Bayesian Bootstrap Inference for the ROC Surface

Accurate diagnosis of disease is of great importance in clinical practice and medical research. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface is a popular tool for evaluating the discriminatory ability of continuous diagnostic test outcomes when there exist three ordered disease classes (e.g., no disease, mild disease, advanced disease). We propose the Bayesian bootstrap, a fully nonparametric method, for conducting inference about the ROC surface and its functionals, such as the volume under the surface. The proposed method is based on a simple, yet interesting, representation of the ROC surface in terms of placement variables. Results from a simulation study demonstrate the ability of our method to successfully recover the true ROC surface and to produce valid inferences in a variety of complex scenarios. An application to data from the Trail Making Test to assess cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease patients is provided

Optimising the detectability of H5N1 and H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in Vietnamese live-bird markets

Live bird markets (LBMs) are major targets for avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance programmes. While sampling the LBM environment has become a widely used alternative to the labour-intensive sampling of live poultry, the design of surveillance programmes and the interpretation of their results are compromised by the lack of knowledge about the effectiveness of these sampling strategies. We used latent class models and a unique empirical dataset collated in Vietnamese LBMs to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five different sample types for detecting AIVs subtypes H5N1 and H5N6: oropharyngeal duck samples, solid and liquid wastes, poultry drinking water and faeces. Results suggest that the sensitivity of environmental samples for detecting H5N1 viruses is equivalent to that of oropharyngeal duck samples; however, taking oropharyngeal duck samples was estimated to be more effective in detecting H5N6 viruses than taking any of the four environmental samples. This study also stressed that the specificity of the current surveillance strategy in LBMs was not optimal leading to some false positive LBMs. Using simulations, we identified 42 sampling strategies more parsimonious than the current strategy and expected to be highly sensitive for both viruses at the LBM level. All of these strategies involved the collection of both environmental and oropharyngeal duck samples

Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis in Madagascar: Comparison of immuno-diagnostic techniques and estimation of the prevalence in pork carcasses traded in Antananarivo city

Taenia solium cysticercosis was reported in official veterinary and medical statistics to be highly prevalent in pigs and humans in Madagascar, but few estimates are available for pigs. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of porcine cysticercosis among pigs slaughtered in Antananarivo abattoirs. Firstly, the diagnostic performance of two antigen-ELISA techniques (B158B60 Ag-ELISA and HP10 Ag-ELISA) and an immunoblotting method were compared with meat inspection procedures on a sample of pigs suspected to be infected with (group 1; n = 250) or free of (group 2; n = 250) T. solium based on direct veterinary inspection in Madagascar. Sensitivity and specificity of the antigen ELISAs were then estimated using a Bayesian approach for detection of porcine cysticercosis in the absence of a gold standard. Then, a third set of pig sera (group 3, n = 250) was randomly collected in Antananarivo slaughterhouses and tested to estimate the overall prevalence of T. solium contamination in pork meat traded in Antananarivo. The antigen ELISAs showed a high sensitivity (>84%), but the B158B60 Ag-ELISA appeared to be more specific than the HP10 Ag-ELISA (model 1: 95% vs 74%; model 2: 87% vs 71%). The overall prevalence of porcine cysticercosis in Antananarivo slaughterhouses was estimated at 2.3% (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.09–9.1%) to 2.6% (95%CrI: 0.1–10.3%) depending on the model and priors used. Since the sample used in this study is not representative of the national pig population, village-based surveys and longitudinal monitoring at slaughter are needed to better estimate the overall prevalence, geographical patterns and main risk factors for T. solium contamination, in order to improve control policies. (Résumé d'auteur

Diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of alternative methods for detection of soil-transmitted helminths in a post-treatment setting in western Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of the Kato-Katz and Mini-FLOTAC methods for detection of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in a post-treatment setting in western Kenya. A cost analysis also explores the cost implications of collecting samples during school surveys when compared to household surveys. METHODS: Stool samples were collected from children (n = 652) attending 18 schools in Bungoma County and diagnosed by the Kato-Katz and Mini-FLOTAC coprological methods. Sensitivity and additional diagnostic performance measures were analyzed using Bayesian latent class modeling. Financial and economic costs were calculated for all survey and diagnostic activities, and cost per child tested, cost per case detected and cost per STH infection correctly classified were estimated. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of various survey parameters on cost estimates. RESULTS: Both diagnostic methods exhibited comparable sensitivity for detection of any STH species over single and consecutive day sampling: 52.0% for single day Kato-Katz; 49.1% for single-day Mini-FLOTAC; 76.9% for consecutive day Kato-Katz; and 74.1% for consecutive day Mini-FLOTAC. Diagnostic performance did not differ significantly between methods for the different STH species. Use of Kato-Katz with school-based sampling was the lowest cost scenario for cost per child tested ($10.14) and cost per case correctly classified ($12.84). Cost per case detected was lowest for Kato-Katz used in community-based sampling ($128.24). Sensitivity analysis revealed the cost of case detection for any STH decreased non-linearly as prevalence rates increased and was influenced by the number of samples collected. CONCLUSIONS: The Kato-Katz method was comparable in diagnostic sensitivity to the Mini-FLOTAC method, but afforded greater cost-effectiveness. Future work is required to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of STH surveillance in different settings