Calculating partial expected value of perfect information via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculations can quantify the value of learning about particular subsets of uncertain parameters in decision models. Published case studies have used different computational approaches. This article examines the computation of partial EVPI estimates via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. The mathematical definition shows 2 nested expectations, which must be evaluated separately because of the need to compute a maximum between them. A generalized Monte Carlo sampling algorithm uses nested simulation with an outer loop to sample parameters of interest and, conditional upon these, an inner loop to sample remaining uncertain parameters. Alternative computation methods and shortcut algorithms are discussed and mathematical conditions for their use considered. Maxima of Monte Carlo estimates of expectations are biased upward, and the authors show that the use of small samples results in biased EVPI estimates. Three case studies illustrate 1) the bias due to maximization and also the inaccuracy of shortcut algorithms 2) when correlated variables are present and 3) when there is nonlinearity in net benefit functions. If relatively small correlation or nonlinearity is present, then the shortcut algorithm can be substantially inaccurate. Empirical investigation of the numbers of Monte Carlo samples suggests that fewer samples on the outer level and more on the inner level could be efficient and that relatively small numbers of samples can sometimes be used. Several remaining areas for methodological development are set out. A wider application of partial EVPI is recommended both for greater understanding of decision uncertainty and for analyzing research priorities

Exploration of the Southern California Borderland

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Design of a retrospective patient record study on the occurrence of adverse events among patients in Dutch hospitals

BACKGROUND: Various international studies have shown that a substantial number of patients suffer from injuries or even die as a result of care delivered in hospitals. The occurrence of injuries among patients caused by health care management in Dutch hospitals has never been studied systematically. Therefore, an epidemiological study was initiated to determine the incidence, type and impact of adverse events among discharged and deceased patients in Dutch hospitals. METHODS/DESIGN: Three stage retrospective patient record review study in 21 hospitals of 8400 patient records of discharged or deceased patients in 2004. The records were reviewed by trained nurses and physicians between August 2005 and October 2006. In addition to the determination of presence, the degree of preventability, and causes of adverse events, also location, timing, classification, and most responsible specialty of the adverse events were measured. Moreover, patient and admission characteristics and the quality of the patient records were recorded. DISCUSSION: In this paper we report on the design of the retrospective patient record study on the occurrence of adverse events in Dutch hospitals. Attention is paid to the strengths and limitations of the study design. Furthermore, alterations made in the original research protocol in comparison with former international studies are described in detail

Evaluation of the current knowledge limitations in breast cancer research: a gap analysis

BACKGROUND A gap analysis was conducted to determine which areas of breast cancer research, if targeted by researchers and funding bodies, could produce the greatest impact on patients. METHODS Fifty-six Breast Cancer Campaign grant holders and prominent UK breast cancer researchers participated in a gap analysis of current breast cancer research. Before, during and following the meeting, groups in seven key research areas participated in cycles of presentation, literature review and discussion. Summary papers were prepared by each group and collated into this position paper highlighting the research gaps, with recommendations for action. RESULTS Gaps were identified in all seven themes. General barriers to progress were lack of financial and practical resources, and poor collaboration between disciplines. Critical gaps in each theme included: (1) genetics (knowledge of genetic changes, their effects and interactions); (2) initiation of breast cancer (how developmental signalling pathways cause ductal elongation and branching at the cellular level and influence stem cell dynamics, and how their disruption initiates tumour formation); (3) progression of breast cancer (deciphering the intracellular and extracellular regulators of early progression, tumour growth, angiogenesis and metastasis); (4) therapies and targets (understanding who develops advanced disease); (5) disease markers (incorporating intelligent trial design into all studies to ensure new treatments are tested in patient groups stratified using biomarkers); (6) prevention (strategies to prevent oestrogen-receptor negative tumours and the long-term effects of chemoprevention for oestrogen-receptor positive tumours); (7) psychosocial aspects of cancer (the use of appropriate psychosocial interventions, and the personal impact of all stages of the disease among patients from a range of ethnic and demographic backgrounds). CONCLUSION Through recommendations to address these gaps with future research, the long-term benefits to patients will include: better estimation of risk in families with breast cancer and strategies to reduce risk; better prediction of drug response and patient prognosis; improved tailoring of treatments to patient subgroups and development of new therapeutic approaches; earlier initiation of treatment; more effective use of resources for screening populations; and an enhanced experience for people with or at risk of breast cancer and their families. The challenge to funding bodies and researchers in all disciplines is to focus on these gaps and to drive advances in knowledge into improvements in patient care

