Arms Trade Offsets and Development

Offsets, arrangements that obligate the arms seller to reinvest (“offset”) arms sales proceeds in the purchasing country, are an increasingly important facet of the international trade in arms. They are used to justify spending on imports by promises that there will be significant benefits to the economy, through the promotion and development of local industry, technology and employment. Until recently, however, there has been little research on how well offsets work in practice. This paper is a ‘state-of-the-art’ review of our empirical knowledge regarding arms trade offsets. We find virtually no case where offset arrangements have yielded unambiguous net benefits for a country’s economic development. As a general rule arms trade offset deals are more costly than ‘off-the-shelf’ arms purchases, create little by way of new or sustainable employment, do not appear to contribute in any substantive way to general economic development, and with very few exceptions do not result in significant technology transfers, not even within the military sector.

Homicide Cycles in Colombia

We estimate a model to account for homicide cycles in Colombia, 1950-1999. The variables that together account for about eighty percent of the variation in murder cycles are the years of Colombia(s La Violencia period, the years of collusion between the two establishment parties (the National Front years), the inflation-adjusted trade balance and real social expenditure, both in per capita terms, and the size of Colombia(s military forces as a proxy for all armed forces (military, para-military, guerrilla, and drug-related) in the country.Latin America, Colombia, homicide cycles

Arms Trade Offsets: What Do We Know?

This chapter is a review of our empirical knowledge regarding arms trade offsets. Extant evidence suggests that offset arrangements do not yield net benefits for a country’s economic development. As a general rule arms trade offset deals are more costly than off-the-shelf arms purchases, create little by way of new or sustainable employment, do not appear to contribute in any substantive way to general economic development, and with very few exceptions do not result in significant technology transfers, not even within the military sector. As of 2009, the United States and the European Union have taken official government positions against offset deals. Nonetheless, arms trade offsets are a flourishing practice.Arms Offsets; defence; arms trade

On the Cost of Violence and the Benefits of Peace

Wars can be immensely damaging to economies, and they can leave long-lasting scars on society. What are considered to be postwar or postviolence situations can see ongoing nonwar political, domestic, and criminal violence, with war economies not ending with the formal cessation of hostilities. Unarmed violence can have important effects and even forms of nonviolent conflict can carry substantial, measurable economic consequences. Surprisingly little substantive economics work on the subject is done particularly work that would deal with the possible paths countries can take from crises and there seems to exist an unfortunate lack of understanding among economists of the complexities of war and violence and its impact on economy and society, leaving a sometimes unrecognized legacy of violence and loss. This essay deals with some of the issues involved.Macroeconomics; violence; costs and benefits; peace; conflict-affected states

Macroeconomics and Violence

This chapter considers macroeconomic aspects of violence. It moves beyond the usual focus on war to argue the economic importance of all forms and aspects of armed and unarmed violence. Violence refers to acts of self-harm, interpersonal violence, and collective violence. Self-harm includes suicide; interpersonal violence includes organized criminal violence as well as domestic and workplace violence. Collective violence generally denotes political entities that are in, or at risk of, internal or external violent conflict as well as those that are in an insecure postwar predicament or wracked by pervasive armed criminal violence. In the past these different aspects of violence have been studied by different academic disciplines, with political scientists and defense economists tending to study the causes, consequences, and, lately, potential remedies of large-scale collective violence; and criminologists, public health experts, and crime economists tending to study interpersonal violence and self harm. Recognizing the economic importance of all aspects of violence means that macroeconomic policy cannot be considered in isolation from microeconomic developments or from regional, sectoral, distributional, and other economic policies, nor from the social contexts in which violence takes place. The increasing complexity and interrelatedness of the various aspects of the economics of violence means that any discussion of the macroeconomic issues has to consider the cost of conflict and violence more broadly conceived. The chapter reviews violence, measures and measurements of the cost of violence, the economic causes and consequences of violence, some macroeconomic aspects of recovery from violence and postwar reconstruction, and some of the necessary framework conditions for recovery from violence.Keywords: Violence, macroeconomics, postconflict recovery, conflict-affected states

A visual investigation of turbulence in stagnation flow about a circular cylinder

A visual investigation of turbulence in stagnation flow around a circular cylinder was carried out in order to gain a physical insight into the model advocated by the corticity-amplification theory. Motion pictures were taken from three different viewpoints, and a frame by frame examination of selected movie strips was conducted. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of the flow events focused on tracing the temporal and spatial evolution of a cross-vortex tube outlined by the entrained smoke filaments. The visualization supplied evidence verifying: (1) the selective stretching of cross-vortex tubes which is responsible for the amplification of cross vorticity and, hence, of streamwise turbulence; (2) the streamwise tilting of stretched cross-vortex tubes; (3) the existence of a coherent array of vortices near the stagnation zone; (4) the interaction of the amplified vorticity with the body laminar boundary layer; and, (5) the growth of a turbulent boundary layer

Coherent substructure of turbulence near the stagnation zone of a bluff body

The evolution of freestream turbulence in crossflow about a circular cylinder was studied in order to identify the existence of a coherent substructure which is the outcome of the amplification of freesteam turbulence by the stretching mechanism in diverging flow about a bluff body. Visualization of the flow events revealed the selective stretching of cross-vortex tubes and the emergence of an organized turbulent flow pattern near the cylinder stagnation zone. Significant amplification of the total turbulent energy of the streamwise fluctuating velocity was consistently monitored. Realization of selective amplification at scales larger than the neutral scale of the stagnation flow was indicated by the variation of the discrete streamwise turbulent energy. A most amplified scale, characteristic of the energy containing eddies within the coherent substructure and commensurate with the boundary-layer thickness, was detected. Penetration of the amplified turbulence into the cylinder boundary layer led to the retardation of separation and to a concurrent decrease in the drag coefficient at subcritical cylinder-diameter Reynolds numbers

Human activity modeling and Barabasi's queueing systems

It has been shown by A.-L. Barabasi that the priority based scheduling rules in single stage queuing systems (QS) generates fat tail behavior for the tasks waiting time distributions (WTD). Such fat tails are due to the waiting times of very low priority tasks which stay unserved almost forever as the task priority indices (PI) are "frozen in time" (i.e. a task priority is assigned once for all to each incoming task). Relaxing the "frozen in time" assumption, this paper studies the new dynamic behavior expected when the priority of each incoming tasks is time-dependent (i.e. "aging mechanisms" are allowed). For two class of models, namely 1) a population type model with an age structure and 2) a QS with deadlines assigned to the incoming tasks which is operated under the "earliest-deadline-first" policy, we are able to analytically extract some relevant characteristics of the the tasks waiting time distribution. As the aging mechanism ultimately assign high priority to any long waiting tasks, fat tails in the WTD cannot find their origin in the scheduling rule alone thus showing a fundamental difference between the present and the A.-L. Barabasi's class of models.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figure