Geographic range predicts photosynthetic and growth response to warming in co-occurring tree species

www.nature.comPopulations near the warm edge of species ranges may be particularly sensitive to climate change, but lack of empirical data on responses to warming represents a key gap in understanding future range dynamics. Herein we document the impacts of experimental warming on the performance of 11 boreal and temperate forest species that co-occur at the ecotone between these biomes in North America. We measured in situ net photosynthetic carbon gain and growth of >4,100 juvenile trees from local seed sources exposed to a chamberless warming experiment that used infrared heat lamps and soil heating cables to elevate temperatures by +3.4 °C above- and belowground for three growing seasons across 48 plots at two sites. In these ecologically realistic field settings, species growing nearest their warm range limit exhibited reductions in net photosynthesis and growth, whereas species near their cold range limit responded positively to warming. Differences among species in their three-year growth responses to warming parallel their photosynthetic responses to warming, suggesting that leaf-level responses may scale to whole-plant performance. These responses are consistent with the hypothesis, from observational data and models, that warming will reduce the competitive ability of currently dominant southern boreal species compared with locally rarer co-occurring species that dominate warmer neighbouring regions. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe

The suitability of MIS 11c and MIS 19c as analogues of our present interglacial and its natural evolution is still debated. Here we examine the regional expression of the Holocene and its orbital analogues over SW Iberia using a model-data comparison approach. Regional tree fraction and climate based on snapshot and transient experiments using the LOVECLIM model are evaluated against the terrestrial-marine profiles from Site U1385 documenting the regional vegetation and climatic changes. The pollen-based reconstructions show a larger forest optimum during the Holocene compared to MIS 11c and MIS 19c, putting into question their analogy in SW Europe. Pollen-based and model results indicate reduced MIS 11c forest cover compared to the Holocene primarily driven by lower winter precipitation, which is critical for Mediterranean forest development. Decreased precipitation was possibly induced by the amplified MIS 11c latitudinal insolation and temperature gradient that shifted the westerlies northwards. In contrast, the reconstructed lower forest optimum at MIS 19c is not reproduced by the simulations probably due to the lack of Eurasian ice sheets and its related feedbacks in the model. Transient experiments with time-varying insolation and CO2 reveal that the SW Iberian forest dynamics over the interglacials are mostly coupled to changes in winter precipitation mainly controlled by precession, CO2 playing a negligible role. Model simulations reproduce the observed persistent vegetation changes at millennial time scales in SW Iberia and the strong forest reductions marking the end of the interglacial "optimum".SFRH/BD/9079/2012, SFRH/BPD/108712/2015, SFRH/BPD/108600/2015info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio