Energy Access and Electricity Planning

As developing countries look for ways to achieve sustainable energy services, which is essential to lift people out of poverty, the big challenge centers around providing access for all while avoiding past pitfalls without creating new ones. The reality is that this can only occur if there is a fundamental transformation of energy systems along the entire set of resource to energy service chains - and that will necessitate greater energy efficiency and a bigger role for renewables in the global energy mix energy. Competitive and private sector dominated energy markets rely on clear and consistent government energy-environment policies to align their investment decisions with sustainable development objectives. This paper tries to shed light on how developing countries can carry out energy planning by reviewing the available methodologies and tools, including their potential to integrate rural energy access and encourage the uptake of renewable energy technologies. It also probes how investment needs and cost-effectiveness are reflected in different analytic and planning tools - with a case study on Ethiopia. And it examines the interaction of energy planning and scenario development and how these are applied to informed policy making. The findings suggest that energy planning is essential and feasible. However, support is required to improve data collection and access, develop open accessible modelling tools, and build sustainable national capacity to undertake plannin

The role of bioenergy for global deep decarbonisation: CO 2 removal or low‐carbon energy?

Bioenergy is expected to have a prominent role in limiting global greenhouse emissions to meet the climate change target of the Paris Agreement. Many studies identify negative emissions from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as its key contribution, but assume that no other CO2 removal technologies are available. We use a global integrated assessment model, TIAM‐UCL, to investigate the role of bioenergy within the global energy system when direct air capture and afforestation are available as cost‐competitive alternatives to BECCS. We find that the presence of other CO2 removal technologies does not reduce the pressure on biomass resources but changes the use of bioenergy for climate mitigation. While we confirm that when available BECCS offers cheaper decarbonisation pathways, we also find that its use delays the phase‐out of unabated fossil fuels in industry and transport. Further, it displaces renewable electricity generation, potentially increasing the likelihood of missing the Paris Agreement target. We found that the most cost‐effective solution is to invest in a basket of CO2 removal technologies. However, if these technologies rely on CCS, then urgent action is required to ramp up the necessary infrastructure. We conclude that a sustainable biomass supply is critical for decarbonising the global energy system. Since only a few world regions carry the burden of producing the biomass resource and store CO2 in geological storage, adequate international collaboration, policies, and standards will be needed to realise this resource while avoiding undesired land‐use change

Techno-economic demand projections and scenarios for the Bolivian energy system

Increasing energy access in emerging economies has played an important role to maintain or achieve desirable social and economic development targets. As a consequence, the growing energy requirements need policy instruments to ensure energy supply for future generations. The literature reports many studies with different approaches to model and test policy measures in the energy sector, however few energy-related studies for Bolivia are available. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, representing the first national level energy demand model and projections for Bolivia. The model use demographic, economic, technology and policy trends with a pragmatic model structure that combines bottom-up and top-down modelling. The scenario analysis has a particular focus on alternatives for energy savings, energy mix diversification and air quality. Three scenarios were analysed: Energy Savings, Fuel Substitution and the aggregate effects in a Combined scenario. The reference scenario results show the overall energy consumption grows 134% in 2035 compared to 2012 with an annual average growth of 3.8%. The final energy demand in the energy savings scenario is 8.5% lower than the Reference scenario, 1.5% lower in the fuel substitution scenario and 9.4% lower in the combined Scenario. The aggregate impact of both energy savings and fuel substitution measures leads to potential avoided emissions of 25.84 million Tons of CO2 equivalent in the model horizon 2012-2035

Lost learnings: Breaking the silence of failure in the energy and development sector

It is often said that in order to succeed, one most fail and yet, all too often, we fail to talk about failure. This is particularly true in energy and development (E&D), a sector that faces complex challenges leading to relatively high chances of project failure. This paper explores failure in E&D, specifically how it is discussed, its impact and mechanisms encourage discussion of failure. This was achieved through a review of academic literature, workshops and informal interviews, and is the first study to holistically examine the important topic of failure in E&D. The results show that failure is complex and linked to multiple factors. There is an important distinction to be made between “productive failures”, where new learnings are assimilated and shared, and “unproductive failures”, where this does not happen. Although failed projects consume scarce resources, reduce the productivity of the sector and increase the perceived risk of future projects, we argue that failure is a necessary part of experimentation and risk taking that generates new knowledge and important learnings. Changes to the nature of funding in the sector, compulsory project or research registration, open-source reporting on productive failure and networks that provide safe spaces for peer-to-peer learning could improve openness about failure. These mechanisms could increase the likelihood of future project success and accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 7

