Calculating partial expected value of perfect information via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculations can quantify the value of learning about particular subsets of uncertain parameters in decision models. Published case studies have used different computational approaches. This article examines the computation of partial EVPI estimates via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. The mathematical definition shows 2 nested expectations, which must be evaluated separately because of the need to compute a maximum between them. A generalized Monte Carlo sampling algorithm uses nested simulation with an outer loop to sample parameters of interest and, conditional upon these, an inner loop to sample remaining uncertain parameters. Alternative computation methods and shortcut algorithms are discussed and mathematical conditions for their use considered. Maxima of Monte Carlo estimates of expectations are biased upward, and the authors show that the use of small samples results in biased EVPI estimates. Three case studies illustrate 1) the bias due to maximization and also the inaccuracy of shortcut algorithms 2) when correlated variables are present and 3) when there is nonlinearity in net benefit functions. If relatively small correlation or nonlinearity is present, then the shortcut algorithm can be substantially inaccurate. Empirical investigation of the numbers of Monte Carlo samples suggests that fewer samples on the outer level and more on the inner level could be efficient and that relatively small numbers of samples can sometimes be used. Several remaining areas for methodological development are set out. A wider application of partial EVPI is recommended both for greater understanding of decision uncertainty and for analyzing research priorities

Do (and say) as I say: Linguistic adaptation in human-computer dialogs

© Theodora Koulouri, Stanislao Lauria, and Robert D. Macredie. This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.There is strong research evidence showing that people naturally align to each other’s vocabulary, sentence structure, and acoustic features in dialog, yet little is known about how the alignment mechanism operates in the interaction between users and computer systems let alone how it may be exploited to improve the efficiency of the interaction. This article provides an account of lexical alignment in human–computer dialogs, based on empirical data collected in a simulated human–computer interaction scenario. The results indicate that alignment is present, resulting in the gradual reduction and stabilization of the vocabulary-in-use, and that it is also reciprocal. Further, the results suggest that when system and user errors occur, the development of alignment is temporarily disrupted and users tend to introduce novel words to the dialog. The results also indicate that alignment in human–computer interaction may have a strong strategic component and is used as a resource to compensate for less optimal (visually impoverished) interaction conditions. Moreover, lower alignment is associated with less successful interaction, as measured by user perceptions. The article distills the results of the study into design recommendations for human–computer dialog systems and uses them to outline a model of dialog management that supports and exploits alignment through mechanisms for in-use adaptation of the system’s grammar and lexicon

Telemonitoring after discharge from hospital with heart failure: cost-effectiveness modelling of alternative service designs.

Objectives To estimate the cost-effectiveness of remote monitoring strategies versus usual care for adults recently discharged after a heart failure (HF) exacerbation. Design Decision analysis modelling of cost-effectiveness using secondary data sources. Setting Acute hospitals in the UK. Patients Patients recently discharged (within 28 days) after a HF exacerbation. Interventions Structured telephone support (STS) via human to machine (STS HM) interface, (2) STS via human to human (STS HH) contact and (3) home telemonitoring (TM), compared with (4) usual care. Main outcome measures The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by each strategy compared to the next most effective alternative and the probability of each strategy being cost-effective at varying willingness to pay per QALY gained. Results TM was the most cost-effective strategy in the scenario using these base case costs. Compared with usual care, TM had an estimated incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £11 873/QALY, whereas STS HH had an ICER of £228 035/QALY against TM. STS HM was dominated by usual care. Threshold analysis suggested that the monthly cost of TM has to be higher than £390 to have an ICER greater than £20 000/QALY against STS HH. Scenario analyses performed using higher costs of usual care, higher costs of STS HH and lower costs of TM do not substantially change the conclusions. Conclusions Cost-effectiveness analyses suggest that TM was an optimal strategy in most scenarios, but there is considerable uncertainty in relation to clear descriptions of the interventions and robust estimation of costs

Longitudinal assessment of white matter pathology in the injured mouse spinal cord through ultra-high field (16.4T) in vivo diffusion tensor imaging

This study examined the sensitivity of ultra-high field (16.4 T) diffusion tensor imaging (DTI; 70 mu m in-plane resolution, 1 mm slice thickness) to evaluate the spatiotemporal development of severe mid-thoracic contusive spinal cord injury (SCI) in mice. In vivo imaging was performed prior to SCI, then again at 2 h, 1 day, 3 days, 7 days, and 30 days post-SCI using a Bruker 16.4 T small animal nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometer. Cross-sectional spinal cord areas were measured in axial slices and various DTI parameters, i.e. fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (lambda(parallel to)) and radial diffusivity (lambda(perpendicular to)), were calculated for the total spared white matter (WM), ventral funiculi (VF), lateral funiculi (LF) and dorsal columns (DCs) and then correlated with histopathology. Cross-sectional area measurements revealed significant atrophy (32% reduction) of the injured spinal cord at the lesion epicentre in the chronic phase of injury. Analysis of diffusion tensor parameters further showed that tissue integrity was most severely affected in the DCs, i.e. the site of immediate impact, which demonstrated a rapid and permanent decrease in FA and lambda(parallel to). In contrast, DTI parameters for the ventrolateral white matter changed more gradually with time, suggesting that these regions are undergoing more delayed degeneration in a manner that may be amenable to therapeutic intervention. Of all the DTI parameters, lambda(perpendicular to) was most closely correlated to myelin content whereas changes in FA and lambda(parallel to) appeared more indicative of axonal integrity, Wallerian degeneration and associated presence of macrophages. We conclude that longitudinal DTI at 16.4 T provides a clinically relevant, objective measure for assessing white matter pathology following contusive SCI in mice that may aid the translation of putative neuroprotective strategies into the clinic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Investigating relationships between and within entry pathways on a sport related programme and the degree outcome obtained

Research within Higher Education in the United Kingdom has reported conflicting findings when investigating the relationship between undergraduate entry routes and gender, with successful performances across the degree cycle. This paper adds to this body of knowledge and examines the relationship between entry routes and gender on student outcomes in a sport-related degree at an UK HE institution. Students’ demographic data, entry qualifications and grade point averages (GPAs) across the 3 year degree programme were retrospectively analysed. In relation to entry routes the findings of this study revealed that no significant difference existed between entry level qualifications and all outcomes measures. Indicating that although entry routes into HE may differ this did not impact on student success for those who completed the programme. Further findings revealed significant differences (p < 0.05) between genders, in that females outperformed their male counterparts at levels 5, 6 dissertation and final GPA. Additionally, females were also more likely to achieve a first degree qualification. This study adds further weight to findings which have shown gender differences but in contrast adds to the complexity of predicting successful performances from entry qualifications

A comparison of absolute, ratio and allometric scaling methods for normalizing strength in elite American football players

Division I football players exemplify the greatest range in body mass of any modern team sport. Body mass may differ by over 80 kg between the various positions. Absolute muscular strength is typically greater in larger individuals, but such data does not allow for accurate comparisons. Therefore, in order to compare the performance indices of individual groups allometric rather than ratio scaling has been suggested. The purpose of this study was to compare absolute strength, normalized ratio and allometrically scaled data among players of different size