 20 517; HR, 2.6–10.5) samples. While SCORE calibration was good in most MONICA samples (predicted and observed mortality were close), the risk was underestimated in Russia. In HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE overpredicted the estimated 10 year mortality for Czech and Polish samples and adequately predicted it for Russia. SCORE discrimination was satisfactory in both MONICA and HAPIEE. Conclusion: The high-risk SCORE underestimated the fatal CVD risk in Russian MONICA but performed well in most MONICA samples and Russian HAPIEE. This SCORE version might overestimate the risk in contemporary Czech and Polish populations

Cross-shell excitation in two-proton knockout: Structure of 52^{52}Ca

The two-proton knockout reaction $^9$Be($^{54}$Ti,$^{52}$Ca$+ \gamma$) has been studied at 72 MeV/nucleon. Besides the strong feeding of the $^{52}$Ca ground state, the only other sizeable cross section proceeds to a 3$^-$ level at 3.9 MeV. There is no measurable direct yield to the first excited 2$^+$ state at 2.6 MeV. The results illustrate the potential of such direct reactions for exploring cross-shell proton excitations in neutron-rich nuclei and confirms the doubly-magic nature of $^{52}$Ca

Formalization model of expert knowledge about a technical index level of engineering products

The authors set a timely problem that concerns development of decision making models, which allow formalizing expert subjective ideas about technical index level of engineering products. The authors proposed a formalization model of expert knowledge about technical index level of engineering products on the basis of fuzzy sets. The model has a method of membership-function construction for linguistic variable terms on the basis of exponential functions

Nature of yrast excitations near N=40: Level structure of Ni-67

Excited states in Ni-67 were populated in deep-inelastic reactions of a Ni-64 beam at 430 MeV on a thick U-238 target. A level scheme built on the previously known 13 micro-s isomer has been delineated up to an excitation energy of ~5.3 MeV and a tentative spin and parity of (21/2-). Shell model calculations have been carried out using two effective interactions in the f5/2pg9/2 model space with a Ni-56 core. Satisfactory agreement between experiment and theory is achieved for the measured transition energies and branching ratios. The calculations indicate that the yrast states are associated with rather complex configurations, herewith demonstrating the relative weakness of the N=40 subshell gap and the importance of multi particle-hole excitations involving the g9/2 neutron orbital.Comment: Accepted by Physical Review

What does fake look like? A review of the literature on intentional deception in the news and on social media

This paper focuses on the content features of intentional deceptive information in the news (i.e., fake news) and on social media. Based on an extensive review of relevant literature (i.e., political journalism and communication, computational linguistics), we take stock of existing knowledge and present an overview of the structural characteristics that are indicative of intentionally deceptive information. We discuss the strength of underlying empirical evidence and identify underdeveloped areas of research. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the systematic study of intentional deception in the news and on social media and to help setting up new lines of research in which intentionally deceptive news items can be operationalized in consistent ways