Precision Cosmology? Not Just Yet

The recent announcement from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) satellite experiment combined with other recent advances in observational cosmology verifies key components of the standard cosmological model. However, we argue that there remain some significant open issues regarding the basic history and composition of the Universe and uncertainties in some of the most important parameters.Comment: 2 pages, 2 figures. Online journal version http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/299/5612/153

The Redshift Sensitivities of Dark Energy Surveys

Great uncertainty surrounds dark energy, both in terms of its physics, and the choice of methods by which the problem should be addressed. Here we quantify the redshift sensitivities offered by different techniques. We focus on the three methods most adept at constraining w, namely supernovae, cosmic shear, and baryon oscillations. For each we provide insight into the family of w(z) models which are permitted for a particular constraint on either w=w0 or w=w0+wa(1-a). Our results are in the form of "weight functions", which describe the fitted model parameters as a weighted average over the true functional form. For example, we find the recent best-fit from the Supernovae Legacy Survey (w=-1.023) corresponds to the average value of w(z) over the range 0<z<0.4. Whilst there is a strong dependence on the choice of priors, each cosmological probe displays distinctive characteristics in their redshift sensitivities. In the case of proposed future surveys, a SNAP-like supernova survey probes a mean redshift of z ~ 0.3, with baryon oscillations and cosmic shear at z ~ 0.6. If we consider the evolution of w, sensitivities shift to slightly higher redshift. Finally, we find that the weight functions may be expressed as a weighted average of the popular "principal components".Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, changes reflect published versio

Probing dark energy with cluster counts and cosmic shear power spectra: including the full covariance

(Abridged) Combining cosmic shear power spectra and cluster counts is powerful to improve cosmological parameter constraints and/or test inherent systematics. However they probe the same cosmic mass density field, if the two are drawn from the same survey region, and therefore the combination may be less powerful than first thought. We investigate the cross-covariance between the cosmic shear power spectra and the cluster counts based on the halo model approach, where the cross-covariance arises from the three-point correlations of the underlying mass density field. Fully taking into account the cross-covariance as well as non-Gaussian errors on the lensing power spectrum covariance, we find a significant cross-correlation between the lensing power spectrum signals at multipoles l~10^3 and the cluster counts containing halos with masses M>10^{14}Msun. Including the cross-covariance for the combined measurement degrades and in some cases improves the total signal-to-noise ratios up to plus or minus 20% relative to when the two are independent. For cosmological parameter determination, the cross-covariance has a smaller effect as a result of working in a multi-dimensional parameter space, implying that the two observables can be considered independent to a good approximation. We also discuss that cluster count experiments using lensing-selected mass peaks could be more complementary to cosmic shear tomography than mass-selected cluster counts of the corresponding mass threshold. Using lensing selected clusters with a realistic usable detection threshold (S/N~6 for a ground-based survey), the uncertainty on each dark energy parameter may be roughly halved by the combined experiments, relative to using the power spectra alone.Comment: 32 pages, 15 figures. Revised version, invited original contribution to gravitational lensing focus issue, New Journal of Physic

Dark energy constraints from cosmic shear power spectra: impact of intrinsic alignments on photometric redshift requirements

Cosmic shear constrains cosmology by exploiting the apparent alignments of pairs of galaxies due to gravitational lensing by intervening mass clumps. However galaxies may become (intrinsically) aligned with each other, and with nearby mass clumps, during their formation. This effect needs to be disentangled from the cosmic shear signal to place constraints on cosmology. We use the linear intrinsic alignment model as a base and compare it to an alternative model and data. If intrinsic alignments are ignored then the dark energy equation of state is biased by ~50 per cent. We examine how the number of tomographic redshift bins affects uncertainties on cosmological parameters and find that when intrinsic alignments are included two or more times as many bins are required to obtain 80 per cent of the available information. We investigate how the degradation in the dark energy figure of merit depends on the photometric redshift scatter. Previous studies have shown that lensing does not place stringent requirements on the photometric redshift uncertainty, so long as the uncertainty is well known. However, if intrinsic alignments are included the requirements become a factor of three tighter. These results are quite insensitive to the fraction of catastrophic outliers, assuming that this fraction is well known. We show the effect of uncertainties in photometric redshift bias and scatter. Finally we quantify how priors on the intrinsic alignment model would improve dark energy constraints.Comment: 14 pages and 9 figures. Replaced with final version accepted in "Gravitational Lensing" Focus Issue of the New Journal of Physics at http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1367-2630/9/12/E0

