Optimal numerical strategy for unsteady natural convection in two and three dimensions

Analyses of accuracy and computational cost of finite difference methods in computational fluid dynamics have illustrated a criterion for the minimum order for efficient calculations. This criterion favours the use of higher than second order methods when modelling greater than two space-time dimensions. These analyses have assumed the dominant length scale to be homogeneous throughout the model domain. Natural convection in a cavity can exhibit inhomogeneity of the smallest dominant length scales in identifiable sub-domains. Any inhomogeneity of this nature is shown to have a significant impact on the computational efficiency. This extended analysis suggests that an optimally efficient numerical calculation for unsteady natural convection requires: a non-uniform grid that complements the distribution of length scales to obtain a homogeneous non-dimensional grid scale; and a numerical order equal to or greater than the space-time dimension

Forecast Errors, Goodness, and Verification in Ocean Forecasting

Verification is an essential part of the forecast process that provides guidance on the statistical behavior of the system and a framework by which a forecast can be assessed for its goodness. Much of the framework applicable to ocean forecasting has been developed within the atmospheric community. A review of the available material is given with some commentary on its relevance in the context of ocean forecasting. A statistical theory is presented for errors in an ocean forecast system (both deterministic and ensemble) and for a number of verification metrics. Theoretical results are demonstrated with empirical models and results from an operational ocean forecast system. Some new results are presented comparing the mean absolute error and root mean square error and the inference hypothesis testing of ensemble forecast systems. The progress in ocean verification is discussed, as are advances in technology to analyze international verification databases

Sea level pressure response to the specification of eddy-resolving sea surface temperature in simulations of Australian east coast lows

Four east coast lows (ECLs) were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecast model to investigate the influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution on the sea level pressure (SLP). Each ECL was simulated with two different SST datasets: the Bluelink SST field and NCEP skin temperature field. The former resolved eddies in the East Australian Current while the latter did not. The simulated SLP fields in the eddy-resolving SST runs were compared with those in the non-eddy-resolving SST runs. On time-scales of about 48 hours, higher SSTs were asso-ciated with lower SLPs. The spatial scale of the SLP response was similar to that of the ocean eddies, indicative of the rapidity and robustness of the response given the rapidly evolving conditions within the storms. On shorter time-scales, the SLP response to SST change can become substantially larger. The largest reductions in SLP in the eddy-resolving SST runs were associated with regions of deep atmospheric convection that warm the tropospheric column. These areas were shown to be related to the SST distribution with the greatest SLP reductions associated with convection over strong SST gradient regions. The landfall of a damaging convective mesoscale low pressure system on 8 June 2007 was also investigated. It was found that a region of strong SST gradients on the southern flank of a large warm ocean eddy was associated with lower pressures at the time of formation of this meso-low. In addition, the only case that simulated the low pressure at the correct time (albeit at not quite the correct location) was the eddy-resolved SST run. It was hy-pothesized that the development of this meso-low that impacted the coast around Newcastle, was enhanced because of the eddy-scale SST distribution at the time

ACCESS-OM2 v1.0: a global ocean-sea ice model at three resolutions

We introduce ACCESS-OM2, a new version of the ocean–sea ice model of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator. ACCESS-OM2 is driven by a prescribed atmosphere (JRA55-do) but has been designed to form the ocean–sea ice component of the fully coupled (atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice) ACCESS-CM2 model. Importantly, the model is available at three different horizontal resolutions: a coarse resolution (nominally 1∘ horizontal grid spacing), an eddy-permitting resolution (nominally 0.25∘), and an eddy-rich resolution (0.1∘ with 75 vertical levels); the eddy-rich model is designed to be incorporated into the Bluelink operational ocean prediction and reanalysis system. The different resolutions have been developed simultaneously, both to allow for testing at lower resolutions and to permit comparison across resolutions. In this paper, the model is introduced and the individual components are documented. The model performance is evaluated across the three different resolutions, highlighting the relative advantages and disadvantages of running ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution. We find that higher resolution is an advantage in resolving flow through small straits, the structure of western boundary currents, and the abyssal overturning cell but that there is scope for improvements in sub-grid-scale parameterizations at the highest resolution