Biological Records Centre Annual Report 2005-2006

The period covered by this report is the first year of a new six-year partnership between CEH and JNCC. For this period, there is increased emphasis on targeted survey, on analysis and interpretation and on communications and outreach. These activities were always part of BRC’s work, but they have been given greater prominence as a result of rapid developments in information technology. Data are increasingly reaching BRC in electronic form, so that the effort of data entry and collation is reduced. The data, collected by many volunteers and then collated and analysed at BRC, document the changing status and distribution of plants and animals in Britain. Distribution maps are published in atlases and are available via the internet through the NBN Gateway. The effects of change or loss of habitats, the influence of climate change and the consequences of changing water quality are all examples of the environmental factors that affect our biodiversity and which BRC aims to document and understand. The results are vital for developing environmental policies, to support conservation, and for fundamental ecological research. BRC is funded jointly by JNCC and NERC through a partnership based on a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA). The partnership started in 1973 when the Nature Conservancy was divided to form the successor bodies Nature Conservancy Council (NCC) and Institute of Terrestrial Ecology (ITE). NCC was in turn divided further to form JNCC and three Country Agencies, while ITE was merged with other NERC units to form CEH. Through all these changes, the partnership has been maintained. A six-year memorandum of agreement ended on 31 January 2005 (Hill et al. 2005). The present report covers the first full year, 2005-6, of the new agreement for 2005-2010. Rapid progress in information technology continues to be highly beneficial for BRC, whose data are increasingly used by the UK country conservation agencies, environmental consultants, NGOs, research workers, policy makers and volunteers. It is gratifying to know that, through our ability to display data on the National Biodiversity Network (NBN) Gateway, some of our data suppliers now have immediate access to their own data in a convenient form. The year 2005-6 has been one of steady progress, with new datasets added to BRC, substantial additions to existing data, and improved communication with the NBN Gateway. The most high profile activity of the year has been the Harlequin Ladybird Survey, which has enabled us to observe the early stages of colonization by a mobile insect in greater detail than has been possible in any previous case

Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning

Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia’s energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country’s electricity needs during 2015–2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country’s exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD

Energy system development pathways for Ethiopia: Final project report

This report forms a deliverable of the Energy System Development Pathways for Ethiopia (PATHWAYS) project. The project explored pathways for Ethiopia’s electricity system to 2065 with the use of open-source energy system models, and developed local capacity to use and build on those models for the country’s energy planning and policy decision-support. A participatory methodology was adopted, which engaged local experts and stakeholders in the co-creation of knowledge, through multiple and mixed methods of inquiry typically adopted in fields of engineering and the social sciences. Some of these engagement activities included workshops and interviews that drew upon local expertise to shape the narratives and boundaries on the possible futures for Ethiopia’s electricity system, as well as a household survey on energy consumer behaviour. In addition, capacity development workshops were conducted; training students, academics, and staff of the government, not-for-profit and the private sector on the use of the Open-Source Energy System Modelling framework (OSeMOSYS). This report provides the synthesised findings of the project and highlights ways of building on its activities

The pathway to net zero heating in the UK

This is the final version. Available from UKERC via the DOI in this record. The heating of homes is a major contributor to the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions accounting for 13% of total emissions.  This is comparable to the carbon emissions of all petrol and diesel cars in the UK. 2 Meeting the UK government’s net zero emissions goal for 2050 will only be possible by complete decarbonisation of the building stock (both existing and new). While emissions from heating have fallen by 11% since 1990, much of which was driven by efficiency programmes and regulation in the period 2002-2012 3, continuing decarbonisation at this pace would get us to zero emissions from buildings in 235 years and fall far short of meeting the 2050 target

Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years

Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years