Bayesian analysis of weak gravitational lensing and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich data for six galaxy clusters

We present an analysis of observations made with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) of six galaxy clusters in a redshift range of 0.16--0.41. The cluster gas is modelled using the Sunyaev--Zel'dovich (SZ) data provided by AMI, while the total mass is modelled using the lensing data from the CFHT. In this paper, we: i) find very good agreement between SZ measurements (assuming large-scale virialisation and a gas-fraction prior) and lensing measurements of the total cluster masses out to r_200; ii) perform the first multiple-component weak-lensing analysis of A115; iii) confirm the unusual separation between the gas and mass components in A1914; iv) jointly analyse the SZ and lensing data for the relaxed cluster A611, confirming our use of a simulation-derived mass-temperature relation for parameterizing measurements of the SZ effect.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, 12 tables, published by MNRA

Cosmological parameters from CMB and other data: a Monte-Carlo approach

We present a fast Markov Chain Monte-Carlo exploration of cosmological parameter space. We perform a joint analysis of results from recent CMB experiments and provide parameter constraints, including sigma_8, from the CMB independent of other data. We next combine data from the CMB, HST Key Project, 2dF galaxy redshift survey, supernovae Ia and big-bang nucleosynthesis. The Monte Carlo method allows the rapid investigation of a large number of parameters, and we present results from 6 and 9 parameter analyses of flat models, and an 11 parameter analysis of non-flat models. Our results include constraints on the neutrino mass (m_nu < 0.3eV), equation of state of the dark energy, and the tensor amplitude, as well as demonstrating the effect of additional parameters on the base parameter constraints. In a series of appendices we describe the many uses of importance sampling, including computing results from new data and accuracy correction of results generated from an approximate method. We also discuss the different ways of converting parameter samples to parameter constraints, the effect of the prior, assess the goodness of fit and consistency, and describe the use of analytic marginalization over normalization parameters.Comment: Quintessence results now include perturbations. Changes to match version accepted by PRD. MCMC code and data are available at http://cosmologist.info/cosmomc/ along with a B&W printer-friendly version of the pape

The impact of camera optical alignments on weak lensing measures for the Dark Energy Survey

Telescope Point Spread Function (PSF) quality is critical for realising the potential of cosmic weak lensing observations to constrain dark energy and test General Relativity. In this paper we use quantitative weak gravitational lensing measures to inform the precision of lens optical alignment, with specific reference to the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We compute optics spot diagrams and calculate the shear and flexion of the PSF as a function of position on the focal plane. For perfect optical alignment we verify the high quality of the DES optical design, finding a maximum PSF contribution to the weak lensing shear of 0.04 near the edge of the focal plane. However this can be increased by a factor of approximately three if the lenses are only just aligned within their maximum specified tolerances. We calculate the E and B-mode shear and flexion variance as a function of de-centre or tilt of each lens in turn. We find tilt accuracy to be a few times more important than de-centre, depending on the lens considered. Finally we consider the compound effect of de-centre and tilt of multiple lenses simultaneously, by sampling from a plausible range of values of each parameter. We find that the compound effect can be around twice as detrimental as when considering any one lens alone. Furthermore, this combined effect changes the conclusions about which lens is most important to align accurately. For DES, the tilt of the first two lenses is the most important.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure