Calculating partial expected value of perfect information via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculations can quantify the value of learning about particular subsets of uncertain parameters in decision models. Published case studies have used different computational approaches. This article examines the computation of partial EVPI estimates via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. The mathematical definition shows 2 nested expectations, which must be evaluated separately because of the need to compute a maximum between them. A generalized Monte Carlo sampling algorithm uses nested simulation with an outer loop to sample parameters of interest and, conditional upon these, an inner loop to sample remaining uncertain parameters. Alternative computation methods and shortcut algorithms are discussed and mathematical conditions for their use considered. Maxima of Monte Carlo estimates of expectations are biased upward, and the authors show that the use of small samples results in biased EVPI estimates. Three case studies illustrate 1) the bias due to maximization and also the inaccuracy of shortcut algorithms 2) when correlated variables are present and 3) when there is nonlinearity in net benefit functions. If relatively small correlation or nonlinearity is present, then the shortcut algorithm can be substantially inaccurate. Empirical investigation of the numbers of Monte Carlo samples suggests that fewer samples on the outer level and more on the inner level could be efficient and that relatively small numbers of samples can sometimes be used. Several remaining areas for methodological development are set out. A wider application of partial EVPI is recommended both for greater understanding of decision uncertainty and for analyzing research priorities

Albedo measurements at the Mt. Lassen test site

Solar energy and reflected radiation flux measurements on mountainous test sit

Practice activity trends among oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia

© 2004 Brennan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe practice activity trends among oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia over time. METHODS: All registered oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia were surveyed in 1990 and 2000 using mailed self-complete questionnaires. RESULTS: Data were available from 79 surgeons from 1990 (response rate = 73.8%) and 116 surgeons from 2000 (response rate = 65.1%). The rate of provision of services per visit changed over time with increased rates observed overall (from 1.43 ± 0.05 services per visit in 1990 to 1.66 ± 0.06 services per visit in 2000), reflecting increases in pathology and reconstructive surgery. No change over time was observed in the provision of services per year (4,521 ± 286 services per year in 1990 and 4,503 ± 367 services per year in 2000). Time devoted to work showed no significant change over time (1,682 ± 75 hours per year in 1990 and 1,681 ± 94 hours per year in 2000), while the number of visits per week declined (70 ± 4 visits per week in 1990 to 58 ± 4 visits per week in 2000). CONCLUSIONS: The apparent stability in the volume of services provided per year reflected a counterbalancing of increased services provided per visit and a decrease in the number of visits supplied.David S Brennan, A John Spencer, Kiran A Singh, Dana N Teusner and Alastair N Gos

Selected aspects of lunar mare geology from Apollo orbital photography

Crater size-frequency distributions were studied (100-500 m) and are shown to provide significant integrated information concerning mare surface ages, subsurface stratigraphy, and surficial geology. Equilibrium cratering is discussed gradually reducing the relative numbers of craters smaller than 300-400 m in diameter as surfaces age and regolith thickens. Results for surface ages are in good agreement with other published crater ages. The existing correlations of large ring structures among various circular mare basins are shown to be based on criteria that are inconsistent and nonstandardized. A means of comparing equivalent ring structures in the different maria is proposed which takes into account the important characteristics of young unflooded basins (Orientale) as well as the progressive development of tectonic and volcanic features within the older flooded maria. Specific geologic aspects of several of the lunar maria are discussed and especially Mare Smythii, because of its great age and significantly different surface morphology. Lunar photographs and maps are shown

Gee! But I\u27m Crazy For The Summertime

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/1495/thumbnail.jp

State Welfare-to-Work Policies for People with Disabilities

This study represents a first attempt to provide a nationwide overview of welfare-to-work policies for individuals with disabilities and caregivers. The major findings of this report are: (c) The majority of states have changed their work participation policies to require participation among some individuals with disabilities and caregivers who were previously exempt. (c) States are in the early stages of making decisions about who should be required to participate in welfare-to-work services, who should be expected to move off welfare within 60 months, and what services will best help recipients achieve this objective