Modelling take-up of Family Credit and Working Families' Tax Credit

Many people in the UK do not claim benefits to which they seem to be entitled. Amongst those of working-age, take-up rates for Family Credit ֠an in-work benefit available to those with children and working at least 16 hours a week ֠were the lowest of the main three means-tested benefits. In 1999, the UK Government replaced Family Credit with Working Families' Tax Credit, which was more generous, and delivered in a different way from FC. As a prelude to further work (now published as an update to this in the final report), we have analysed the decision to take up FC, and how take-up changed during the initial 6 month phase-in period of WFTC. Although there are differences in how well each records receipt of FC, we find reassuring similarities in comparable econometric models of take-up estimated on three different micro-data-sets. Entitlement, earnings, non-labour income, and education attainment are the most important determinants of FC take-up. We investigated FC take-up in greater detail using only the Family Resources Survey. Social renters are more likely to claim FC than owner occupiers or those in the private rental market, and we find that housing benefit recipients seem to under-value the potential fall in HB when considering whether to claim FC. We find that the Family Credit childcare disregard had little impact on the likelihood of take-up. Take-up of WFTC, conditional on entitlement, fell immediately after its introduction, compared to FC, but the majority of the effect is explained by the relatively low take-up rates of those families who were not previously entitled to FC. This is unsurprising, as we would not expect this group to have claimed WFTC on the first day of its existence. Work currently in progress is examining how take-up of WFTC, and the factors associated with take-up, changed between April 2000 and March 2003

Did working families' tax credit work? The final evaluation of the impact of in-work support on parents' labour supply and take-up behaviour in the UK

With micro-data from before and after a major reform in 1999 to the structure and form of in-work transfers in the UK, this paper uses a structural model of labour supply and programme participation to evaluate the labour market impact of Working Families' Tax Credit (WFTC). Estimates suggest that by 2002, WFTC had increased labour supply of lone mothers by around 5.11 percentage points, slightly reduced labour supply of mothers in couples by 0.57 percentage points, and increased the labour supply of fathers in couples by 0.75 percentage points, compared with the benefit that preceded it, called Family Credit. In aggregate, these changes are equivalent to a fall of 99,000 in the number of workless families with children, and a net increase in labour market participation of 81,000 workers. However, contemporaneous tax and benefit reforms acted to reduce the labour supply of parents, and so the overall impact of tax and benefit changes introduced since 1999 is lower than stated above. Participating in Family Credit, the UK's in-work programme before October 1999, conferred a utility loss as well as a utility gain from the extra income, but we find this utility cost of participation to be lower in the final year of WFTC than it was in the last year of Family Credit for lone mothers, and no different for individuals in couples: this in itself induced more lone mothers to work

Did Working Families' Tax Credit work? Analysing the impact of in-work support on labour supply and programme participation

With micro-data from before and after a major reform in 1999 to the structure and form of in-work transfers in the UK, this paper uses a structural model of labour supply and programme participation to show the impact of a reform to in-work support (Working Families' Tax Credit) on both labour supply and programme participation (or take-up). Estimates suggest that the changes in in-work incomes through the introduction of WFTC increased labour supply of lone mothers by around 4.6 percentage points, slightly reduced labour supply of mothers in couples by 0.2 percentage points, and increased the labour supply of fathers in couples by 0.8 percentage points, equivalent to a net increase in participation of 94,000 workers. Participating in Family Credit, the UK's in-work programme before October 1999, conferred a utility loss as well as a utility gain from the extra income, but we find this utility cost of participation to be lower under WFTC

Biological Control Of Cereal Aphids in North America and Mediating Effects of Host Plant and Habitat Manipulations*

The predator and parasitoid fauna associated with cereal aphids is described, emphasizing the fauna associated with classical biological control efforts against the greenbug and Russian wheat aphid. We focus on literature from North America and include work from Europe and elsewhere when it is desirable to draw contrasts between approaches that affect cereal aphid biological control. Effects on natural enemies of cereal aphids are described that appear associated with plant traits that are innate, bred, or induced by aphid feeding. Examples of habitat manipulations, within and bordering cereal fields and within the broader landscape in which cereal production resides, affecting predators and parasitoids of cereal aphids are presented. These mediating effects of host plant and habitat manipulations on cereal aphid biological control provide significant and under-explored avenues to optimize cereal aphid management

Modelling species presence–absence in the ecological niche theory framework using shape-constrained generalized additive models

According to ecological niche theory, species response curves are unimodal with respect to environmental gradients. A variety of statistical methods have been developed for species distribution modelling. A general problem with most of these habitat modelling approaches is that the estimated response curves can display biologically implausible shapes which do not respect ecological niche theory. This work proposes using shapeconstrained generalized additive models (SC-GAMs) to build species distribution models under the ecological niche theory framework, imposing concavity constraints in the linear predictor scale. Based on a simulation study and a real data application, we compared performance with respect to other regression models without shape-constraints (such as standard GLMs and GAMs with varying degrees of freedom) and also to models based on so-called “Plateau” climate-envelopes. The imposition of concavity for response curves resulted in a good balance between the goodness of fit (GOF) and agreement with ecological niche theory. The approach has been applied to fit distribution models for three fish species given several environmental variables

