Promises under Pressure: Reassurance and Burden-Sharing in Asymmetric Alliances

Great power patrons frequently reassure allies of their protection, whether by stationing troops abroad, visiting allied countries, or making public statements. In the case of the United States, observers and practitioners alike have emphasized the need to instill confidence in U.S. allies. However, allied reassurance is fundamentally puzzling because it gives away a key source of bargaining leverage: the threat of abandonment. Patrons should ideally strive to limit the extent to which they are perceived as committed to allies, lest they encourage allies to free-ride on their protection and contribute little to the common defense. Existing literature tends to either treat reassurance as a secondary effect of deterrence, or to focus on understanding how patrons can reassure their allies rather than why. Studies that do provide explanations for reassurance, for their part, often regard reassurance as strategically suboptimal, and emphasize domestic political factors that drive reassurance. The causes of reassurance are thus poorly understood. I argue that although reassurance can have adverse consequences, patrons have incentives to reassure to the extent that allies have the capacity to exit the alliance. The more credible an ally’s threat to pursue outside options, and the more costs that doing so would impose on the patron, the more reassurance it will receive. Patrons thus face a dilemma, trading off between withholding reassurance to drive hard bargains with allies and reassuring allies to dissuade them from exiting the alliance. This dilemma may be mitigated, however, if a patron can make its assurances conditional on allied burden-sharing by combining its assurances with threats of abandonment. These threats are more potent to the extent that a patron faces domestic pressure to retrench from its foreign commitments, and that allies face severe threat environments. I test the theory using a mixed-method approach that combines statistical analysis of an original dataset on American reassurance and allied burden-sharing between 1950 and 2010 with qualitative historical case studies. In Chapters 1 and 2, I introduce the concepts of alliance reassurance and burden-sharing and review the literature on both concepts. I argue that reassurance is puzzling in light of existing theories of alliance bargaining which stress the threat of abandonment as a source of leverage. The “reassurance dilemma” that patrons face, however, is that withholding reassurance may encourage allies to distance themselves from the alliance and seek outside options. In Chapter 3, I present a theory of bargaining leverage in asymmetric alliances in order to identify the conditions under which this dilemma is most severe—and thus to explain variation in patron reassurance and allied burden-sharing. I posit that reassurance serves the purpose of discouraging allies from leaving the alliance; the more credible allies’ threats of exit, the more reassurance they will receive. However, patrons can make their assurances conditional on allies’ burden-sharing efforts if their own threat of exiting the alliance is credible as well. I present a simple formal model illustrating both the tradeoffs between reassurance and burden-sharing, as well as the conditions under which patrons are more likely to reassure and allies are more likely to increase their contributions to the alliance. I then introduce hypotheses for testing the theory’s observable implications. Chapter 4 presents the quantitative analysis on the determinants of patron reassurance and allied burden-sharing. First, using an original dataset of U.S. reassurance collected and analyzed with automated text analysis, I use statistical models to identify correlates of U.S. willingness to offer reassurances. Second, I study allied burden-sharing using data on allies’ military spending, support for U.S. military bases, and participation in U.S. foreign military interventions. The quantitative findings strongly support the theory; the United States reassures allies that are at greater risk of exiting the alliance more, while allies more dependent on U.S. protection also spend more on defense, provide more compensation for the costs of U.S. military bases, and participate in U.S. foreign military interventions at a greater rate. In Chapters 5-8, I conduct case studies on U.S. reassurance and burden-sharing pressure toward West Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom during the 1960s and 1970s. Process-tracing of these cases shows that the United States saw reassurance as a way of discouraging its allies from pursuing outside options—in particular nuclear weapons and rapprochement with the Soviet Union. However, the United States was simultaneously able to extract significant burden-sharing efforts, especially from West Germany and South Korea owing to their geographic vulnerability, and during the early 1970s due to doubts about U.S. reliability in the aftermath of the Vietnam War. Finally, Chapter 9 concludes with a summary of the analysis, as well as a discussion of implications and avenues for future research. My findings suggest that by withholding reassurance and deliberately casting doubt on its protection, a patron makes its allies prone to reconsidering their reliance on it and to instead pursue outside options

