Homicide Cycles in Colombia

Abstract

We estimate a model to account for homicide cycles in Colombia, 1950-1999. The variables that together account for about eighty percent of the variation in murder cycles are the years of Colombia(s La Violencia period, the years of collusion between the two establishment parties (the National Front years), the inflation-adjusted trade balance and real social expenditure, both in per capita terms, and the size of Colombia(s military forces as a proxy for all armed forces (military, para-military, guerrilla, and drug-related) in the country.Latin America, Colombia, homicide cycles