“Organic,” “natural,” and “additive-free” cigarettes: Comparing the effects of advertising claims and disclaimers on perceptions of harm

Introduction: The US Tobacco Control Act restricts advertising or labeling that suggests one tobacco product is less harmful than another. We sought to examine how “organic,” “natural,” and “additive-free” advertising claims and corresponding disclaimers affect perceptions of cigarettes’ harm. Methods: Participants were a national probability sample of adults in the United States (n = 1114, including 344 smokers). We conducted a 5 (claim) × 2 (disclaimer) between-subjects factorial experiment. Participants viewed a Natural American Spirit cigarettes ad claiming they were “organic,” “natural,” “additive-free,” “light,” or “regular;” and with or without a corresponding disclaimer. The outcome was perceived harm of the advertised cigarettes. Among smokers, we also assessed interest in switching within their current brand to cigarettes with this characteristic (eg, “additive-free”). Results: Claims in the ad had a large effect on perceived harm (Cohen’s d = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.47 to 1.29). Claims of cigarettes being “organic,” “natural,” or “additive-free” reduced perceived harm from the advertised cigarettes, as compared with “regular” and “light” claims. Disclaimers had a small effect, increasing perceived harm (d = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.41). The problematic claims also increased smokers’ interest in switching. Disclaimers had no effect on smokers’ interest in switching. Conclusions: “Organic,” “natural,” and “additive-free” claims May mislead people into thinking that the advertised cigarettes are less harmful than other cigarettes. Disclaimers did not offset misperceptions of harm created by false claims. The US Food and Drug Administration should restrict the use of these misleading claims in tobacco advertising. Implications: “Organic,” “natural,” and “additive-free” cigarette advertising claims decrease perceptions of harm among the public and increase interest in switching to such cigarettes among smokers. Disclaimers do not counteract the reduced perceptions of harm or increased interest in switching to these cigarettes. The US Food and Drug Administration should restrict the use of “organic,” “natural,” and “additive-free” claims in tobacco marketing

The Oxford Face Matching Test: A non-biased test of the full range of individual differences in face perception.

Tests of face processing are typically designed to identify individuals performing outside of the typical range; either prosopagnosic individuals who exhibit poor face processing ability, or super recognisers, who have superior face processing abilities. Here we describe the development of the Oxford Face Matching Test (OFMT), designed to identify individual differences in face processing across the full range of performance, from prosopagnosia, through the range of typical performance, to super recognisers. Such a test requires items of varying difficulty, but establishing difficulty is problematic when particular populations (e.g., prosopagnosics, individuals with autism spectrum disorder) may use atypical strategies to process faces. If item difficulty is calibrated on neurotypical individuals, then the test may be poorly calibrated for atypical groups, and vice versa. To obtain items of varying difficulty, we used facial recognition algorithms to obtain face pair similarity ratings that are not biased towards specific populations. These face pairs were used as stimuli in the OFMT, and participants were required to judge whether the face images depicted the same individual or different individuals. Across five studies the OFMT was shown to be sensitive to individual differences in the typical population, and in groups of both prosopagnosic individuals and super recognisers. The test-retest reliability of the task was at least equivalent to the Cambridge Face Memory Test and the Glasgow Face Matching Test. Furthermore, results reveal, at least at the group level, that both face perception and face memory are poor in those with prosopagnosia, and are good in super recognisers

Projection Postulate and Atomic Quantum Zeno Effect

The projection postulate has been used to predict a slow-down of the time evolution of the state of a system under rapidly repeated measurements, and ultimately a freezing of the state. To test this so-called quantum Zeno effect an experiment was performed by Itano et al. (Phys. Rev. A 41, 2295 (1990)) in which an atomic-level measurement was realized by means of a short laser pulse. The relevance of the results has given rise to controversies in the literature. In particular the projection postulate and its applicability in this experiment have been cast into doubt. In this paper we show analytically that for a wide range of parameters such a short laser pulse acts as an effective level measurement to which the usual projection postulate applies with high accuracy. The corrections to the ideal reductions and their accumulation over n pulses are calculated. Our conclusion is that the projection postulate is an excellent pragmatic tool for a quick and simple understanding of the slow-down of time evolution in experiments of this type. However, corrections have to be included, and an actual freezing does not seem possible because of the finite duration of measurements.Comment: 25 pages, LaTeX, no figures; to appear in Phys. Rev.

BICCO-Net II. Final report to the Biological Impacts of Climate Change Observation Network (BICCO-Net) Steering Group

• BICCO-Net Phase II presents the most comprehensive single assessment of climate change impacts on UK biodiversity to date. • The results provide a valuable resource for the CCRA 2018, future LWEC report cards, the National Adaptation Programme and other policy-relevant initiatives linked to climate change impacts on biodiversity