Emergent Comorbid Events in First Year of Immunomodulatory Treatment in Adults With Generalized Myasthenia Gravis treated in a Neurology Clinic: A Retrospective Review

Background: Current treatments for myasthenia gravis, including immunomodulatory therapies, are associated with significant comorbid events. Method: Retrospective chart review of all adults diagnosed with generalized myasthenia gravis in our clinic over 5 years to evaluate potential associations between treatment regimens and emergent comorbid events according to system organ class. Comorbid events were categorized by affected system organ class as endocrine, neuropsychiatric, musculoskeletal, gastrointestinal, pulmonary, cardiovascular, urologic, infectious, and hematologic. MG treatment regimens at the latest available date during the 1-year follow-up were categorized by corticosteroid use and further stratified by medication class and combination therapy. Result: A total of 68 patients were included in the analysis (corticosteroid group, n = 43; non-corticosteroid group, n = 25). We found no significant differences in the frequencies of comorbid events between patients whose regimens included corticosteroids and patients with corticosteroid-free regimens. Patients who received pyridostigmine, high-dose corticosteroids, and corticosteroid-sparing agents in combination experienced higher incidences of emergent endocrine and neuropsychiatric events than those who received other corticosteroid-containing treatments. Conclusion: Polypharmacy that included high-dose corticosteroids was associated with a greater incidence of new endocrine and neuropsychiatric comorbid events within 1 year of diagnosi

Emergent Comorbid Events in First Year of Immunomodulatory Treatment in Adults With Generalized Myasthenia Gravis treated in a Neurology Clinic: A Retrospective Review

Background: Current treatments for myasthenia gravis, including immunomodulatory therapies, are associated with significant comorbid events. Method: Retrospective chart review of all adults diagnosed with generalized myasthenia gravis in our clinic over 5 years to evaluate potential associations between treatment regimens and emergent comorbid events according to system organ class. Comorbid events were categorized by affected system organ class as endocrine, neuropsychiatric, musculoskeletal, gastrointestinal, pulmonary, cardiovascular, urologic, infectious, and hematologic. MG treatment regimens at the latest available date during the 1-year follow-up were categorized by corticosteroid use and further stratified by medication class and combination therapy. Result: A total of 68 patients were included in the analysis (corticosteroid group, n = 43; non-corticosteroid group, n = 25). We found no significant differences in the frequencies of comorbid events between patients whose regimens included corticosteroids and patients with corticosteroid-free regimens. Patients who received pyridostigmine, high-dose corticosteroids, and corticosteroid-sparing agents in combination experienced higher incidences of emergent endocrine and neuropsychiatric events than those who received other corticosteroid-containing treatments. Conclusion: Polypharmacy that included high-dose corticosteroids was associated with a greater incidence of new endocrine and neuropsychiatric comorbid events within 1 year of diagnosi

BIOMECHANICAL ANALYSIS OF LOADED PLYOMETRIC EXERCISES

Plyometric intensity and specificity are determined by the exercises performed. This study assessed ground reaction forces (GRF) in the frontal (F), horizontal-anterior (H), and vertical (V) planes, and the ratio of H to V GRF (H:V) of plyometric exercises and load conditions. Subjects (N=15) performed five plyometric variations with five handheld loads on two force platforms. A two-way RM ANOVA was used. Analysis of F GRF revealed main effects for plyometric exercise (p = 0.004). Analysis of H GRF revealed main effects for plyometric load (p = .042) and plyometric exercise (p ≤ 0.001). Analysis of V GRF revealed main effects for plyometric load (p ≤ 0.001) and plyometric exercise (p ≤ 0.001). Analysis of H:V revealed main effects for plyometric exercise (p ≤ 0.001). Practitioners should use the plyometric exercises and loads that optimize the kinetics and transfer of training

BIOMECHANICAL ANALYSIS OF ACCELERATION LADDERS WITH VARYING STEP DISTANCES

This study assessed select kinetics and kinematics of each of the first three steps of the acceleration phase of sprinting using three different acceleration ladders. Subjects (N=15) performed sprints using acceleration ladders with short, medium, and long rung spacing, over two large force platforms. Multi-factorial repeated measure ANOVAs were used to assess horizontal and vertical ground reaction force (GRF), the ratio of horizontal to vertical GRF, the duration of vertical GRF, time between steps, distance between steps, and velocity between steps and across all steps. Main effects were significant (p ≤ 0.05) for all variables except time. Post-hoc analysis identified a variety of differences in the dependent variables in the analysis of steps, test condition and their interaction (p ≤ 0.05). Results show that greater velocity is attained with ladders that have longer step distances