The effects of an enhanced simulation programme on medical students' confidence responding to clinical deterioration

BACKGROUND: Clinical deterioration in adult hospital patients is an identified issue in healthcare practice globally. Teaching medical students to recognise and respond to the deteriorating patient is crucial if we are to address the issue in an effective way. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of an enhanced simulation exercise known as RADAR (Recognising Acute Deterioration: Active Response), on medical students’ confidence. METHODS: A questionnaire survey was conducted; the instrument contained three sections. Section 1 focused on students’ perceptions of the learning experience; section 2 investigated confidence. Both sections employed Likert-type scales. A third section invited open responses. Questionnaires were distributed to a cohort of third-year medical students (n = 158) in the North East of Scotland 130 (82 %) were returned for analysis, employing IBM SPSS v18 and ANOVA techniques. RESULTS: Students’ responses pointed to many benefits of the sessions. In the first section, students responded positively to the educational underpinning of the sessions, with all scores above 4.00 on a 5-point scale. There were clear learning outcomes; the sessions were active and engaging for students with an appropriate level of challenge and stress; they helped to integrate theory and practice; and effective feedback on their performance allowed students to reflect and learn from the experience. In section 2, the key finding was that scores for students’ confidence to recognise deterioration increased significantly (p. < .001) as a result of the sessions. Effect sizes (Eta(2)) were high, (0.68–0.75). In the open-ended questions, students pointed to many benefits of the RADAR course, including the opportunity to employ learned procedures in realistic scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this enhanced form of simulation with simulated patients and the judicious use of moulage is an effective method of increasing realism for medical students. Importantly, it gives them greater confidence in recognising and responding to clinical deterioration in adult patients. We recommend the use of RADAR as a safe and cost-effective approach in the area of clinical deterioration and suggest that there is a need to investigate its use with different patient groups

A Mycobacterial Enzyme Essential for Cell Division Synergizes with Resuscitation-Promoting Factor

The final stage of bacterial cell division requires the activity of one or more enzymes capable of degrading the layers of peptidoglycan connecting two recently developed daughter cells. Although this is a key step in cell division and is required by all peptidoglycan-containing bacteria, little is known about how these potentially lethal enzymes are regulated. It is likely that regulation is mediated, at least partly, through protein–protein interactions. Two lytic transglycosylases of mycobacteria, known as resuscitation-promoting factor B and E (RpfB and RpfE), have previously been shown to interact with the peptidoglycan-hydrolyzing endopeptidase, Rpf-interacting protein A (RipA). These proteins may form a complex at the septum of dividing bacteria. To investigate the function of this potential complex, we generated depletion strains in M. smegmatis. Here we show that, while depletion of rpfB has no effect on viability or morphology, ripA depletion results in a marked decrease in growth and formation of long, branched chains. These growth and morphological defects could be functionally complemented by the M. tuberculosis ripA orthologue (rv1477), but not by another ripA-like orthologue (rv1478). Depletion of ripA also resulted in increased susceptibility to the cell wall–targeting β-lactams. Furthermore, we demonstrate that RipA has hydrolytic activity towards several cell wall substrates and synergizes with RpfB. These data reveal the unusual essentiality of a peptidoglycan hydrolase and suggest a novel protein–protein interaction as one way of regulating its activity

Professionalism and Evolving Concepts of Quality

For much of the twentieth century, quality of care was defined specifically in terms of physician characteristics and behaviors. High-quality physicians were well trained, knowledgeable, skillful, and compassionate. More recently, quality of care has been defined in terms of systems of care. High-quality organizations develop and adopt practices to reduce adverse events and optimize outcomes. This essay discusses this transformation from physician-based to organization-based concepts of quality and the consequences for patient care and medical professionalism

Mix of methods is needed to identify adverse events in general practice: A prospective observational study

Contains fulltext : 69425.pdf ( ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: The validity and usefulness of incident reporting and other methods for identifying adverse events remains unclear. This study aimed to compare five methods in general practice. METHODS: In a prospective observational study, with five general practitioners, five methods were applied and compared. The five methods were physician reported adverse events, pharmacist reported adverse events, patients' experiences of adverse events, assessment of a random sample of medical records, and assessment of all deceased patients. RESULTS: A total of 68 events were identified using these methods. The patient survey accounted for the highest number of events and the pharmacist reports for the lowest number. No overlap between the methods was detected. The patient survey accounted for the highest number of events and the pharmacist reports for the lowest number. CONCLUSION: A mix of methods is needed to identify adverse events in general practice