EU-WIDE FARM TYPES SUPPLY IN CAPRI - HOW TO CONSISTENTLY DISAGGREGATE SECTOR MODELS INTO FARM TYPE MODEL

EU-wide farm supply analysis, highest posterior density estimator, CAPRI, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

EU-wide Distributional Effects of EU Direct Payments Harmonization analyzed with CAPRI

We argue in this paper that available econometric estimates of farmers’ risk aversion do not measure true farmers’ preferences towards risky outcomes. Available analyses are mostly of static nature and indeed measure the parameters of the synthetic optimal value function rather than the deep parameters of the utility functions. We derive analytical and empirical results in a simple dynamic and stochastic framework showing that that there is not a simple relationship between utility functions and value functions when agents have many decision variables. In particular we find that the value function does not necessarily exhibit DARA when the instantaneous utility function satisfies DARA and conversely. We recommend performing dynamic econometric estimation with at least farm production and consumption data.distributional effects, SPS, flat-rate payment, CAP reform, farm level model, CAPRI farm type layer, International Relations/Trade, Q11, Q12, Q18,

Impact of Agricultural and Trade Policy Reform on land-use within the EU

Land Economics/Use,

Farm level policy scenario analysis

This study presents a quantitative policy impact analysis of alternative policy and macroeconomic assumptions in the agricultural farming sector. Three scenarios are considered: direct payment scenario, macroeconomic environment scenario and WTO scenario. We apply the CAPRI-Farm model, an extension of CAPRI which disaggregates the standard Nuts2 regional resolution of the supply models in CAPRI further to farm type models, capturing farm heterogeneity in terms of farm specialization and farm size across all EU regions and MS. The advantage of the CAPRI-Farm model compared to other similar models is that it represents comprehensively all major farm types in the EU and it links farm level behaviour with output and input market price responses. The direct payment scenario assumes equalisation of decoupled payments - a regional flat-rate scheme - at the Nuts1, MS and EU levels. According to simulation results, the value of re-distributed payments vary strongly between the three flat-rate systems. The value of payments reallocated between farms in the EU increases from 9% (3.7 billion Eur) of the total CAP budget in the Nuts1 scenario to 19% (8.2 billion Eur) in the EU flat-rate scenario. Particularly negatively affected are large- and medium-sized farms and dairies, mixed crops and livestock, general field and mixed cropping, olives, cereals and oilseeds and permanent crops. Small farms tend to be less affected. However, sheep, goats and grazing, the residual farm category and mixed livestock farms realise higher premiums and incomes. The study shows relatively minor allocative market responses and thus small price effects for all three scenarios. The WTO scenario aims to quantify the impact of trade liberalization on farming sector. More precisely, the scenario considers the impact of the proposal made by the chair of the WTO's agriculture negotiations, Ambassador Crawford Falconer. The simulation results show that tariff reduction increases consumer welfare in the EU by 8.5 billion Eur, whereas agricultural income decreases by 6.8 billion Eur (-3%), mainly driven by losses realised in the animal sector. The analyses show sizable impacts on farm income for different farm types. Generally, farm types specialised in livestock production lose the most. The largest negative income effects were observed for cattle, dairying, rearing and fattening, dairy, mixed crops and livestock; and sheep and goat farms. The macroeconomic environment scenario simulates the farm-level effects of a hypothetical economic recovery scenario that may lead to higher GDP growth and higher oil prices. Two shocks are assumed: an increase in the crude oil price by 50% and an annual world GDP growth rate increase by 1% relative to the baseline level. The results indicate that a higher GDP growth causes stronger price and market effects than does the increase in the oil price. With the oil price shock, farmers are affected by two opposing effects: an increase in production costs and an increase in revenues. In most cases, increasing costs dominate such that the overall farm income declines. The effect of higher GDP on income across farm types is generally positive due to the rising demand for agricultural products, which generates an increase in the prices of agricultural commodities. Farmers react to the new macro environment with adjustments of their production leading to an increase in arable land and intensification of crop and animal production activities. Further, a tendency to substitute grassland for arable land can be observed.JRC.DDG.J.5-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Simultaneous Observation of Carrier-Specific Redistribution and Coherent Lattice Dynamics in 2H-MoTe2_{2} with Femtosecond Core-Level Spectroscopy

We employ few-femtosecond extreme ultraviolet (XUV) transient absorption spectroscopy to reveal simultaneously the intra- and interband carrier relaxation and the light-induced structural dynamics in nanoscale thin films of layered 2H-MoTe$_{2}$ semiconductor. By interrogating the valence electronic structure via localized Te 4$\textit{d}$ (39-46 eV) and Mo 4$\textit{p}$ (35-38 eV) core levels, the relaxation of the photoexcited hole distribution is directly observed in real time. We obtain hole thermalization and cooling times of 15$\pm$5 fs and 380$\pm$90 fs, respectively, and an electron-hole recombination time of 1.5$\pm$0.1 ps. Furthermore, excitations of coherent out-of-plane A$_{1g}$ (5.1 THz) and in-plane E$_{1g}$ (3.7 THz) lattice vibrations are visualized through oscillations in the XUV absorption spectra. By comparison to Bethe-Salpeter equation simulations, the spectral changes are mapped to real-space excited-state displacements of the lattice along the dominant A$_{1g}$ coordinate. By directly and simultaneously probing the excited carrier distribution dynamics and accompanying femtosecond lattice displacement in 2H-MoTe$_{2}$ within a single experiment, our work provides a benchmark for understanding the interplay between electronic and structural dynamics in photoexcited nanomaterials

Site-Selective Real-Time Observation of Bimolecular Electron Transfer in a Photocatalytic System Using L-Edge X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Time-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy has been utilized to monitor the bimolecular electron transfer in a photocatalytic water splitting system. This has been possible by uniting the local probe and element specific character of X-ray transitions with insights from high-level ab initio calculations. The specific target has been a heteroleptic [IrIII (ppy)2 (bpy)]+ photosensitizer, in combination with triethylamine as a sacrificial reductant and Fe3(CO)12 as a water reduction catalyst. The relevant molecular transitions have been characterized via high-resolution Ir L-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy on the picosecond time scale and restricted active space self-consistent field calculations. The presented methods and results will enhance our understanding of functionally relevant bimolecular electron transfer reactions and thus will pave the road to rational optimization of photocatalytic performance

Disentangling the Evolution of Electrons and Holes in photoexcited ZnO nanoparticles

The evolution of charge carriers in photoexcited room temperature ZnO nanoparticles in solution is investigated using ultrafast ultraviolet photoluminescence spectroscopy, ultrafast Zn K-edge absorption spectroscopy and ab-initio molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The photoluminescence is excited at 4.66 eV, well above the band edge, and shows that electron cooling in the conduction band and exciton formation occur in <500 fs, in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. The X-ray absorption measurements, obtained upon excitation close to the band edge at 3.49 eV, are sensitive to the migration and trapping of holes. They reveal that the 2 ps transient largely reproduces the previously reported transient obtained at 100 ps time delay in synchrotron studies. In addition, the X-ray absorption signal is found to rise in ~1.4 ps, which we attribute to the diffusion of holes through the lattice prior to their trapping at singly-charged oxygen vacancies. Indeed, the MD simulations show that impulsive trapping of holes induces an ultrafast expansion of the cage of Zn atoms in <200 fs, followed by an oscillatory response at a frequency of ~100 cm-1, which corresponds to a phonon mode of the system involving the Zn sub-lattice