Effect of the dietary supplement Meltdown on catecholamine secretion, markers of lipolysis, and metabolic rate in men and women: a randomized, placebo controlled, cross-over study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We have recently reported that the dietary supplement Meltdown^®increases plasma norepinephrine (NE), epinephrine (EPI), glycerol, free fatty acids (FFA), and metabolic rate in men. However, in that investigation measurements ceased at 90 minutes post ingestion, with values for blood borne variables peaking at this time. It was the purpose of the present investigation to extend the time course of measurement to 6 hours, and to include women within the design to determine if sex differences to treatment exist.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ten men (24 ± 4 yrs) and 10 women (22 ± 2 yrs) ingested Meltdown^®or a placebo, using a randomized, cross-over design with one week separating conditions. Blood samples were collected immediately before supplementation and at one hour intervals through 6 hours post ingestion. A standard meal was provided after the hour 3 collection. Samples were assayed for EPI, NE, glycerol, and FFA. Five minute breath samples were collected at each time for measurement of metabolic rate and substrate utilization. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Heart rate and blood pressure were recorded at all times. Data were also analyzed using a 2 (sex) × 2 (condition) × 7 (time) repeated measures analysis of variance, with Tukey <it>post hoc </it>testing.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No sex × condition interactions were noted for AUC for any variable (p > 0.05). Hence, AUC data are collapsed across men and women. AUC was greater for Meltdown^®compared to placebo for EPI (367 ± 58 pg·mL^-1·6 hr^-1vs. 183 ± 27 pg·mL^-1·6 hr^-1; p = 0.01), NE (2345 ± 205 pg·mL^-1·6 hr^-1vs. 1659 ± 184 pg·mL^-1·6 hr^-1; p = 0.02), glycerol (79 ± 8 μg·mL^-1·6 hr^-1vs. 59 ± 6 μg·mL^-1·6 hr^-1; p = 0.03), FFA (2.46 ± 0.64 mmol·L^-1·6 hr^-1vs. 1.57 ± 0.42 mmol·L^-1·6 hr^-1; p = 0.05), and kilocalorie expenditure (439 ± 26 kcal·6 hrs^-1vs. 380 ± 14 kcal·6 hrs^-1; p = 0.02). No effect was noted for substrate utilization (p = 0.39). Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.0001; 1–16 mmHg), as well as heart rate (p = 0.01; 1–9 bpm) were higher for Meltdown^®. No sex × condition × time interactions were noted for any variable (p > 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Ingestion of Meltdown^®results in an increase in catecholamine secretion, lipolysis, and metabolic rate in young men and women, with a similar response for both sexes. Meltdown^®may prove to be an effective intervention strategy for fat loss, assuming individuals are normotensive and their treatment is monitored by a qualified health care professional.</p

Complex 3-Dimensional Microscale Structures for Quantum Sensing Applications

We present a novel method for fabricating highly customizable three-dimensional structures hosting quantum sensors based on Nitrogen Vacancy (NV) centers using two-photon polymerization. This approach overcomes challenges associated with structuring traditional single-crystal quantum sensing platforms and enables the creation of complex, fully three-dimensional, sensor assemblies with sub-microscale resolutions (down to 400 nm) and large fields of view (>1 mm). By embedding NV center-containing nanoparticles in exemplary structures, we demonstrate high sensitivity optical sensing of temperature and magnetic fields at the microscale. Our work showcases the potential for integrating quantum sensors with advanced manufacturing techniques, facilitating the incorporation of sensors into existing microfluidic and electronic platforms, and opening new avenues for widespread utilization of quantum sensors in various applications

The Water Cycle from Space: Use of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology and Water Resource Management

This slide presentation reviews how our understanding of the water cycle is enhanced by our use of satellite data, and how this informs land surface hydrology and water resource management. It reviews how NASA's current and future satellite missions will provide Earth system data of unprecedented breadth, accuracy and utility for hydrologic analysis