ACCESS-OM2 v1.0: A global ocean-sea ice model at three resolutions

We introduce ACCESS-OM2, a new version of the ocean–sea ice model of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator. ACCESS-OM2 is driven by a prescribed atmosphere (JRA55-do) but has been designed to form the ocean–sea ice component of the fully coupled (atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice) ACCESS-CM2 model. Importantly, the model is available at three different horizontal resolutions: a coarse resolution (nominally 1∘ horizontal grid spacing), an eddy-permitting resolution (nominally 0.25∘), and an eddy-rich resolution (0.1∘ with 75 vertical levels); the eddy-rich model is designed to be incorporated into the Bluelink operational ocean prediction and reanalysis system. The different resolutions have been developed simultaneously, both to allow for testing at lower resolutions and to permit comparison across resolutions. In this paper, the model is introduced and the individual components are documented. The model performance is evaluated across the three different resolutions, highlighting the relative advantages and disadvantages of running ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution. We find that higher resolution is an advantage in resolving flow through small straits, the structure of western boundary currents, and the abyssal overturning cell but that there is scope for improvements in sub-grid-scale parameterizations at the highest resolution.This research has been supported by the Australian Research Council (grant nos. LP160100073, CE170100023, FT13101532, DP160103130 and DE170100184), the International Space Science Institute (grant no. 406), and the Australian Antarctic Science (grant nos. 4301 and 4390)

Small molecule binding sites on the Ras:SOS complex can be exploited for inhibition of Ras activation.

Constitutively active mutant KRas displays a reduced rate of GTP hydrolysis via both intrinsic and GTPase-activating protein-catalyzed mechanisms, resulting in the perpetual activation of Ras pathways. We describe a fragment screening campaign using X-ray crystallography that led to the discovery of three fragment binding sites on the Ras:SOS complex. The identification of tool compounds binding at each of these sites allowed exploration of two new approaches to Ras pathway inhibition by stabilizing or covalently modifying the Ras:SOS complex to prevent the reloading of Ras with GTP. Initially, we identified ligands that bound reversibly to the Ras:SOS complex in two distinct sites, but these compounds were not sufficiently potent inhibitors to validate our stabilization hypothesis. We conclude by demonstrating that covalent modification of Cys118 on Ras leads to a novel mechanism of inhibition of the SOS-mediated interaction between Ras and Raf and is effective at inhibiting the exchange of labeled GDP in both mutant (G12C and G12V) and wild type Ras

Fourth- and fifth-order finite-difference methods applied to a control-volume ocean model

A semi-implicit, control-volume, nonhydrostatic model is presented. Advection is fifth order with respect to space. Boundary conditions and molecular fluxes are also formulated at fourth order with respect to space. Computational cost is strictly proportional to the number of grid points. Barotropic and nonhydrostatic pressure gradients are calculated using fourth-order explicit calculation followed by a second-order implicit correction for the incremental pressure gradient updates. This strategy is used in the DieCAST model in order to ensure accurate treatment of geostrophy with minimal computational cost, and here it is diagnosed to be advantageous for both small- and large-scale convective flows. Anisotropic grids can result in the vertical Courant number being much larger than the horizontal Courant number, in which case it may be advantageous to use a time step–limited horizontal advection scheme with a more computationally expensive but time step–unlimited vertical advection scheme. An anisotropic grid also admits a quasi one-dimensional calculation of nonhydrostatic pressure, which is not computationally expensive. A two-scale calculation of convecting cells in the deep ocean indicates that, in this circumstance, subgrid-scale processes cannot be parameterized by any means that causes smoothing

Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

A system for providing routine seven-day forecasts of sea level observable at tide gauge locations is described and evaluated. Forecast time series are aggregated from well-established operational systems of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; although following some adjustments these systems are only quasi-complimentary. Target applications are routine coastal decision processes under non-extreme conditions. The configuration aims to be relatively robust to operational realities such as version upgrades, data gaps and metadata ambiguities. Forecast skill is evaluated against hourly tide gauge observations. Characteristics of the bias correction term are demonstrated to be primarily static in time, with time varying signals showing regional coherence. This simple approach to exploiting existing complex systems can offer valuable levels of skill at a range of Australian locations. The prospect of interpolation between observation sites and exploitation of lagged-ensemble uncertainty estimates could be meaningfully pursued. Skill characteristics define a benchmark against which new operational sea level forecasting systems can be measured. More generally, an aggregation approach may prove to be optimal for routine sea level forecast services given the physically inhomogeneous processes involved and ability to incorporate ongoing improvements and extensions of source systems